Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
31
Down 63%
1 arb excluded
$8.8K
$243.79
Smart Money Signal
20 of 31 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 44¢ | $1.6K | $3.7K | +$2.1K | 57% 71362-54385 (125747) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$17.59 | 74% 102858-36493 (139351) |
 QSQLCTR | Upavg 33.7¢ | $1.6K | — | $-1.6K | — 12-5 (17) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 50.6¢ | $856.81 | $953.84 | +$97.03 | 55% 15701-13072 (28773) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 47.1¢ | $450.49 | $518.04 | +$67.55 | 50% 5470-5516 (10986) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 53.3¢ | $497.03 | — | -$497.03 | 56% 13954-11066 (25020) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 60.7¢ | $289.57 | $428.08 | +$138.52 | 57% 12667-9734 (22401) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 61.4¢ | $331.74 | $414.8 | +$84.74 | 55% 7655-6261 (13916) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 34¢ | $118.75 | $277.58 | +$158.83 | 66% 99391-51542 (150933) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 47.7¢ | $194.25 | — | -$194.25 | 55% 8826-7287 (16113) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 26.4¢ | $43.78 | $122.84 | +$79.06 | 51% 17192-16693 (33885) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 43¢ | $52.03 | $121 | +$68.97 | 56% 8168-6307 (14475) |
 G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100 | Downavg 41.1¢ | $44.3 | $76.64 | +$32.34 | 62% 44041-27052 (71093) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.1¢ | $31.5 | $76.64 | +$45.14 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31¢ | $12.8 | — | -$12.8 | |
LI Little-big | Downavg 43.4¢ | $48.46 | $111.61 | +$63.15 | 35% 18983-35988 (54971) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 97.8¢ | $51.39 | $52.53 | +$1.14 | 66% 126575-65169 (191744) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Upavg 60.4¢ | $76.2 | — | -$76.2 | 55% 24060-19438 (43498) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 71.5¢ | $52.1 | — | -$48.91 | 64% 24226-13368 (37594) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $31.04 | $32 | +$0.96 | 93% 24031-1800 (25831) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $34.88 | $45.14 | +$10.26 | 65% 125846-67348 (193194) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 70.3¢ | $12.65 | $18 | +$5.35 | 61% 95474-60238 (155712) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 39.8¢ | $13.57 | $24.82 | +$11.25 | 65% 4171-2279 (6450) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $15.06 | — | -$15.06 | 58% 51198-37322 (88520) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $20.88 | $29 | +$8.12 | 58% 60841-44423 (105264) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $11.75 | $25.54 | +$13.79 | 56% 58403-45070 (103473) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $11.61 | — | -$11.61 | 59% 6957-4888 (11845) |
Invested
$1,644.13
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
57%
71362-54385 (125747)
BoneOhioInvested
$1,741.32
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$17.59
Record
74%
102858-36493 (139351)
QSQLCTRInvested
$1,600
Value
—
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
—
12-5 (17)
Invested
$856.81
Value
$953.84
PnL
+$97.03
Record
55%
15701-13072 (28773)
Invested
$450.49
Value
$518.04
PnL
+$67.55
Record
50%
5470-5516 (10986)
Invested
$497.03
Value
—
PnL
-$497.03
Record
56%
13954-11066 (25020)
FairValueMachineInvested
$289.57
Value
$428.08
PnL
+$138.52
Record
57%
12667-9734 (22401)
Invested
$331.74
Value
$414.8
PnL
+$84.74
Record
55%
7655-6261 (13916)
Invested
$118.75
Value
$277.58
PnL
+$158.83
Record
66%
99391-51542 (150933)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$194.25
Value
—
PnL
-$194.25
Record
55%
8826-7287 (16113)
Invested
$43.78
Value
$122.84
PnL
+$79.06
Record
51%
17192-16693 (33885)
Invested
$52.03
Value
$121
PnL
+$68.97
Record
56%
8168-6307 (14475)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100Invested
$44.3
Value
$76.64
PnL
+$32.34
Record
62%
44041-27052 (71093)
Both legs:
Invested
$48.46
Value
$111.61
PnL
+$63.15
Record
35%
18983-35988 (54971)
Invested
$51.39
Value
$52.53
PnL
+$1.14
Record
66%
126575-65169 (191744)
Invested
$76.2
Value
—
PnL
-$76.2
Record
55%
24060-19438 (43498)
Invested
$52.1
Value
—
PnL
-$48.91
Record
64%
24226-13368 (37594)
Invested
$31.04
Value
$32
PnL
+$0.96
Record
93%
24031-1800 (25831)
Invested
$34.88
Value
$45.14
PnL
+$10.26
Record
65%
125846-67348 (193194)
Invested
$12.65
Value
$18
PnL
+$5.35
Record
61%
95474-60238 (155712)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$13.57
Value
$24.82
PnL
+$11.25
Record
65%
4171-2279 (6450)
Invested
$15.06
Value
—
PnL
-$15.06
Record
58%
51198-37322 (88520)
Invested
$20.88
Value
$29
PnL
+$8.12
Record
58%
60841-44423 (105264)
Invested
$11.75
Value
$25.54
PnL
+$13.79
Record
56%
58403-45070 (103473)
Invested
$11.61
Value
—
PnL
-$11.61
Record
59%
6957-4888 (11845)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
Down — $3.7K
BoneOhio
Down — $1.8K
QSQL
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $953.84
ply-pm0
Down — $518.04
GoodFallen
CTRUp — $0
FairValueMachine
Down — $428.08
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $414.8
Bonereaper
Down — $277.58
machinelearned
CTRUp — $0