Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 85%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$193.33

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 26 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,218

Combined PnL+$321.44

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares466

Combined PnL-$128.11

Down — 85%Up — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$2.46	59% 62529-43642 (106171)
machinelearned	Downavg 85.6¢	$403.56	$469.64	+$66.08	55% 8834-7294 (16128)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 85.8¢	$315.97	$368.24	+$52.27	57% 71395-54409 (125804)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 87.1¢	$292.98	$292.29	-$0.69	54% 8224-6907 (15131)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 73.8¢	$187.1	$253.39	+$66.29	58% 38241-27378 (65619)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 87.1¢	$169.52	$170.27	+$0.76	50% 5477-5524 (11001)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 83.6¢	$150.83	$165.42	+$14.59	57% 12676-9740 (22416)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 80.5¢	$138.03	$171.42	+$33.39	58% 60853-44436 (105289)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 83.8¢	$140.6	$144.28	+$3.68	66% 99403-51545 (150948)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 86.8¢	$134.66	$150.11	+$15.55	55% 7664-6267 (13931)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 11.7¢	$79.32	$35.28	-$44.04	55% 15710-13078 (28788)
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.7¢	$55.78	—	-$55.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.7¢	$23.53	$35.28	+$11.75
ohioism	Downavg 74.8¢	$75	$100.27	+$25.27	64% 40419-23136 (63555)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$73.74	—	-$73.74	56% 8178-6319 (14497)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 83.3¢	$51.83	$53.11	+$1.29	60% 12450-8258 (20708)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 95¢	$51.18	$53.87	+$2.69	52% 90943-85477 (176420)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 92.4¢	$49.14	$53.19	+$4.05	61% 95475-60241 (155716)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 88.3¢	$46.18	$52.3	+$6.12	64% 24274-13401 (37675)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 92¢	$46.84	$50.92	+$4.08	66% 126616-65192 (191808)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 93¢	$42.78	$46	+$3.22	49% 78295-81799 (160094)
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100	Upavg 9.9¢	$33.86	—	-$33.86	56% 13958-11077 (25035)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 84.9¢	$35.1	$41.34	+$6.24	55% 18138-14723 (32861)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 84¢	$29.99	$35.71	+$5.71	66% 112373-59102 (171475)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 94.3¢	$26.8	$25.74	-$1.06	46% 38451-45413 (83864)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 87¢	$26.1	$30	+$3.9	74% 102879-36496 (139375)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 78¢	$19.75	$25.32	+$5.57	56% 58419-45082 (103501)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$2,462.49

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$2.46

Record

59%

62529-43642 (106171)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$403.56

Value

$469.64

PnL

+$66.08

Record

55%

8834-7294 (16128)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$315.97

Value

$368.24

PnL

+$52.27

Record

57%

71395-54409 (125804)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$292.98

Value

$292.29

PnL

-$0.69

Record

54%

8224-6907 (15131)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$187.1

Value

$253.39

PnL

+$66.29

Record

58%

38241-27378 (65619)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$169.52

Value

$170.27

PnL

+$0.76

Record

50%

5477-5524 (11001)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$150.83

Value

$165.42

PnL

+$14.59

Record

57%

12676-9740 (22416)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$138.03

Value

$171.42

PnL

+$33.39

Record

58%

60853-44436 (105289)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$140.6

Value

$144.28

PnL

+$3.68

Record

66%

99403-51545 (150948)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$134.66

Value

$150.11

PnL

+$15.55

Record

55%

7664-6267 (13931)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$79.32

Value

$35.28

PnL

-$44.04

Record

55%

15710-13078 (28788)

Both legs:

Up$55.7811.7¢-$55.78

Down$23.5366.7¢+$11.75

ohioism

Down

Invested

$75

Value

$100.27

PnL

+$25.27

Record

64%

40419-23136 (63555)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$73.74

Value

—

PnL

-$73.74

Record

56%

8178-6319 (14497)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$51.83

Value

$53.11

PnL

+$1.29

Record

60%

12450-8258 (20708)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$51.18

Value

$53.87

PnL

+$2.69

Record

52%

90943-85477 (176420)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$49.14

Value

$53.19

PnL

+$4.05

Record

61%

95475-60241 (155716)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$46.18

Value

$52.3

PnL

+$6.12

Record

64%

24274-13401 (37675)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$46.84

Value

$50.92

PnL

+$4.08

Record

66%

126616-65192 (191808)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$42.78

Value

$46

PnL

+$3.22

Record

49%

78295-81799 (160094)

GoodFallenCTR<$100

Invested

$33.86

Value

—

PnL

-$33.86

Record

56%

13958-11077 (25035)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$35.1

Value

$41.34

PnL

+$6.24

Record

55%

18138-14723 (32861)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$29.99

Value

$35.71

PnL

+$5.71

Record

66%

112373-59102 (171475)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$26.8

Value

$25.74

PnL

-$1.06

Record

46%

38451-45413 (83864)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$26.1

Value

$30

PnL

+$3.9

Record

74%

102879-36496 (139375)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$19.75

Value

$25.32

PnL

+$5.57

Record

56%

58419-45082 (103501)

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 26 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa8b5aed7...89e0c6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793486700

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $2.5K

+$2.46

machinelearned

Down — $469.64

+$66.08

uninformedfloww

Down — $368.24

+$52.27

sfkjbsr457

Down — $292.29

-$0.69

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $253.39

+$66.29

ply-pm0

Down — $170.27

+$0.76

FairValueMachine

Down — $165.42

+$14.59

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $171.42

+$33.39

Bonereaper

Down — $144.28

+$3.68

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $150.11

+$15.55

Trade on Polymarket