Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Up 70%
1 arb excluded
$977.62
-$116.19
Smart Money Signal
15 of 21 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 79.2¢ | $203.3 | $188.43 | -$14.87 | 50% 5459-5511 (10970) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 70.1¢ | $121.16 | $153.79 | +$32.63 | 54% 8204-6894 (15098) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 76.7¢ | $134.25 | $175 | +$40.75 | 56% 58383-45054 (103437) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $139.49 | $119.99 | -$19.5 | 55% 15691-13067 (28758) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77¢ | $92.39 | $119.99 | +$27.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.6¢ | $47.1 | — | -$47.1 | |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 55.7¢ | $82.83 | — | -$82.83 | 49% 78195-81703 (159898) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $61.62 | — | -$61.62 | 56% 8153-6296 (14449) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 92.7¢ | $56.2 | $60.65 | +$4.45 | 65% 125844-67348 (193192) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 48.1¢ | $46.08 | $50.05 | +$4.52 | 55% 7645-6254 (13899) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $49.2 | $60 | +$10.8 | 56% 13945-11059 (25004) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 71.8¢ | $36.02 | $50.17 | +$14.15 | 66% 126538-65157 (191695) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | $30.23 | — | -$30.23 | 60% 12433-8243 (20676) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $23 | $25 | +$2 | 62% 44015-27038 (71053) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $34.55 | — | -$34.55 | 46% 38408-45370 (83778) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $16.9 | $20.36 | +$3.46 | 55% 18106-14696 (32802) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $15.84 | $16 | +$0.16 | 93% 24008-1800 (25808) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 72¢ | $14.4 | $20 | +$5.6 | 55% 24051-19433 (43484) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 98.2¢ | $14.59 | $14.86 | +$0.27 | 52% 90876-85429 (176305) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $13.6 | $17 | +$3.4 | 74% 102835-36488 (139323) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $14.39 | — | -$14.39 | 63% 52223-31187 (83410) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $5.82 | $6.33 | +$0.51 | 65% 4158-2273 (6431) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $0.4 | — | -$0.4 | 55% 8816-7280 (16096) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3666-2839 (6505) |
Invested
$203.3
Value
$188.43
PnL
-$14.87
Record
50%
5459-5511 (10970)
Invested
$121.16
Value
$153.79
PnL
+$32.63
Record
54%
8204-6894 (15098)
Invested
$134.25
Value
$175
PnL
+$40.75
Record
56%
58383-45054 (103437)
Invested
$139.49
Value
$119.99
PnL
-$19.5
Record
55%
15691-13067 (28758)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$82.83
Value
—
PnL
-$82.83
Record
49%
78195-81703 (159898)
Invested
$61.62
Value
—
PnL
-$61.62
Record
56%
8153-6296 (14449)
Invested
$56.2
Value
$60.65
PnL
+$4.45
Record
65%
125844-67348 (193192)
Invested
$46.08
Value
$50.05
PnL
+$4.52
Record
55%
7645-6254 (13899)
Invested
$49.2
Value
$60
PnL
+$10.8
Record
56%
13945-11059 (25004)
Invested
$36.02
Value
$50.17
PnL
+$14.15
Record
66%
126538-65157 (191695)
Invested
$30.23
Value
—
PnL
-$30.23
Record
60%
12433-8243 (20676)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$23
Value
$25
PnL
+$2
Record
62%
44015-27038 (71053)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$34.55
Value
—
PnL
-$34.55
Record
46%
38408-45370 (83778)
Invested
$16.9
Value
$20.36
PnL
+$3.46
Record
55%
18106-14696 (32802)
Invested
$15.84
Value
$16
PnL
+$0.16
Record
93%
24008-1800 (25808)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$20
PnL
+$5.6
Record
55%
24051-19433 (43484)
Invested
$14.59
Value
$14.86
PnL
+$0.27
Record
52%
90876-85429 (176305)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$13.6
Value
$17
PnL
+$3.4
Record
74%
102835-36488 (139323)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$14.39
Value
—
PnL
-$14.39
Record
63%
52223-31187 (83410)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$5.82
Value
$6.33
PnL
+$0.51
Record
65%
4158-2273 (6431)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$0.4
Value
—
PnL
-$0.4
Record
55%
8816-7280 (16096)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3666-2839 (6505)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm0
Up — $188.43
sfkjbsr457
Up — $153.79
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $175
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
OhioRiskManagement
CTRDown — $0
wzbbb
CTRDown — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $60.65
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $50.05
GoodFallen
Up — $60
asdaefef
Up — $50.17