Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET

Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 55%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$101.66

Smart Money Signal

13 of 23 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,830

Combined PnL+$450.66

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,576

Combined PnL-$349

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 57.8¢	$323.05	$451.21	+$128.16	55% 15701-13072 (28773)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 73.4¢	$350.82	$307.45	-$43.37	50% 5470-5516 (10986)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.4¢	$225.79	$307.45	+$81.66
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.8¢	$125.04	—	-$125.04
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 69.2¢	$436.59	$631.12	+$194.53	58% 38225-27367 (65592)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 73.8¢	$335.77	$326.02	-$9.75	54% 8217-6898 (15115)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.8¢	$240.55	$326.02	+$85.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.7¢	$95.21	—	-$95.21
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$258.52	$281.97	+$23.45	55% 8826-7287 (16113)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.6¢	$190.62	$281.97	+$91.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.9¢	$67.9	—	-$67.9
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 59.1¢	$169.35	$250	+$80.65	56% 13954-11066 (25020)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 59.6¢	$131.09	$115.04	-$16.05	55% 7655-6261 (13916)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.6¢	$68.61	$115.04	+$46.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.5¢	$62.48	—	-$62.48
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 7.1¢	$35.85	—	-$35.85	59% 62520-43633 (106153)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 38¢	$99.84	—	-$99.84	46% 38429-45392 (83821)
PB PBot-6	Upavg 50.2¢	$105.69	$118	+$12.31	58% 51198-37322 (88520)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 71.8¢	$109.69	$126.82	+$20.09	60% 12443-8250 (20693)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 24.7¢	$100.97	—	-$100.97	57% 71362-54385 (125747)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Upavg 67¢	$69.29	$79.1	+$9.81	66% 99391-51542 (150933)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 36¢	$51.31	—	-$51.31	49% 78260-81715 (159975)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 69.2¢	$62.1	$52.04	-$10.06	56% 58403-45070 (103473)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 89¢	$38.45	$25	-$13.45	64% 40407-23120 (63527)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 35.2¢	$36.98	—	-$13.7	64% 24226-13368 (37594)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Downavg 29¢	$16.28	—	-$16.28	57% 12667-9734 (22401)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 58.2¢	$19.4	$33.33	+$13.93	55% 24060-19438 (43498)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 93¢	$23.5	$25.27	+$1.77	65% 125846-67348 (193194)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 48.2¢	$18.9	—	-$18.9	35% 18983-35988 (54971)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 32¢	$8	—	-$8	58% 60841-44423 (105264)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 67¢	$12.4	$18.51	+$6.11	55% 18125-14708 (32833)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 66¢	$13.2	$20	+$6.8	62% 44041-27052 (71093)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$4.09	—	-$4.09	63% 52240-31232 (83472)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$323.05

Value

$451.21

PnL

+$128.16

Record

55%

15701-13072 (28773)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$350.82

Value

$307.45

PnL

-$43.37

Record

50%

5470-5516 (10986)

Both legs:

Up$225.7973.4¢+$81.66

Down$125.0434.8¢-$125.04

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$436.59

Value

$631.12

PnL

+$194.53

Record

58%

38225-27367 (65592)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$335.77

Value

$326.02

PnL

-$9.75

Record

54%

8217-6898 (15115)

Both legs:

Up$240.5573.8¢+$85.46

Down$95.2132.7¢-$95.21

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$258.52

Value

$281.97

PnL

+$23.45

Record

55%

8826-7287 (16113)

Both legs:

Up$190.6267.6¢+$91.35

Down$67.929.9¢-$67.9

GoodFallen

Invested

$169.35

Value

$250

PnL

+$80.65

Record

56%

13954-11066 (25020)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$131.09

Value

$115.04

PnL

-$16.05

Record

55%

7655-6261 (13916)

Both legs:

Up$68.6159.6¢+$46.43

Down$62.4835.5¢-$62.48

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.85

Value

—

PnL

-$35.85

Record

59%

62520-43633 (106153)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$99.84

Value

—

PnL

-$99.84

Record

46%

38429-45392 (83821)

PBot-6

Invested

$105.69

Value

$118

PnL

+$12.31

Record

58%

51198-37322 (88520)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$109.69

Value

$126.82

PnL

+$20.09

Record

60%

12443-8250 (20693)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$100.97

Value

—

PnL

-$100.97

Record

57%

71362-54385 (125747)

Bonereaper<$100

Invested

$69.29

Value

$79.1

PnL

+$9.81

Record

66%

99391-51542 (150933)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$51.31

Value

—

PnL

-$51.31

Record

49%

78260-81715 (159975)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$62.1

Value

$52.04

PnL

-$10.06

Record

56%

58403-45070 (103473)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$38.45

Value

$25

PnL

-$13.45

Record

64%

40407-23120 (63527)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$36.98

Value

—

PnL

-$13.7

Record

64%

24226-13368 (37594)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.28

Value

—

PnL

-$16.28

Record

57%

12667-9734 (22401)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$19.4

Value

$33.33

PnL

+$13.93

Record

55%

24060-19438 (43498)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$23.5

Value

$25.27

PnL

+$1.77

Record

65%

125846-67348 (193194)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.9

Value

—

PnL

-$18.9

Record

35%

18983-35988 (54971)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$8

Record

58%

60841-44423 (105264)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$12.4

Value

$18.51

PnL

+$6.11

Record

55%

18125-14708 (32833)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

$20

PnL

+$6.8

Record

62%

44041-27052 (71093)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.09

Value

—

PnL

-$4.09

Record

63%

52240-31232 (83472)

Smart Money Signal

13 of 23 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1e01935a...426009

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793477100

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $451.21

+$128.16

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$43.37

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $631.12

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Up — $250

+$80.65

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

0x50f7

Down — $0

pspspsps5

Down — $0

PBot-6

Up — $118

+$12.31

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