Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 69%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 30 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares5,622

Combined PnL+$89.17

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,735

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	74% 102858-36493 (139351)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$545.74	$551.25	+$5.51	93% 24031-1800 (25831)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 28.6¢	$349.39	—	-$349.39	50% 5470-5516 (10986)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 70.7¢	$207.36	$273.45	+$66.09	66% 99391-51542 (150933)
pspspsps5	Downavg 88.9¢	$253.6	$203.5	-$50.1	46% 38429-45392 (83821)
machinelearned	Downavg 93.8¢	$233.91	$189.15	-$44.76	55% 8826-7287 (16113)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 48.8¢	$171.98	$198	+$26.02	56% 8168-6307 (14475)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.8¢	$96.68	$198	+$101.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$75.3	—	-$75.3
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 72.6¢	$136.26	$168.26	+$31.99	55% 7655-6261 (13916)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 50.3¢	$223.6	—	-$223.6	55% 15701-13072 (28773)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 42.8¢	$225.33	—	-$225.33	56% 13954-11066 (25020)
ohioism	Downavg 90.1¢	$135.08	$150	+$14.92	64% 40407-23120 (63527)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 85.4¢	$142.12	$139.76	-$2.36	49% 78260-81715 (159975)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 92¢	$142.06	$132	-$10.07	60% 12443-8250 (20693)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 62.9¢	$103.72	—	-$103.72	57% 12667-9734 (22401)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 51.7¢	$59.24	$43.43	-$15.81	59% 6957-4888 (11845)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.7¢	$37.31	—	-$37.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$21.93	$43.43	+$21.5
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 91¢	$47.69	$50.78	+$3.09	66% 126575-65169 (191744)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 83.2¢	$42.52	$51.14	+$8.61	52% 90910-85451 (176361)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 83.5¢	$33.4	$40	+$6.6	55% 24060-19438 (43498)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 93¢	$37.2	$40	+$2.8	62% 44041-27052 (71093)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 79¢	$31.59	$39.99	+$8.4	57% 71362-54385 (125747)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$26.5	—	-$26.5	35% 18983-35988 (54971)
GA gansinimen<$100	Downavg 91.9¢	$27.52	$27.74	+$0.21	51% 17192-16693 (33885)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 88.3¢	$50.58	$24.93	+$4.42	61% 95474-60238 (155712)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$17.01	$14.02	+$6.8	65% 125846-67348 (193194)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 92¢	$9.8	$10.65	+$0.85	65% 4171-2279 (6450)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

74%

102858-36493 (139351)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$545.74

Value

$551.25

PnL

+$5.51

Record

93%

24031-1800 (25831)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$349.39

Value

—

PnL

-$349.39

Record

50%

5470-5516 (10986)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$207.36

Value

$273.45

PnL

+$66.09

Record

66%

99391-51542 (150933)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$253.6

Value

$203.5

PnL

-$50.1

Record

46%

38429-45392 (83821)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$233.91

Value

$189.15

PnL

-$44.76

Record

55%

8826-7287 (16113)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$171.98

Value

$198

PnL

+$26.02

Record

56%

8168-6307 (14475)

Both legs:

Down$96.6848.8¢+$101.32

Up$75.350.5¢-$75.3

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$136.26

Value

$168.26

PnL

+$31.99

Record

55%

7655-6261 (13916)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$223.6

Value

—

PnL

-$223.6

Record

55%

15701-13072 (28773)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$225.33

Value

—

PnL

-$225.33

Record

56%

13954-11066 (25020)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$135.08

Value

$150

PnL

+$14.92

Record

64%

40407-23120 (63527)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$142.12

Value

$139.76

PnL

-$2.36

Record

49%

78260-81715 (159975)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$142.06

Value

$132

PnL

-$10.07

Record

60%

12443-8250 (20693)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$103.72

Value

—

PnL

-$103.72

Record

57%

12667-9734 (22401)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$59.24

Value

$43.43

PnL

-$15.81

Record

59%

6957-4888 (11845)

Both legs:

Up$37.3151.7¢-$37.31

Down$21.9350.5¢+$21.5

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$47.69

Value

$50.78

PnL

+$3.09

Record

66%

126575-65169 (191744)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$42.52

Value

$51.14

PnL

+$8.61

Record

52%

90910-85451 (176361)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$33.4

Value

$40

PnL

+$6.6

Record

55%

24060-19438 (43498)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$37.2

Value

$40

PnL

+$2.8

Record

62%

44041-27052 (71093)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$31.59

Value

$39.99

PnL

+$8.4

Record

57%

71362-54385 (125747)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$26.5

Value

—

PnL

-$26.5

Record

35%

18983-35988 (54971)

gansinimen<$100

Down

Invested

$27.52

Value

$27.74

PnL

+$0.21

Record

51%

17192-16693 (33885)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$50.58

Value

$24.93

PnL

+$4.42

Record

61%

95474-60238 (155712)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$17.01

Value

$14.02

PnL

+$6.8

Record

65%

125846-67348 (193194)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$9.8

Value

$10.65

PnL

+$0.85

Record

65%

4171-2279 (6450)

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 30 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x9be8b179...888e36

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793480400

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Down — $3.5K

+$35

hoodquant

Down — $551.25

+$5.51

ply-pm0

CTR

Up — $0

-$349.39

Bonereaper

Down — $273.45

+$66.09

pspspsps5

Down — $203.5

-$50.1

machinelearned

Down — $189.15

-$44.76

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$26.02

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $168.26

+$31.99

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $0

GoodFallen

Up — $0