Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 69%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$210.48

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 17 top traders (65%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$984.82

Total Shares985

Combined PnL+$297.6

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares170

Combined PnL-$87.12

Down — 65%Up — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 64.7¢	$727.63	$665.73	-$61.9	55% 15691-13067 (28758)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.7¢	$430.53	$665.73	+$235.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.6¢	$297.1	—	-$297.1
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 66.6¢	$589.3	$538.56	-$50.74	50% 5459-5511 (10970)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.6¢	$358.46	$538.56	+$180.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 33¢	$230.84	—	-$230.84
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 65¢	$349.3	$359.71	+$10.41	56% 13945-11059 (25004)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65¢	$233.8	$359.71	+$125.91
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.4¢	$115.5	—	-$115.5
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 70.8¢	$261.67	$337.39	+$75.72	55% 7645-6254 (13899)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Downavg 72.3¢	$226.18	$228.59	+$2.41	54% 8204-6894 (15098)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.3¢	$165.35	$228.59	+$63.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.7¢	$60.82	—	-$60.82
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 42¢	$261.52	$171.35	-$90.17	60% 12433-8243 (20676)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.3¢	$130.67	$171.35	+$40.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 42¢	$130.85	—	-$130.85
FairValueMachine	Downavg 64¢	$149.68	$170.65	+$20.97	57% 12658-9728 (22386)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 46¢	$84.64	$184	+$99.36	58% 38198-27356 (65554)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 22.8¢	$63.77	$52.14	-$11.63	55% 8816-7280 (16096)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.8¢	$30.14	$52.14	+$22
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.8¢	$33.63	—	-$33.63
LI Little-big	Downavg 64¢	$64.5	$100.76	+$36.26	35% 18977-35980 (54957)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$52.5	—	-$52.5	58% 51183-37311 (88494)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 60.2¢	$42.7	$70.9	+$28.2	46% 38408-45370 (83778)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 50.7¢	$59.79	$26.51	-$33.28	66% 126538-65157 (191695)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.7¢	$43.68	—	-$43.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.8¢	$16.11	$26.51	+$10.4
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 67.5¢	$27	$40	+$13	55% 24051-19433 (43484)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 62.5¢	$31.36	$32.1	+$5.83	64% 24172-13343 (37515)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 61¢	$15.12	$24.78	+$9.66	49% 78195-81703 (159898)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 47.6¢	$8.19	$13	+$4.81	58% 60824-44408 (105232)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 29.2¢	$10.97	—	-$10.97	63% 52223-31187 (83410)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Upavg 51.7¢	$9.99	—	-$9.99	65% 4158-2273 (6431)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 62¢	$11.46	—	-$11.46	52% 90876-85429 (176305)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 73¢	$4.55	$6.23	+$1.68	55% 18106-14696 (32802)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 58¢	$2.91	$5.01	+$2.1	64% 40387-23103 (63490)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$2.2	—	-$2.2	62% 44015-27038 (71053)
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	56% 3666-2839 (6505)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$727.63

Value

$665.73

PnL

-$61.9

Record

55%

15691-13067 (28758)

Both legs:

Down$430.5364.7¢+$235.21

Up$297.130.6¢-$297.1

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$589.3

Value

$538.56

PnL

-$50.74

Record

50%

5459-5511 (10970)

Both legs:

Down$358.4666.6¢+$180.1

Up$230.8433¢-$230.84

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$349.3

Value

$359.71

PnL

+$10.41

Record

56%

13945-11059 (25004)

Both legs:

Down$233.865¢+$125.91

Up$115.536.4¢-$115.5

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$261.67

Value

$337.39

PnL

+$75.72

Record

55%

7645-6254 (13899)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$226.18

Value

$228.59

PnL

+$2.41

Record

54%

8204-6894 (15098)

Both legs:

Down$165.3572.3¢+$63.23

Up$60.8231.7¢-$60.82

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$261.52

Value

$171.35

PnL

-$90.17

Record

60%

12433-8243 (20676)

Both legs:

Down$130.6776.3¢+$40.67

Up$130.8542¢-$130.85

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$149.68

Value

$170.65

PnL

+$20.97

Record

57%

12658-9728 (22386)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$84.64

Value

$184

PnL

+$99.36

Record

58%

38198-27356 (65554)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$63.77

Value

$52.14

PnL

-$11.63

Record

55%

8816-7280 (16096)

Both legs:

Invested

$64.5

Value

$100.76

PnL

+$36.26

Record

35%

18977-35980 (54957)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$52.5

Value

—

PnL

-$52.5

Record

58%

51183-37311 (88494)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$42.7

Value

$70.9

PnL

+$28.2

Record

46%

38408-45370 (83778)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$59.79

Value

$26.51

PnL

-$33.28

Record

66%

126538-65157 (191695)

Both legs:

Up$43.6850.7¢-$43.68

Down$16.1160.8¢+$10.4

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$27

Value

$40

PnL

+$13

Record

55%

24051-19433 (43484)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$31.36

Value

$32.1

PnL

+$5.83

Record

64%

24172-13343 (37515)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$15.12

Value

$24.78

PnL

+$9.66

Record

49%

78195-81703 (159898)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$8.19

Value

$13

PnL

+$4.81

Record

58%

60824-44408 (105232)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$10.97

Value

—

PnL

-$10.97

Record

63%

52223-31187 (83410)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

—

PnL

-$9.99

Record

65%

4158-2273 (6431)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$11.46

Value

—

PnL

-$11.46

Record

52%

90876-85429 (176305)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$4.55

Value

$6.23

PnL

+$1.68

Record

55%

18106-14696 (32802)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$2.91

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$2.1

Record

64%

40387-23103 (63490)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

—

PnL

-$2.2

Record

62%

44015-27038 (71053)

arcsine-barristerCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3666-2839 (6505)

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 17 top traders (65%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0bc8b975...9ee576

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793473500

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $337.39

+$75.72

sfkjbsr457

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$2.41

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$90.17

FairValueMachine

Down — $170.65

+$20.97

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $184

+$99.36

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$11.63

Little-big

Down — $100.76

+$36.26

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