Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 42%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

-$569.57

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,889

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Down8 traders

Total Value$976.24

Total Shares976

Combined PnL+$482.75

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Down	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$553.19	56% 3666-2839 (6505)
└ Up leg	Up	—	—	$-2.4K
└ Down leg	Down	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$2.9K
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 58.7¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$127.6	50% 5459-5511 (10970)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37¢	$403.13	—	-$403.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.7¢	$753.84	$1.3K	+$530.73
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 70¢	$943.61	$899.87	-$43.74	76% 9504-2927 (12431)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32¢	$313.94	—	-$313.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 70¢	$629.67	$899.87	+$270.2
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 53¢	$735.3	—	-$735.3	58% 38198-27356 (65554)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 46.4¢	$659.09	$564.28	-$94.8	55% 15691-13067 (28758)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.4¢	$345.68	—	-$345.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$313.41	$564.28	+$250.87
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 60.3¢	$505.96	$427.8	-$78.17	60% 12433-8243 (20676)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.5¢	$248.1	—	-$248.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.3¢	$257.86	$427.8	+$169.93
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 39.6¢	$280.31	$231.39	-$48.92	56% 13945-11059 (25004)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.6¢	$165.6	—	-$165.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$114.72	$231.39	+$116.67
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 42.3¢	$267.82	—	-$267.82	57% 12658-9728 (22386)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 39¢	$187.24	$349.55	+$162.32	55% 8816-7280 (16096)
└ Up leg	Upavg 16¢	$50.99	—	-$50.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 39¢	$136.25	$349.55	+$213.3
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 67.7¢	$385.64	$410.59	+$27.35	55% 7645-6254 (13899)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.1¢	$105.17	—	-$105.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.7¢	$278.12	$410.59	+$132.47
pspspsps5	Downavg 46.1¢	$181.95	$394.92	+$212.97	46% 38408-45370 (83778)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 39.5¢	$108.56	$275.1	+$166.54	49% 78195-81703 (159898)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 56¢	$82.32	$54.91	-$27.41	59% 6948-4880 (11828)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56¢	$57.61	—	-$57.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 45¢	$24.71	$54.91	+$30.2
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 44¢	$52.75	$120	+$67.25	56% 8153-6296 (14449)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 69.8¢	$35	—	-$35	62% 44015-27038 (71053)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 63.6¢	$37.22	$41.22	+$4.01	55% 24051-19433 (43484)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 36¢	$14.4	$39.99	+$25.6	57% 71318-54356 (125674)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 97¢	$72.75	$75	+$2.25	93% 24008-1800 (25808)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 44¢	$21.77	$30	+$8.23	58% 51183-37311 (88494)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Upavg 67¢	$9.75	—	-$9.75	65% 4158-2273 (6431)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 33¢	$4.45	—	-$4.45	63% 52223-31187 (83410)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 59.1¢	$446.38	$0	-$4.1	54% 8204-6894 (15098)

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,249.6

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$553.19

Record

56%

3666-2839 (6505)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,156.97

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$127.6

Record

50%

5459-5511 (10970)

Both legs:

Up$403.1337¢-$403.13

Down$753.8458.7¢+$530.73

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$943.61

Value

$899.87

PnL

-$43.74

Record

76%

9504-2927 (12431)

Both legs:

Up$313.9432¢-$313.94

Down$629.6770¢+$270.2

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$735.3

Value

—

PnL

-$735.3

Record

58%

38198-27356 (65554)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$659.09

Value

$564.28

PnL

-$94.8

Record

55%

15691-13067 (28758)

Both legs:

Up$345.6846.4¢-$345.68

Down$313.4155.5¢+$250.87

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$505.96

Value

$427.8

PnL

-$78.17

Record

60%

12433-8243 (20676)

Both legs:

Up$248.157.5¢-$248.1

Down$257.8660.3¢+$169.93

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$280.31

Value

$231.39

PnL

-$48.92

Record

56%

13945-11059 (25004)

Both legs:

Up$165.639.6¢-$165.6

Down$114.7249.6¢+$116.67

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$267.82

Value

—

PnL

-$267.82

Record

57%

12658-9728 (22386)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$187.24

Value

$349.55

PnL

+$162.32

Record

55%

8816-7280 (16096)

Both legs:

Up$50.9916¢-$50.99

Down$136.2539¢+$213.3

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$385.64

Value

$410.59

PnL

+$27.35

Record

55%

7645-6254 (13899)

Both legs:

Up$105.1747.1¢-$105.12

Down$278.1267.7¢+$132.47

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$181.95

Value

$394.92

PnL

+$212.97

Record

46%

38408-45370 (83778)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$108.56

Value

$275.1

PnL

+$166.54

Record

49%

78195-81703 (159898)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$82.32

Value

$54.91

PnL

-$27.41

Record

59%

6948-4880 (11828)

Both legs:

Invested

$52.75

Value

$120

PnL

+$67.25

Record

56%

8153-6296 (14449)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$35

Value

—

PnL

-$35

Record

62%

44015-27038 (71053)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$37.22

Value

$41.22

PnL

+$4.01

Record

55%

24051-19433 (43484)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$14.4

Value

$39.99

PnL

+$25.6

Record

57%

71318-54356 (125674)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$72.75

Value

$75

PnL

+$2.25

Record

93%

24008-1800 (25808)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$21.77

Value

$30

PnL

+$8.23

Record

58%

51183-37311 (88494)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Invested

$9.75

Value

—

PnL

-$9.75

Record

65%

4158-2273 (6431)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$4.45

Value

—

PnL

-$4.45

Record

63%

52223-31187 (83410)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$446.38

Value

PnL

-$4.1

Record

54%

8204-6894 (15098)

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x335fb543...245c1d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793472900

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$735.3

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$94.8

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Up — $0

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$27.35

Trade on Polymarket