Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 61%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$41.06

Smart Money Signal

12 of 19 top traders (63%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares715

Combined PnL-$141.53

Up12 traders

Total Value$252.79

Total Shares253

Combined PnL+$100.46

Down — 37%Up — 63%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 43.6¢	$375.19	$341.17	-$34.02	55% 15710-13078 (28788)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.6¢	$220.45	—	-$220.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.4¢	$154.74	$341.17	+$186.43
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 42.5¢	$273.26	$323.58	+$50.32	50% 5477-5524 (11001)
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.7¢	$135.62	—	-$135.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.5¢	$137.63	$323.58	+$185.94
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 4¢	$20.04	—	-$20.04	59% 62529-43642 (106171)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 52.6¢	$260.82	$306.54	+$45.73	56% 13958-11077 (25035)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.7¢	$99.71	—	-$99.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.6¢	$161.11	$306.54	+$145.43
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 56.5¢	$190.63	$234.69	+$44.06	54% 8224-6907 (15131)
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.9¢	$58.05	—	-$58.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.5¢	$132.58	$234.69	+$102.12
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 43.9¢	$153.95	$201.01	+$47.05	66% 99403-51545 (150948)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.9¢	$88.3	$201.01	+$112.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.4¢	$65.65	—	-$65.65
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 59.5¢	$189.61	$270.86	+$81.25	57% 12676-9740 (22416)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.5¢	$161.22	$270.86	+$109.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.2¢	$28.4	—	-$28.4
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 44.3¢	$101.38	$142.57	+$41.19	60% 12450-8258 (20708)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.3¢	$63.18	$142.57	+$79.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.6¢	$38.2	—	-$38.2
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 91.4¢	$126.33	$95.5	-$30.83	65% 125977-67395 (193372)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64¢	$39	—	-$39
└ Up leg	Upavg 91.4¢	$87.33	$95.5	+$8.17
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$59.84	—	-$58.64	55% 7664-6267 (13931)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$27.87	—	-$27.87	46% 38451-45413 (83864)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 52¢	$26	$50	+$24	58% 51216-37341 (88557)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 45.4¢	$24.59	$54.12	+$29.53	66% 112373-59102 (171475)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 50.2¢	$25.5	$50.76	+$25.26	62% 44057-27075 (71132)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 20¢	$8.21	—	-$7.5	64% 24274-13401 (37675)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 53¢	$10.92	—	-$10.92	49% 78295-81799 (160094)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 89¢	$28.64	$32.18	+$3.54	74% 102879-36496 (139375)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 99¢	$10.07	$10.17	+$0.1	63% 52248-31272 (83520)
PA Parad0XCTR<$100	Downavg 55¢	$10.2	—	-$10.2	56% 2253-1755 (4008)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 65.7¢	$13.44	$20.45	+$7.01	65% 4179-2286 (6465)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$6.37	—	-$6.37	59% 6966-4892 (11858)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 90¢	$9.2	$10.22	+$1.02	66% 126616-65192 (191808)
LI Little-big<$100	Upavg 53¢	$3.73	$7.03	+$3.3	35% 18993-35997 (54990)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 86¢	$6.76	$7.86	+$1.1	56% 58419-45082 (103501)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 50¢	$2.5	$5	+$2.5	56% 8178-6319 (14497)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$375.19

Value

$341.17

PnL

-$34.02

Record

55%

15710-13078 (28788)

Both legs:

Down$220.4543.6¢-$220.45

Up$154.7445.4¢+$186.43

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$273.26

Value

$323.58

PnL

+$50.32

Record

50%

5477-5524 (11001)

Both legs:

Down$135.6231.7¢-$135.62

Up$137.6342.5¢+$185.94

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$20.04

Value

—

PnL

-$20.04

Record

59%

62529-43642 (106171)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$260.82

Value

$306.54

PnL

+$45.73

Record

56%

13958-11077 (25035)

Both legs:

Down$99.7139.7¢-$99.71

Up$161.1152.6¢+$145.43

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$190.63

Value

$234.69

PnL

+$44.06

Record

54%

8224-6907 (15131)

Both legs:

Down$58.0525.9¢-$58.05

Up$132.5856.5¢+$102.12

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$153.95

Value

$201.01

PnL

+$47.05

Record

66%

99403-51545 (150948)

Both legs:

Up$88.343.9¢+$112.7

Down$65.6559.4¢-$65.65

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$189.61

Value

$270.86

PnL

+$81.25

Record

57%

12676-9740 (22416)

Both legs:

Up$161.2259.5¢+$109.65

Down$28.446.2¢-$28.4

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$101.38

Value

$142.57

PnL

+$41.19

Record

60%

12450-8258 (20708)

Both legs:

Up$63.1844.3¢+$79.39

Down$38.251.6¢-$38.2

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$126.33

Value

$95.5

PnL

-$30.83

Record

65%

125977-67395 (193372)

Both legs:

Down$3964¢-$39

Up$87.3391.4¢+$8.17

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$59.84

Value

—

PnL

-$58.64

Record

55%

7664-6267 (13931)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$27.87

Value

—

PnL

-$27.87

Record

46%

38451-45413 (83864)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$26

Value

$50

PnL

+$24

Record

58%

51216-37341 (88557)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$24.59

Value

$54.12

PnL

+$29.53

Record

66%

112373-59102 (171475)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$25.5

Value

$50.76

PnL

+$25.26

Record

62%

44057-27075 (71132)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.21

Value

—

PnL

-$7.5

Record

64%

24274-13401 (37675)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.92

Value

—

PnL

-$10.92

Record

49%

78295-81799 (160094)

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$28.64

Value

$32.18

PnL

+$3.54

Record

74%

102879-36496 (139375)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$10.07

Value

$10.17

PnL

+$0.1

Record

63%

52248-31272 (83520)

Parad0XCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.2

Value

—

PnL

-$10.2

Record

56%

2253-1755 (4008)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$13.44

Value

$20.45

PnL

+$7.01

Record

65%

4179-2286 (6465)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.37

Value

—

PnL

-$6.37

Record

59%

6966-4892 (11858)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$9.2

Value

$10.22

PnL

+$1.02

Record

66%

126616-65192 (191808)

Little-big<$100

Invested

$3.73

Value

$7.03

PnL

+$3.3

Record

35%

18993-35997 (54990)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$6.76

Value

$7.86

PnL

+$1.1

Record

56%

58419-45082 (103501)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

PnL

+$2.5

Record

56%

8178-6319 (14497)

Smart Money Signal

12 of 19 top traders (63%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x96c79aa7...8f81b8

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793487300

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

0x50f7

Down — $0

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

drfc4eybh7i8

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

CTR

Down — $0

-$58.64

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