Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 78%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

$714.48

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 24 top traders (75%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares4,772

Combined PnL+$910.42

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares686

Combined PnL-$195.94

Down — 75%Up — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 75.1¢	$2.7K	$3.2K	+$572.65	50% 5470-5516 (10986)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.1¢	$2.4K	$3.2K	+$809.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 7.6¢	$236.7	—	-$236.7
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.6¢	$839.48	$860	+$20.52	93% 24031-1800 (25831)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 57.9¢	$747.17	$909.66	+$162.49	55% 15701-13072 (28773)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.9¢	$526.96	$909.66	+$382.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.9¢	$220.21	—	-$220.21
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$568.17	$573.91	+$5.74	74% 102858-36493 (139351)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 60.2¢	$409.77	$680.61	+$270.84	57% 71362-54385 (125747)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 77.8¢	$512.23	$573.6	+$61.38	66% 99391-51542 (150933)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 71.6¢	$425.61	$494.61	+$69	55% 7655-6261 (13916)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.6¢	$354.21	$494.61	+$140.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.4¢	$71.4	—	-$71.4
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 78.8¢	$344.23	$310.9	-$33.33	55% 8826-7287 (16113)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.8¢	$245.06	$310.9	+$65.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 14.4¢	$99.17	—	-$99.17
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 83.5¢	$455.29	$425.38	-$29.92	54% 8217-6898 (15115)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$382.25	$468.15	+$85.89	56% 13954-11066 (25020)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$259.94	$468.15	+$208.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.3¢	$122.31	—	-$122.31
FairValueMachine	Downavg 64.7¢	$271.4	$342.52	+$71.11	57% 12667-9734 (22401)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 70.8¢	$269.87	$224.58	-$42.29	60% 12443-8250 (20693)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.8¢	$159.01	$224.58	+$65.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.1¢	$109.11	—	-$107.86
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR<$100	Upavg 10.4¢	$43.85	—	-$43.85	53% 2028-1826 (3854)
ohioism	Downavg 68¢	$119.62	$150	+$30.38	64% 40407-23120 (63527)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 38.4¢	$90.97	$237	+$146.03	56% 8168-6307 (14475)
pspspsps5	Downavg 64.5¢	$199.79	$309.66	+$109.87	46% 38429-45392 (83821)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 52¢	$116.45	$224.13	+$107.68	49% 78260-81715 (159975)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 60.8¢	$81.79	—	-$81.79	59% 6957-4888 (11845)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 89.6¢	$72.27	$80.66	+$8.39	61% 95474-60238 (155712)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 91.6¢	$72.27	$78.93	+$6.66	66% 126575-65169 (191744)
Atomforge	Downavg 54.6¢	$59.24	$108.59	+$49.35	65% 4171-2279 (6450)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 63.7¢	$71.27	—	-$53.94	64% 24226-13368 (37594)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 40¢	$20.5	$51.25	+$30.75	35% 18983-35988 (54971)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 69¢	$17.75	$25.72	+$7.97	62% 44041-27052 (71093)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 69¢	$17.5	$25.36	+$7.86	58% 60841-44423 (105264)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,676.37

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$572.65

Record

50%

5470-5516 (10986)

Both legs:

Down$2,439.6675.1¢+$809.36

Up$236.77.6¢-$236.7

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$839.48

Value

$860

PnL

+$20.52

Record

93%

24031-1800 (25831)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$747.17

Value

$909.66

PnL

+$162.49

Record

55%

15701-13072 (28773)

Both legs:

Down$526.9657.9¢+$382.7

Up$220.2137.9¢-$220.21

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$568.17

Value

$573.91

PnL

+$5.74

Record

74%

102858-36493 (139351)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$409.77

Value

$680.61

PnL

+$270.84

Record

57%

71362-54385 (125747)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$512.23

Value

$573.6

PnL

+$61.38

Record

66%

99391-51542 (150933)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$425.61

Value

$494.61

PnL

+$69

Record

55%

7655-6261 (13916)

Both legs:

Down$354.2171.6¢+$140.4

Up$71.422.4¢-$71.4

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$344.23

Value

$310.9

PnL

-$33.33

Record

55%

8826-7287 (16113)

Both legs:

Down$245.0678.8¢+$65.85

Up$99.1714.4¢-$99.17

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$455.29

Value

$425.38

PnL

-$29.92

Record

54%

8217-6898 (15115)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$382.25

Value

$468.15

PnL

+$85.89

Record

56%

13954-11066 (25020)

Both legs:

Down$259.9455.5¢+$208.2

Up$122.3140.3¢-$122.31

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$271.4

Value

$342.52

PnL

+$71.11

Record

57%

12667-9734 (22401)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$269.87

Value

$224.58

PnL

-$42.29

Record

60%

12443-8250 (20693)

Both legs:

Down$159.0170.8¢+$65.57

Up$109.1135.1¢-$107.86

0xdc27...afdd9aCTR<$100

Invested

$43.85

Value

—

PnL

-$43.85

Record

53%

2028-1826 (3854)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$119.62

Value

$150

PnL

+$30.38

Record

64%

40407-23120 (63527)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$90.97

Value

$237

PnL

+$146.03

Record

56%

8168-6307 (14475)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$199.79

Value

$309.66

PnL

+$109.87

Record

46%

38429-45392 (83821)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$116.45

Value

$224.13

PnL

+$107.68

Record

49%

78260-81715 (159975)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$81.79

Value

—

PnL

-$81.79

Record

59%

6957-4888 (11845)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$72.27

Value

$80.66

PnL

+$8.39

Record

61%

95474-60238 (155712)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$72.27

Value

$78.93

PnL

+$6.66

Record

66%

126575-65169 (191744)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$59.24

Value

$108.59

PnL

+$49.35

Record

65%

4171-2279 (6450)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$71.27

Value

—

PnL

-$53.94

Record

64%

24226-13368 (37594)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$20.5

Value

$51.25

PnL

+$30.75

Record

35%

18983-35988 (54971)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$17.75

Value

$25.72

PnL

+$7.97

Record

62%

44041-27052 (71093)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$17.5

Value

$25.36

PnL

+$7.86

Record

58%

60841-44423 (105264)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 24 top traders (75%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xb8e1ddd9...cc62b0

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793481900

Traders in this Market

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$572.65

hoodquant

Down — $860

+$20.52

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$162.49

BoneOhio

Down — $573.91

+$5.74

uninformedfloww

Down — $680.61

+$270.84

Bonereaper

Down — $573.6

+$61.38

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Down — $425.38

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded