Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
Resolved Up. 91% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Up 95%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
$456.74
Smart Money Signal
21 of 23 top traders (91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 machinelearned | Upavg 85.5¢ | $333.31 | $347.67 | +$14.36 | 55% 8826-7287 (16113) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 88.7¢ | $304.86 | $315.32 | +$10.46 | 66% 99391-51542 (150933) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 89.5¢ | $238.43 | $266.25 | +$27.83 | 57% 71362-54385 (125747) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 87.8¢ | $210.41 | $220.29 | +$9.88 | 54% 8217-6898 (15115) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 87.7¢ | $204.35 | $209.99 | +$5.64 | 50% 5470-5516 (10986) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 61.2¢ | $192.11 | $313.99 | +$121.88 | 58% 38225-27367 (65592) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 64.1¢ | $189.08 | $295 | +$105.92 | 35% 18983-35988 (54971) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 90¢ | $142 | $150 | +$8 | 62% 44041-27052 (71093) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 91¢ | $136.5 | $150 | +$13.5 | 74% 102858-36493 (139351) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 90.2¢ | $88.93 | $92.5 | +$3.57 | 46% 38429-45392 (83821) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100 | Upavg 77.6¢ | $70.02 | $80.53 | +$10.52 | 55% 15701-13072 (28773) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 86.9¢ | $52.11 | $60 | +$7.89 | 64% 24226-13368 (37594) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 51.6¢ | $51.59 | $100 | +$48.41 | 56% 8168-6307 (14475) |
PB PBot-6 | Upavg 48.5¢ | $48.5 | $100 | +$51.5 | 58% 51198-37322 (88520) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $44 | $44 | +$0 | 60% 12443-8250 (20693) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 85¢ | $37.4 | $44 | +$6.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 15¢ | $6.6 | — | -$6.6 | |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 89.8¢ | $36.87 | $41.05 | +$4.18 | 61% 95474-60238 (155712) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 89.9¢ | $36.87 | $40.99 | +$4.12 | 66% 126575-65169 (191744) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 92.1¢ | $24.88 | $27 | +$2.12 | 55% 7655-6261 (13916) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $24.25 | $25 | +$0.75 | 56% 58403-45070 (103473) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $23 | $25 | +$2 | 64% 40407-23120 (63527) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $22.41 | $24.63 | +$2.22 | 52% 90910-85451 (176361) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Upavg 88.4¢ | $32.84 | $37.14 | +$4.3 | 56% 13954-11066 (25020) |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $2.31 | — | -$2.31 | 65% 4171-2279 (6450) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3666-2839 (6505) |
machinelearnedInvested
$333.31
Value
$347.67
PnL
+$14.36
Record
55%
8826-7287 (16113)
Invested
$304.86
Value
$315.32
PnL
+$10.46
Record
66%
99391-51542 (150933)
Invested
$238.43
Value
$266.25
PnL
+$27.83
Record
57%
71362-54385 (125747)
Invested
$210.41
Value
$220.29
PnL
+$9.88
Record
54%
8217-6898 (15115)
Invested
$204.35
Value
$209.99
PnL
+$5.64
Record
50%
5470-5516 (10986)
Invested
$192.11
Value
$313.99
PnL
+$121.88
Record
58%
38225-27367 (65592)
Invested
$189.08
Value
$295
PnL
+$105.92
Record
35%
18983-35988 (54971)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$142
Value
$150
PnL
+$8
Record
62%
44041-27052 (71093)
BoneOhioInvested
$136.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$13.5
Record
74%
102858-36493 (139351)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$88.93
Value
$92.5
PnL
+$3.57
Record
46%
38429-45392 (83821)
Invested
$70.02
Value
$80.53
PnL
+$10.52
Record
55%
15701-13072 (28773)
Invested
$52.11
Value
$60
PnL
+$7.89
Record
64%
24226-13368 (37594)
Invested
$51.59
Value
$100
PnL
+$48.41
Record
56%
8168-6307 (14475)
Invested
$48.5
Value
$100
PnL
+$51.5
Record
58%
51198-37322 (88520)
Invested
$44
Value
$44
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
12443-8250 (20693)
Both legs:
Invested
$36.87
Value
$41.05
PnL
+$4.18
Record
61%
95474-60238 (155712)
Invested
$36.87
Value
$40.99
PnL
+$4.12
Record
66%
126575-65169 (191744)
Invested
$24.88
Value
$27
PnL
+$2.12
Record
55%
7655-6261 (13916)
Invested
$24.25
Value
$25
PnL
+$0.75
Record
56%
58403-45070 (103473)
ohioism<$100Invested
$23
Value
$25
PnL
+$2
Record
64%
40407-23120 (63527)
Invested
$22.41
Value
$24.63
PnL
+$2.22
Record
52%
90910-85451 (176361)
Invested
$32.84
Value
$37.14
PnL
+$4.3
Record
56%
13954-11066 (25020)
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
$2.31
Value
—
PnL
-$2.31
Record
65%
4171-2279 (6450)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3666-2839 (6505)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
machinelearned
Up — $347.67
Bonereaper
Up — $315.32
uninformedfloww
Up — $266.25
sfkjbsr457
Up — $220.29
ply-pm0
Up — $209.99
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $313.99
Little-big
Up — $295
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $150
BoneOhio
Up — $150
pspspsps5
Up — $92.5