Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 55%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 32 top traders (56%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,202

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,739

Combined PnL-$458.77

Down — 56%Up — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 59.4¢	$862.56	$1.5K	+$589.23	58% 38241-27378 (65619)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 47.5¢	$270.44	$362.56	+$92.12	50% 5477-5524 (11001)
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.5¢	$98.08	—	-$98.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.5¢	$172.36	$362.56	+$190.2
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 56.1¢	$311.85	$335.72	+$23.87	55% 15710-13078 (28788)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.1¢	$199.27	—	-$199.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.5¢	$112.58	$335.72	+$223.14
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR	Upavg 33.4¢	$171.94	—	-$170.32	63% 1777-1035 (2812)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 54.6¢	$306.17	$561	+$254.83	56% 8178-6319 (14497)
pspspsps5	Downavg 75¢	$364.31	$475.34	+$111.03	46% 38451-45413 (83864)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 53.6¢	$263.48	$436.09	+$172.61	66% 99403-51545 (150948)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 2.7¢	$11.53	—	-$11.53	66% 112373-59102 (171475)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 61.1¢	$199.27	$222.44	+$23.17	56% 14734-11594 (26328)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.1¢	$118.49	—	-$118.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.3¢	$80.75	$222.44	+$141.67
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 75.4¢	$293.04	$304.01	+$13.53	55% 7664-6267 (13931)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.4¢	$229.13	$304.01	+$73.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.1¢	$60.14	—	-$60.14
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	64% 58732-33316 (92048)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$100	$200	+$100
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$100	—	-$100
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$3.92	—	-$3.92	63% 52248-31272 (83520)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 27.4¢	$110.58	$403.59	+$293.01	57% 71395-54409 (125804)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 52.2¢	$195.07	$101.64	-$93.42	60% 12450-8258 (20708)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.2¢	$116.38	—	-$116.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.4¢	$78.69	$101.64	+$22.95
LI Little-big	Downavg 52.3¢	$130.85	$250	+$119.15	35% 18993-35997 (54990)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 71¢	$125.93	$121.17	-$4.76	55% 8834-7294 (16128)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71¢	$86.05	$121.17	+$35.12
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.9¢	$39.88	—	-$39.88
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 66.5¢	$132.52	$199.27	+$66.75	49% 78295-81799 (160094)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Downavg 59.8¢	$186.21	$125.47	+$64.73	54% 8224-6907 (15131)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.8¢	$75.08	$125.47	+$50.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.5¢	$32.71	—	+$14.35
BoneOhioCTR	Upavg 84¢	$126	—	-$126	74% 102879-36496 (139375)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 67.7¢	$94.51	$91.93	-$2.59	66% 126616-65192 (191808)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Downavg 52¢	$59.4	$90	+$30.6	56% 13958-11077 (25035)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$42.21	—	-$42.21	57% 12676-9740 (22416)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 54¢	$31.8	—	-$31.8	57% 12730-9443 (22173)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 99¢	$59.4	$60	+$0.6	65% 125977-67395 (193372)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$25	—	-$25	58% 51216-37341 (88557)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$862.56

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$589.23

Record

58%

38241-27378 (65619)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$270.44

Value

$362.56

PnL

+$92.12

Record

50%

5477-5524 (11001)

Both legs:

Up$98.0815.5¢-$98.08

Down$172.3647.5¢+$190.2

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$311.85

Value

$335.72

PnL

+$23.87

Record

55%

15710-13078 (28788)

Both legs:

Up$199.2756.1¢-$199.27

Down$112.5833.5¢+$223.14

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR

Invested

$171.94

Value

—

PnL

-$170.32

Record

63%

1777-1035 (2812)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$306.17

Value

$561

PnL

+$254.83

Record

56%

8178-6319 (14497)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$364.31

Value

$475.34

PnL

+$111.03

Record

46%

38451-45413 (83864)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$263.48

Value

$436.09

PnL

+$172.61

Record

66%

99403-51545 (150948)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$11.53

Value

—

PnL

-$11.53

Record

66%

112373-59102 (171475)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$199.27

Value

$222.44

PnL

+$23.17

Record

56%

14734-11594 (26328)

Both legs:

Up$118.4961.1¢-$118.51

Down$80.7536.3¢+$141.67

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$293.04

Value

$304.01

PnL

+$13.53

Record

55%

7664-6267 (13931)

Both legs:

Down$229.1375.4¢+$73.66

Up$60.1442.1¢-$60.14

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

58732-33316 (92048)

Both legs:

Down$10050¢+$100

Up$10050¢-$100

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$3.92

Value

—

PnL

-$3.92

Record

63%

52248-31272 (83520)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$110.58

Value

$403.59

PnL

+$293.01

Record

57%

71395-54409 (125804)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$195.07

Value

$101.64

PnL

-$93.42

Record

60%

12450-8258 (20708)

Both legs:

Up$116.3852.2¢-$116.38

Down$78.6977.4¢+$22.95

Little-big

Down

Invested

$130.85

Value

$250

PnL

+$119.15

Record

35%

18993-35997 (54990)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$125.93

Value

$121.17

PnL

-$4.76

Record

55%

8834-7294 (16128)

Both legs:

Invested

$132.52

Value

$199.27

PnL

+$66.75

Record

49%

78295-81799 (160094)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$186.21

Value

$125.47

PnL

+$64.73

Record

54%

8224-6907 (15131)

Both legs:

Down$75.0859.8¢+$50.39

Up$32.7162.5¢+$14.35

BoneOhioCTR

Invested

$126

Value

—

PnL

-$126

Record

74%

102879-36496 (139375)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$94.51

Value

$91.93

PnL

-$2.59

Record

66%

126616-65192 (191808)

GoodFallen<$100

Down

Invested

$59.4

Value

$90

PnL

+$30.6

Record

56%

13958-11077 (25035)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Invested

$42.21

Value

—

PnL

-$42.21

Record

57%

12676-9740 (22416)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$31.8

Value

—

PnL

-$31.8

Record

57%

12730-9443 (22173)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$59.4

Value

$60

PnL

+$0.6

Record

65%

125977-67395 (193372)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$25

Value

—

PnL

-$25

Record

58%

51216-37341 (88557)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 32 top traders (56%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe6911671...28d899

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793479200

Traders in this Market

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $1.5K

+$589.23

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$92.12

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$23.87

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700

CTR

Up — $0

-$170.32

wzbbb

Down — $561

+$254.83

pspspsps5

Down — $475.34

+$111.03

Bonereaper

Down — $436.09

antsaslyku

Up — $0

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$13.53

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