Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 23% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
31
Up 33%
$1.2K
-$140.63
Smart Money Signal
7 of 31 top traders (23%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 57.2¢ | $1.0K | $414.18 | +$10.2 | 50% 5488-5538 (11026) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Downavg 66.8¢ | $247.56 | $235.14 | +$222.72 | 54% 8234-6922 (15156) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 86.5¢ | $169.64 | $155.96 | -$13.68 | 55% 7679-6277 (13956) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 67¢ | $128.68 | $131.1 | +$2.42 | 60% 12463-8270 (20733) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 47.3¢ | $221.95 | — | -$221.95 | 55% 8849-7304 (16153) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 46.5¢ | $67.15 | $95 | +$27.85 | 58% 51244-37362 (88606) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $63.07 | $62.26 | -$0.81 | 63% 52258-31335 (83593) |
TE TelawinCTR | Upavg 59.4¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 50% 350-345 (695) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $24.02 | $20 | -$4.02 | 55% 24090-19445 (43535) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $12.55 | $20.92 | +$8.37 | 55% 18159-14741 (32900) |
PA Parad0X<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $9 | $16.07 | +$7.07 | 56% 2253-1755 (4008) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 44.3¢ | $3.29 | $7.42 | +$4.13 | 52% 90979-85505 (176484) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR<$100 | Upavg 52.8¢ | $54 | — | -$54 | 53% 2028-1828 (3856) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $12.2 | — | -$12.2 | 57% 12732-9446 (22178) |
FL FluffyMD2026CTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $25 | — | -$25 | — 2-7 (9) |
0X 0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825 | Downavg 50¢ | $434.32 | $0.12 | +$408.26 | 47% 93-105 (198) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100 | Downavg 49.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 55% 15723-13089 (28812) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 57.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 13969-11089 (25058) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3676-2845 (6521) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 21.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 66% 99414-51548 (150962) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 45.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 12686-9747 (22433) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 52.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 8198-6333 (14531) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 44.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 78322-81818 (160140) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | — | — | +$0 | 65% 126019-67412 (193431) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 40.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 71448-54444 (125892) |
Invested
$1,004.34
Value
$414.18
PnL
+$10.2
Record
50%
5488-5538 (11026)
Invested
$247.56
Value
$235.14
PnL
+$222.72
Record
54%
8234-6922 (15156)
Invested
$169.64
Value
$155.96
PnL
-$13.68
Record
55%
7679-6277 (13956)
Invested
$128.68
Value
$131.1
PnL
+$2.42
Record
60%
12463-8270 (20733)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$221.95
Value
—
PnL
-$221.95
Record
55%
8849-7304 (16153)
Invested
$67.15
Value
$95
PnL
+$27.85
Record
58%
51244-37362 (88606)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$63.07
Value
$62.26
PnL
-$0.81
Record
63%
52258-31335 (83593)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
50%
350-345 (695)
Invested
$24.02
Value
$20
PnL
-$4.02
Record
55%
24090-19445 (43535)
Invested
$12.55
Value
$20.92
PnL
+$8.37
Record
55%
18159-14741 (32900)
Invested
$9
Value
$16.07
PnL
+$7.07
Record
56%
2253-1755 (4008)
Invested
$3.29
Value
$7.42
PnL
+$4.13
Record
52%
90979-85505 (176484)
Invested
$54
Value
—
PnL
-$54
Record
53%
2028-1828 (3856)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$12.2
Value
—
PnL
-$12.2
Record
57%
12732-9446 (22178)
Invested
$25
Value
—
PnL
-$25
Record
—
2-7 (9)
Invested
$434.32
Value
$0.12
PnL
+$408.26
Record
47%
93-105 (198)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
15723-13089 (28812)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
13969-11089 (25058)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3676-2845 (6521)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
66%
99414-51548 (150962)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
12686-9747 (22433)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
8198-6333 (14531)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
78322-81818 (160140)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
126019-67412 (193431)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
71448-54444 (125892)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm0
Down — $414.18
sfkjbsr457
Down — $235.14
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $155.96
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $131.1
machinelearned
CTRUp — $0
PBot-6
Down — $95
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $62.26
Telawin
CTRUp — $0
sir-upalot
Down — $20
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $20.92