Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

21 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Down (81%) · Down at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 81%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$356.75

Smart Money Entry

75.9¢ → 100¢

+32% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 26 top traders (81%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,518

Combined PnL+$447.96

Up5 traders

Total Value$604.81

Total Shares1,539

Combined PnL-$91.22

Down — 81%Up — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
machinelearned	Downavg 91.9¢	$493.35	$534.81	+$41.46	55% 8826-7287 (16113)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 53.1¢	$512.84	$488.17	-$24.67	58% 38225-27367 (65592)
pspspsps5	Downavg 95¢	$234.4	$242.97	+$8.57	46% 38429-45392 (83821)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 87.7¢	$203.1	$215.89	+$228.8	54% 8217-6898 (15115)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 63¢	$167.85	$214.7	+$46.85	55% 15701-13072 (28773)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 53.6¢	$85.62	$126.93	+$41.31	50% 5470-5516 (10986)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 63.6¢	$86.93	$122.45	+$35.52	66% 99391-51542 (150933)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 57.7¢	$79.01	$108.92	+$29.91	55% 7655-6261 (13916)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 97¢	$99.91	$96.31	-$3.6	49% 78260-81715 (159975)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 48.8¢	$85.75	$86.93	+$1.18	57% 71362-54385 (125747)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 80¢	$80	$79.5	-$0.5	57% 12667-9734 (22401)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 47¢	$72	$74.75	+$2.75	58% 51198-37322 (88520)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 54¢	$65.88	$61.61	-$4.27	56% 8168-6307 (14475)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 88.6¢	$53.14	$56.09	+$2.95	64% 24226-13368 (37594)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Upavg 26.3¢	$73.85	$50.69	-$23.16	60% 12443-8250 (20693)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Downavg 65¢	$38.99	$47.69	+$8.7	56% 13954-11066 (25020)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 89.3¢	$37.2	$38.96	+$1.76	61% 95474-60238 (155712)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 88.5¢	$36.76	$38.84	+$2.08	66% 126575-65169 (191744)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 85.6¢	$39.35	$36.54	-$2.81	55% 18125-14708 (32833)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 98.1¢	$33.36	$31.79	-$1.57	52% 90910-85451 (176361)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 47.1¢	$24.5	$25.77	+$1.27	35% 18983-35988 (54971)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 74.6¢	$18.74	$19.98	+$1.24	65% 125846-67348 (193194)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 50¢	$3.36	$5.34	+$1.98	65% 4171-2279 (6450)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$2.89	$4.34	+$1.44	63% 52240-31232 (83472)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.48	+$0.13	58% 60841-44423 (105264)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$493.35

Value

$534.81

PnL

+$41.46

Record

55%

8826-7287 (16113)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$512.84

Value

$488.17

PnL

-$24.67

Record

58%

38225-27367 (65592)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$234.4

Value

$242.97

PnL

+$8.57

Record

46%

38429-45392 (83821)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$203.1

Value

$215.89

PnL

+$228.8

Record

54%

8217-6898 (15115)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$167.85

Value

$214.7

PnL

+$46.85

Record

55%

15701-13072 (28773)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$85.62

Value

$126.93

PnL

+$41.31

Record

50%

5470-5516 (10986)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$86.93

Value

$122.45

PnL

+$35.52

Record

66%

99391-51542 (150933)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$79.01

Value

$108.92

PnL

+$29.91

Record

55%

7655-6261 (13916)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$99.91

Value

$96.31

PnL

-$3.6

Record

49%

78260-81715 (159975)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$85.75

Value

$86.93

PnL

+$1.18

Record

57%

71362-54385 (125747)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$80

Value

$79.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

57%

12667-9734 (22401)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$72

Value

$74.75

PnL

+$2.75

Record

58%

51198-37322 (88520)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$65.88

Value

$61.61

PnL

-$4.27

Record

56%

8168-6307 (14475)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$53.14

Value

$56.09

PnL

+$2.95

Record

64%

24226-13368 (37594)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100

Invested

$73.85

Value

$50.69

PnL

-$23.16

Record

60%

12443-8250 (20693)

GoodFallen<$100

Down

Invested

$38.99

Value

$47.69

PnL

+$8.7

Record

56%

13954-11066 (25020)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$37.2

Value

$38.96

PnL

+$1.76

Record

61%

95474-60238 (155712)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$36.76

Value

$38.84

PnL

+$2.08

Record

66%

126575-65169 (191744)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$39.35

Value

$36.54

PnL

-$2.81

Record

55%

18125-14708 (32833)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$33.36

Value

$31.79

PnL

-$1.57

Record

52%

90910-85451 (176361)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$24.5

Value

$25.77

PnL

+$1.27

Record

35%

18983-35988 (54971)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$18.74

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$1.24

Record

65%

125846-67348 (193194)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$3.36

Value

$5.34

PnL

+$1.98

Record

65%

4171-2279 (6450)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$2.89

Value

$4.34

PnL

+$1.44

Record

63%

52240-31232 (83472)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.13

Record

58%

60841-44423 (105264)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 26 top traders (81%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.