Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

19 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Up (70%) · Up at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$82.08

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 100¢

+21% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 27 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,804

Combined PnL-$36.79

Down8 traders

Total Value$242.13

Total Shares1,141

Combined PnL+$118.87

Up — 70%Down — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ohioism	Upavg 82.1¢	$339.25	$327.67	-$11.58	64% 40407-23120 (63527)
pspspsps5	Upavg 92.3¢	$205.71	$196.11	-$9.6	46% 38429-45392 (83821)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 77¢	$206.14	$186.51	-$19.63	50% 5470-5516 (10986)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 77.8¢	$159.85	$155.4	-$4.46	55% 15701-13072 (28773)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 80.1¢	$153.79	$148.81	-$4.98	58% 60841-44423 (105264)
0X 0x50f7CTR	Downavg 4¢	$20.82	$118.56	+$97.74	59% 62520-43633 (106153)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 92¢	$110.4	$112.2	+$1.8	49% 78260-81715 (159975)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 55.5¢	$107.65	$96.02	-$11.63	58% 38225-27367 (65592)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 80.7¢	$70.05	$79.71	+$9.66	55% 7655-6261 (13916)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 81.5¢	$61.21	$64.14	+$2.93	57% 12667-9734 (22401)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 66.1¢	$44.88	$60.65	+$15.77	66% 99391-51542 (150933)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.1¢	$33.7	$39.5	+$5.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 11.9¢	$11.18	$21.15	+$9.97
GO GoodFallen<$100	Upavg 71.2¢	$52.69	$57.86	+$5.17	56% 13954-11066 (25020)
SP spartacray<$100	Upavg 84.4¢	$44.48	$52.65	+$8.17	53% 27403-24322 (51725)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 89.9¢	$48.87	$50.83	+$1.95	60% 12443-8250 (20693)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 89¢	$34.96	$39.26	+$4.3	61% 95474-60238 (155712)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 83.7¢	$32.42	$30.02	-$2.4	64% 24226-13368 (37594)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 95.1¢	$34.69	$28.28	-$6.41	52% 90910-85451 (176361)
LI Little-big<$100	Upavg 44¢	$22.5	$25.82	+$3.32	35% 18983-35988 (54971)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 89¢	$34.96	$21.4	-$13.56	66% 126575-65169 (191744)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 88¢	$17.6	$15.5	-$2.1	55% 24060-19438 (43498)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$11.75	$12.38	+$0.63	56% 8168-6307 (14475)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 12¢	$5	$9.37	+$4.37	66% 112365-59078 (171443)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 83¢	$6.47	$6.99	+$0.52	65% 4171-2279 (6450)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$4.6	$4.95	+$0.35	58% 51198-37322 (88520)
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 75¢	$3	$3.1	+$0.1	55% 8826-7287 (16113)

ohioism

Invested

$339.25

Value

$327.67

PnL

-$11.58

Record

64%

40407-23120 (63527)

pspspsps5

Invested

$205.71

Value

$196.11

PnL

-$9.6

Record

46%

38429-45392 (83821)

ply-pm0

Invested

$206.14

Value

$186.51

PnL

-$19.63

Record

50%

5470-5516 (10986)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$159.85

Value

$155.4

PnL

-$4.46

Record

55%

15701-13072 (28773)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$153.79

Value

$148.81

PnL

-$4.98

Record

58%

60841-44423 (105264)

0x50f7CTR

Down

Invested

$20.82

Value

$118.56

PnL

+$97.74

Record

59%

62520-43633 (106153)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$110.4

Value

$112.2

PnL

+$1.8

Record

49%

78260-81715 (159975)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$107.65

Value

$96.02

PnL

-$11.63

Record

58%

38225-27367 (65592)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$70.05

Value

$79.71

PnL

+$9.66

Record

55%

7655-6261 (13916)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$61.21

Value

$64.14

PnL

+$2.93

Record

57%

12667-9734 (22401)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$44.88

Value

$60.65

PnL

+$15.77

Record

66%

99391-51542 (150933)

Both legs:

Up$33.766.1¢+$5.8

Down$11.1811.9¢+$9.97

GoodFallen<$100

Invested

$52.69

Value

$57.86

PnL

+$5.17

Record

56%

13954-11066 (25020)

spartacray<$100

Invested

$44.48

Value

$52.65

PnL

+$8.17

Record

53%

27403-24322 (51725)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$48.87

Value

$50.83

PnL

+$1.95

Record

60%

12443-8250 (20693)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$34.96

Value

$39.26

PnL

+$4.3

Record

61%

95474-60238 (155712)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$32.42

Value

$30.02

PnL

-$2.4

Record

64%

24226-13368 (37594)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$34.69

Value

$28.28

PnL

-$6.41

Record

52%

90910-85451 (176361)

Little-big<$100

Invested

$22.5

Value

$25.82

PnL

+$3.32

Record

35%

18983-35988 (54971)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$34.96

Value

$21.4

PnL

-$13.56

Record

66%

126575-65169 (191744)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$17.6

Value

$15.5

PnL

-$2.1

Record

55%

24060-19438 (43498)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.75

Value

$12.38

PnL

+$0.63

Record

56%

8168-6307 (14475)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$9.37

PnL

+$4.37

Record

66%

112365-59078 (171443)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$6.47

Value

$6.99

PnL

+$0.52

Record

65%

4171-2279 (6450)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.35

Record

58%

51198-37322 (88520)

machinelearned<$100

Invested

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

8826-7287 (16113)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 27 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.