Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Up 60%
4 arb excluded
$1.9K
-$152.54
Smart Money Signal
10 of 16 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 82¢ | $492.96 | $566.59 | +$73.63 | 66% 99403-51545 (150948) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 86.3¢ | $286.09 | $254.25 | -$31.83 | 50% 5477-5524 (11001) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 22.2¢ | $201.85 | $165.46 | -$36.38 | 55% 15710-13078 (28788) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.3¢ | $93.16 | $165.46 | +$72.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 22.2¢ | $108.69 | — | -$108.69 | |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 89.3¢ | $188.82 | $179.01 | -$9.81 | 54% 8224-6907 (15131) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 71.1¢ | $108.24 | $129.83 | +$21.59 | 60% 12450-8258 (20708) |
 pspspsps5CTR | Downavg 48.6¢ | $135.58 | — | -$135.58 | 46% 38451-45413 (83864) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 76.1¢ | $102.26 | $89.99 | -$12.26 | 57% 12676-9740 (22416) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 76.1¢ | $68.46 | $89.99 | +$21.53 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 14.7¢ | $33.79 | — | -$33.79 | |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 23.5¢ | $133.9 | $62.62 | -$71.28 | 56% 13958-11077 (25035) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 76.4¢ | $47.87 | $62.62 | +$14.75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 23.5¢ | $86.03 | — | -$86.03 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 95.5¢ | $96.11 | $100.65 | +$4.54 | 58% 60853-44436 (105289) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 97¢ | $111.95 | $88 | -$23.9 | 55% 7664-6267 (13931) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 87.5¢ | $87.65 | $94.35 | +$6.69 | 55% 8834-7294 (16128) |
 OhioRiskManagementARB<$100 | Downavg 52.1¢ | $125.75 | $38.71 | -$87.04 | 49% 78295-81799 (160094) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 89.9¢ | $34.79 | $38.71 | +$3.92 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.1¢ | $90.96 | — | -$90.96 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $65.46 | $63.18 | +$11.24 | 64% 24274-13401 (37675) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $40.5 | — | -$40.5 | 56% 8178-6319 (14497) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $17.6 | $20 | +$2.4 | 55% 24070-19444 (43514) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 51.5¢ | $10.43 | — | -$10.43 | 59% 6966-4892 (11858) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $6.74 | — | -$6.74 | 35% 18993-35997 (54990) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $4 | — | -$4 | 64% 40419-23136 (63555) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 44.8¢ | $9.85 | — | -$9.85 | 55% 18138-14723 (32861) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3673-2843 (6516) |
Invested
$492.96
Value
$566.59
PnL
+$73.63
Record
66%
99403-51545 (150948)
Invested
$286.09
Value
$254.25
PnL
-$31.83
Record
50%
5477-5524 (11001)
Invested
$201.85
Value
$165.46
PnL
-$36.38
Record
55%
15710-13078 (28788)
Both legs:
Invested
$188.82
Value
$179.01
PnL
-$9.81
Record
54%
8224-6907 (15131)
Invested
$108.24
Value
$129.83
PnL
+$21.59
Record
60%
12450-8258 (20708)
pspspsps5CTRInvested
$135.58
Value
—
PnL
-$135.58
Record
46%
38451-45413 (83864)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$102.26
Value
$89.99
PnL
-$12.26
Record
57%
12676-9740 (22416)
Both legs:
Invested
$133.9
Value
$62.62
PnL
-$71.28
Record
56%
13958-11077 (25035)
Both legs:
Invested
$96.11
Value
$100.65
PnL
+$4.54
Record
58%
60853-44436 (105289)
Invested
$111.95
Value
$88
PnL
-$23.9
Record
55%
7664-6267 (13931)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$87.65
Value
$94.35
PnL
+$6.69
Record
55%
8834-7294 (16128)
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100Invested
$125.75
Value
$38.71
PnL
-$87.04
Record
49%
78295-81799 (160094)
Both legs:
Invested
$65.46
Value
$63.18
PnL
+$11.24
Record
64%
24274-13401 (37675)
Invested
$40.5
Value
—
PnL
-$40.5
Record
56%
8178-6319 (14497)
Invested
$17.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$2.4
Record
55%
24070-19444 (43514)
Invested
$10.43
Value
—
PnL
-$10.43
Record
59%
6966-4892 (11858)
Invested
$6.74
Value
—
PnL
-$6.74
Record
35%
18993-35997 (54990)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$4
Value
—
PnL
-$4
Record
64%
40419-23136 (63555)
Invested
$9.85
Value
—
PnL
-$9.85
Record
55%
18138-14723 (32861)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3673-2843 (6516)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Up — $566.59
ply-pm0
Up — $254.25
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
sfkjbsr457
Up — $179.01
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $129.83
pspspsps5
CTRDown — $0
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $100.65
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $88