Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 62%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.8K

Combined PnL

$-2.7K

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 21 top traders (62%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,670

Combined PnL$-3.5K

Up8 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,383

Combined PnL+$719.25

Down — 62%Up — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Up	$6.8K	$6.8K	+$71.71	56% 3673-2843 (6516)
└ Up leg	Up	$6.8K	$6.8K	+$2.5K
└ Down leg	Down	—	—	$-2.4K
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 47.6¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	57% 71395-54409 (125804)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 63.6¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$411.7	50% 5477-5524 (11001)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.7¢	$712.63	$1.1K	+$372.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.6¢	$784.45	—	-$784.45
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 45.5¢	$1.0K	$891.49	-$157.64	55% 15710-13078 (28788)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$445.36	$891.49	+$446.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.5¢	$603.77	—	-$603.77
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 50.8¢	$769.47	$1.0K	+$269.86	55% 7664-6267 (13931)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.8¢	$526.46	$1.0K	+$510.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.1¢	$240.47	—	-$240.47
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 52.3¢	$888.41	$677.17	-$211.24	60% 12450-8258 (20708)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54¢	$365.75	$677.17	+$311.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.3¢	$522.66	—	-$522.66
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 67.4¢	$613.02	—	-$613.02	58% 38241-27378 (65619)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$969.76	$980	+$10.24	93% 24047-1801 (25848)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 41.4¢	$572.89	$413.88	-$159.01	56% 13958-11077 (25035)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.4¢	$372.63	—	-$372.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.4¢	$200.27	$413.88	+$213.61
OhioRiskManagementCTR	Downavg 52.5¢	$338.54	—	-$338.54	49% 78295-81799 (160094)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 37¢	$326.83	$448.85	+$122.02	55% 8834-7294 (16128)
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.1¢	$121.45	$448.85	+$327.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 37¢	$205.38	—	-$205.38
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 57.5¢	$455.76	$429.29	-$26.46	57% 12676-9740 (22416)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.5¢	$246.74	$429.29	+$182.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.9¢	$209.02	—	-$209.02
pspspsps5CTR	Downavg 62.4¢	$335.05	—	-$335.05	46% 38451-45413 (83864)
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR	Downavg 69.6¢	$344.9	—	-$338.4	63% 1777-1035 (2812)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$480.3	$300.5	-$179.8	66% 99403-51545 (150948)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.6¢	$197.21	$300.5	+$103.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$283.09	—	-$283.09
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Upavg 38.9¢	$210.27	$540.28	+$330.01	53% 2028-1826 (3854)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 55.4¢	$219.43	$248.17	+$28.74	55% 24070-19444 (43514)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.4¢	$137.38	$248.17	+$110.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$82.05	—	-$82.05
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 9.7¢	$61.38	—	-$61.38	66% 112373-59102 (171475)
Atomforge	Upavg 79.6¢	$186.68	$234.38	+$47.7	65% 4179-2286 (6465)
LI Little-bigCTR	Downavg 66¢	$154.54	—	-$154.54	35% 18993-35997 (54990)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 60.6¢	$119.97	—	-$119.97	56% 8178-6319 (14497)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 11.8¢	$27.97	—	-$27.97	52% 90943-85477 (176420)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 69.8¢	$85.45	$85.48	+$0.03	67% 99860-48251 (148111)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.8¢	$26.29	$85.48	+$59.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.8¢	$59.15	—	-$59.15
BE berlinskies	Upavg 42.9¢	$54.73	$127.56	+$72.83	58% 5859-4296 (10155)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 53¢	$1.0K	$74.77	-$36.31	54% 8224-6907 (15131)

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$6,847.21

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$71.71

Record

56%

3673-2843 (6516)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,323.27

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

57%

71395-54409 (125804)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,497.08

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$411.7

Record

50%

5477-5524 (11001)

Both legs:

Up$712.6365.7¢+$372.75

Down$784.4563.6¢-$784.45

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,049.13

Value

$891.49

PnL

-$157.64

Record

55%

15710-13078 (28788)

Both legs:

Up$445.3650¢+$446.13

Down$603.7745.5¢-$603.77

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$769.47

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$269.86

Record

55%

7664-6267 (13931)

Both legs:

Up$526.4650.8¢+$510.34

Down$240.4742.1¢-$240.47

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$888.41

Value

$677.17

PnL

-$211.24

Record

60%

12450-8258 (20708)

Both legs:

Up$365.7554¢+$311.42

Down$522.6652.3¢-$522.66

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$613.02

Value

—

PnL

-$613.02

Record

58%

38241-27378 (65619)

hoodquant

Invested

$969.76

Value

$980

PnL

+$10.24

Record

93%

24047-1801 (25848)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$572.89

Value

$413.88

PnL

-$159.01

Record

56%

13958-11077 (25035)

Both legs:

Down$372.6341.4¢-$372.63

Up$200.2748.4¢+$213.61

OhioRiskManagementCTR

Down

Invested

$338.54

Value

—

PnL

-$338.54

Record

49%

78295-81799 (160094)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$326.83

Value

$448.85

PnL

+$122.02

Record

55%

8834-7294 (16128)

Both legs:

Up$121.4527.1¢+$327.4

Down$205.3837¢-$205.38

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$455.76

Value

$429.29

PnL

-$26.46

Record

57%

12676-9740 (22416)

Both legs:

Up$246.7457.5¢+$182.55

Down$209.0245.9¢-$209.02

pspspsps5CTR

Down

Invested

$335.05

Value

—

PnL

-$335.05

Record

46%

38451-45413 (83864)

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR

Down

Invested

$344.9

Value

—

PnL

-$338.4

Record

63%

1777-1035 (2812)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$480.3

Value

$300.5

PnL

-$179.8

Record

66%

99403-51545 (150948)

Both legs:

Up$197.2165.6¢+$103.29

Down$283.0955.5¢-$283.09

0xdc27...afdd9a

Invested

$210.27

Value

$540.28

PnL

+$330.01

Record

53%

2028-1826 (3854)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$219.43

Value

$248.17

PnL

+$28.74

Record

55%

24070-19444 (43514)

Both legs:

Up$137.3855.4¢+$110.79

Down$82.0552¢-$82.05

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$61.38

Value

—

PnL

-$61.38

Record

66%

112373-59102 (171475)

Atomforge

Invested

$186.68

Value

$234.38

PnL

+$47.7

Record

65%

4179-2286 (6465)

Little-bigCTR

Down

Invested

$154.54

Value

—

PnL

-$154.54

Record

35%

18993-35997 (54990)

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$119.97

Value

—

PnL

-$119.97

Record

56%

8178-6319 (14497)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$27.97

Value

—

PnL

-$27.97

Record

52%

90943-85477 (176420)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$85.45

Value

$85.48

PnL

+$0.03

Record

67%

99860-48251 (148111)

Both legs:

Up$26.2930.8¢+$59.18

Down$59.1569.8¢-$59.15

berlinskies

Invested

$54.73

Value

$127.56

PnL

+$72.83

Record

58%

5859-4296 (10155)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$1,034.14

Value

$74.77

PnL

-$36.31

Record

54%

8224-6907 (15131)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 21 top traders (62%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x06a93006...d069e1

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793486400

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$157.64

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$269.86

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$211.24

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$613.02

hoodquant

Up — $980

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $0