Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Up 71%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
$133.53
Smart Money Signal
16 of 22 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 72.4¢ | $325.56 | $319.52 | -$6.03 | 50% 5459-5511 (10970) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 62.5¢ | $215.56 | $344.92 | +$129.36 | 58% 38198-27356 (65554) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 86¢ | $157.18 | $167.96 | +$10.78 | 54% 8204-6894 (15098) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 87¢ | $94.49 | $90 | -$4.49 | 55% 15691-13067 (28758) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 87¢ | $78.3 | $90 | +$11.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 10.8¢ | $16.19 | — | -$16.19 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 12.8¢ | $83.04 | — | -$83.04 | 57% 71318-54356 (125674) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 71.2¢ | $75.75 | $99.05 | +$23.3 | 55% 18106-14696 (32802) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 57.5¢ | $39.75 | $63.9 | +$24.15 | 46% 38408-45370 (83778) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $58.86 | $67.96 | +$9.1 | 55% 7645-6254 (13899) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 88.1¢ | $46.05 | $52.25 | +$6.2 | 64% 24172-13343 (37515) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $42.03 | $50 | +$7.97 | 55% 8816-7280 (16096) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Upavg 72¢ | $28.8 | $40 | +$11.2 | 56% 13945-11059 (25004) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $22 | $25 | +$3 | 62% 44015-27038 (71053) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $25.51 | $39.86 | +$14.35 | 60% 12433-8243 (20676) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $22.5 | $30 | +$7.5 | 65% 125844-67348 (193192) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $17.1 | $19.21 | +$2.11 | 66% 126538-65157 (191695) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $14.38 | $16.55 | +$2.17 | 56% 58383-45054 (103437) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $9.8 | — | -$9.8 | 58% 51183-37311 (88494) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $4 | — | -$4 | 64% 40387-23103 (63490) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $10.51 | — | -$10.51 | 63% 52223-31187 (83410) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $5.58 | $6.34 | +$0.76 | 65% 4158-2273 (6431) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $3.16 | — | -$3.16 | 49% 78195-81703 (159898) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 14¢ | $1.87 | — | -$1.87 | 58% 60824-44408 (105232) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3666-2839 (6505) |
Invested
$325.56
Value
$319.52
PnL
-$6.03
Record
50%
5459-5511 (10970)
Invested
$215.56
Value
$344.92
PnL
+$129.36
Record
58%
38198-27356 (65554)
Invested
$157.18
Value
$167.96
PnL
+$10.78
Record
54%
8204-6894 (15098)
Invested
$94.49
Value
$90
PnL
-$4.49
Record
55%
15691-13067 (28758)
Both legs:
Invested
$83.04
Value
—
PnL
-$83.04
Record
57%
71318-54356 (125674)
Invested
$75.75
Value
$99.05
PnL
+$23.3
Record
55%
18106-14696 (32802)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$39.75
Value
$63.9
PnL
+$24.15
Record
46%
38408-45370 (83778)
Invested
$58.86
Value
$67.96
PnL
+$9.1
Record
55%
7645-6254 (13899)
Invested
$46.05
Value
$52.25
PnL
+$6.2
Record
64%
24172-13343 (37515)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$42.03
Value
$50
PnL
+$7.97
Record
55%
8816-7280 (16096)
Invested
$28.8
Value
$40
PnL
+$11.2
Record
56%
13945-11059 (25004)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$22
Value
$25
PnL
+$3
Record
62%
44015-27038 (71053)
Invested
$25.51
Value
$39.86
PnL
+$14.35
Record
60%
12433-8243 (20676)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$30
PnL
+$7.5
Record
65%
125844-67348 (193192)
Invested
$17.1
Value
$19.21
PnL
+$2.11
Record
66%
126538-65157 (191695)
Invested
$14.38
Value
$16.55
PnL
+$2.17
Record
56%
58383-45054 (103437)
Invested
$9.8
Value
—
PnL
-$9.8
Record
58%
51183-37311 (88494)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$4
Value
—
PnL
-$4
Record
64%
40387-23103 (63490)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$10.51
Value
—
PnL
-$10.51
Record
63%
52223-31187 (83410)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$5.58
Value
$6.34
PnL
+$0.76
Record
65%
4158-2273 (6431)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.16
Value
—
PnL
-$3.16
Record
49%
78195-81703 (159898)
Invested
$1.87
Value
—
PnL
-$1.87
Record
58%
60824-44408 (105232)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3666-2839 (6505)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm0
Up — $319.52
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $344.92
sfkjbsr457
Up — $167.96
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $99.05
pspspsps5
Up — $63.9
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $67.96
aaa221
Up — $52.25
machinelearned
Up — $50