Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 82%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$209.24

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 23 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,696

Combined PnL+$737.93

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,348

Combined PnL-$528.69

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
machinelearned	Downavg 52¢	$405.07	$592.01	+$186.94	55% 8826-7287 (16113)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 61.2¢	$476.82	—	-$476.82	58% 38225-27367 (65592)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 58¢	$394.63	$390.66	-$3.96	50% 5470-5516 (10986)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 54.4¢	$260.59	$307.76	+$47.18	55% 15701-13072 (28773)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.4¢	$167.55	$307.76	+$140.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 35¢	$93.04	—	-$93.04
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 37.1¢	$199.46	$538.33	+$338.87	57% 71362-54385 (125747)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 63.1¢	$238.02	$220.94	-$17.08	54% 8217-6898 (15115)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 31.1¢	$114	$60	-$54	56% 13954-11066 (25020)
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.1¢	$77.7	—	-$77.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.5¢	$36.3	$60	+$23.7
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 79.3¢	$129.53	$114.26	-$15.26	55% 7655-6261 (13916)
LI Little-big	Downavg 39.6¢	$72.25	$150	+$77.75	35% 18983-35988 (54971)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 35¢	$58.8	$168	+$109.2	56% 8168-6307 (14475)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Downavg 81.7¢	$100	$91.54	-$8.46	66% 99391-51542 (150933)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$75.24	$82.98	+$7.74	60% 12443-8250 (20693)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 67¢	$112.5	$167.95	+$55.45	55% 18125-14708 (32833)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 59.2¢	$34.21	$54.76	+$20.55	46% 38429-45392 (83821)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Upavg 23.8¢	$38.24	—	-$38.24	57% 12667-9734 (22401)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 97¢	$42.74	$44.06	+$1.32	65% 125846-67348 (193194)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 86¢	$35.07	$28.86	-$6.21	58% 60841-44423 (105264)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 68¢	$38.82	$16.55	-$20.97	64% 24226-13368 (37594)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 2.6¢	$10.81	—	-$10.81	63% 52240-31232 (83472)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 85¢	$7.18	$8.45	+$1.27	66% 126575-65169 (191744)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 46¢	$7.44	$16.17	+$8.73	49% 78260-81715 (159975)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 89¢	$4.45	$5	+$0.55	56% 58403-45070 (103473)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$2.82	—	-$2.82	65% 4171-2279 (6450)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 70¢	$3.5	$5	+$1.5	50% 7913-7939 (15852)
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	56% 3666-2839 (6505)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$405.07

Value

$592.01

PnL

+$186.94

Record

55%

8826-7287 (16113)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$476.82

Value

—

PnL

-$476.82

Record

58%

38225-27367 (65592)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$394.63

Value

$390.66

PnL

-$3.96

Record

50%

5470-5516 (10986)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$260.59

Value

$307.76

PnL

+$47.18

Record

55%

15701-13072 (28773)

Both legs:

Down$167.5554.4¢+$140.21

Up$93.0435¢-$93.04

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$199.46

Value

$538.33

PnL

+$338.87

Record

57%

71362-54385 (125747)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$238.02

Value

$220.94

PnL

-$17.08

Record

54%

8217-6898 (15115)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$114

Value

$60

PnL

-$54

Record

56%

13954-11066 (25020)

Both legs:

Up$77.731.1¢-$77.7

Down$36.360.5¢+$23.7

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$129.53

Value

$114.26

PnL

-$15.26

Record

55%

7655-6261 (13916)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$72.25

Value

$150

PnL

+$77.75

Record

35%

18983-35988 (54971)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$58.8

Value

$168

PnL

+$109.2

Record

56%

8168-6307 (14475)

Bonereaper<$100

Down

Invested

$100

Value

$91.54

PnL

-$8.46

Record

66%

99391-51542 (150933)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$75.24

Value

$82.98

PnL

+$7.74

Record

60%

12443-8250 (20693)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$112.5

Value

$167.95

PnL

+$55.45

Record

55%

18125-14708 (32833)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$34.21

Value

$54.76

PnL

+$20.55

Record

46%

38429-45392 (83821)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Invested

$38.24

Value

—

PnL

-$38.24

Record

57%

12667-9734 (22401)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$42.74

Value

$44.06

PnL

+$1.32

Record

65%

125846-67348 (193194)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$35.07

Value

$28.86

PnL

-$6.21

Record

58%

60841-44423 (105264)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$38.82

Value

$16.55

PnL

-$20.97

Record

64%

24226-13368 (37594)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$10.81

Value

—

PnL

-$10.81

Record

63%

52240-31232 (83472)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$7.18

Value

$8.45

PnL

+$1.27

Record

66%

126575-65169 (191744)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$7.44

Value

$16.17

PnL

+$8.73

Record

49%

78260-81715 (159975)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$4.45

Value

PnL

+$0.55

Record

56%

58403-45070 (103473)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Invested

$2.82

Value

—

PnL

-$2.82

Record

65%

4171-2279 (6450)

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$3.5

Value

PnL

+$1.5

Record

50%

7913-7939 (15852)

arcsine-barristerCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3666-2839 (6505)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 23 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x32d8181a...faa820

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793477400

Traders in this Market

machinelearned

Down — $592.01

+$186.94

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$476.82

ply-pm0

Down — $390.66

-$3.96

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$47.18

uninformedfloww

Down — $538.33

+$338.87

sfkjbsr457

Down — $220.94

-$17.08

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$54

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $114.26

-$15.26

Little-big

Down — $150

+$77.75

wzbbb

Down — $168

+$109.2

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