Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$25.57
Smart Money Signal
15 of 21 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $397.52 | $397.92 | +$0.4 | 59% 62520-43633 (106153) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 88¢ | $319.18 | $296.33 | -$22.85 | 50% 5470-5516 (10986) |
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700 | Downavg 60¢ | $311.4 | $519.37 | +$207.97 | 63% 1777-1034 (2811) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 83.5¢ | $180.23 | $202.31 | +$22.07 | 55% 7655-6261 (13916) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Downavg 88¢ | $205.03 | $168 | -$37.03 | 54% 8217-6898 (15115) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 84.5¢ | $132.81 | $139.27 | +$6.46 | 46% 38429-45392 (83821) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 19.8¢ | $223.63 | — | -$223.63 | 55% 8826-7287 (16113) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 47¢ | $72 | $120 | +$48 | 58% 51198-37322 (88520) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Upavg 32.7¢ | $63.12 | $25 | -$38.12 | 60% 12443-8250 (20693) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.7¢ | $43.12 | — | -$43.12 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80¢ | $20 | $25 | +$5 | |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $45.76 | — | -$45.76 | 56% 8168-6307 (14475) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.2¢ | $13.6 | — | -$13.6 | 64% 40407-23120 (63527) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 88.5¢ | $64.14 | $72.43 | +$8.29 | 66% 126575-65169 (191744) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 64.6¢ | $40.46 | $62.67 | +$22.21 | 35% 18983-35988 (54971) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 84.4¢ | $30.71 | $35.22 | +$4.52 | 55% 24060-19438 (43498) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 66.3¢ | $13.8 | $11.96 | -$1.84 | 66% 99391-51542 (150933) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $20.08 | $18 | -$2.08 | 49% 78260-81715 (159975) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $16.68 | $15.61 | -$1.07 | 64% 24226-13368 (37594) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $29.32 | $32.95 | +$3.63 | 52% 90910-85451 (176361) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $25.43 | $29.92 | +$4.49 | 57% 71362-54385 (125747) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $3.75 | — | -$3.75 | 58% 60841-44423 (105264) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 0.4¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 63% 52240-31232 (83472) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3666-2839 (6505) |
Invested
$397.52
Value
$397.92
PnL
+$0.4
Record
59%
62520-43633 (106153)
Invested
$319.18
Value
$296.33
PnL
-$22.85
Record
50%
5470-5516 (10986)
Invested
$311.4
Value
$519.37
PnL
+$207.97
Record
63%
1777-1034 (2811)
Invested
$180.23
Value
$202.31
PnL
+$22.07
Record
55%
7655-6261 (13916)
Invested
$205.03
Value
$168
PnL
-$37.03
Record
54%
8217-6898 (15115)
pspspsps5Invested
$132.81
Value
$139.27
PnL
+$6.46
Record
46%
38429-45392 (83821)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$223.63
Value
—
PnL
-$223.63
Record
55%
8826-7287 (16113)
Invested
$72
Value
$120
PnL
+$48
Record
58%
51198-37322 (88520)
Invested
$63.12
Value
$25
PnL
-$38.12
Record
60%
12443-8250 (20693)
Both legs:
Invested
$45.76
Value
—
PnL
-$45.76
Record
56%
8168-6307 (14475)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$13.6
Value
—
PnL
-$13.6
Record
64%
40407-23120 (63527)
Invested
$64.14
Value
$72.43
PnL
+$8.29
Record
66%
126575-65169 (191744)
Invested
$40.46
Value
$62.67
PnL
+$22.21
Record
35%
18983-35988 (54971)
Invested
$30.71
Value
$35.22
PnL
+$4.52
Record
55%
24060-19438 (43498)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$11.96
PnL
-$1.84
Record
66%
99391-51542 (150933)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$20.08
Value
$18
PnL
-$2.08
Record
49%
78260-81715 (159975)
Invested
$16.68
Value
$15.61
PnL
-$1.07
Record
64%
24226-13368 (37594)
Invested
$29.32
Value
$32.95
PnL
+$3.63
Record
52%
90910-85451 (176361)
Invested
$25.43
Value
$29.92
PnL
+$4.49
Record
57%
71362-54385 (125747)
Invested
$3.75
Value
—
PnL
-$3.75
Record
58%
60841-44423 (105264)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
63%
52240-31232 (83472)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3666-2839 (6505)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $397.92
ply-pm0
Down — $296.33
0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700
Down — $519.37
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $202.31
sfkjbsr457
Down — $168
pspspsps5
Down — $139.27
machinelearned
CTRUp — $0
PBot-6
Down — $120
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
CTRUp — $0