Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 76%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$807.65

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 27 top traders (74%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,414

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,524

Combined PnL-$570.07

Down — 74%Up — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$3.04	59% 62520-43633 (106153)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 78.8¢	$548.82	$625.25	+$76.42	56% 14731-11594 (26325)
TE TelawinCTR	Upavg 52.4¢	$500	—	-$500	50% 349-344 (693)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 75¢	$209.72	$183	-$26.72	55% 15701-13072 (28773)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75¢	$137.32	$183	+$45.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.1¢	$72.4	—	-$72.4
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	64% 58732-33314 (92046)
LI Little-big	Downavg 47.6¢	$119	$250	+$131	35% 18983-35988 (54971)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 89¢	$252.73	$244.12	+$235.52	54% 8217-6898 (15115)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 64¢	$146.59	$117.98	-$28.61	56% 13954-11066 (25020)
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.4¢	$71.09	—	-$71.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 64¢	$75.5	$117.98	+$42.48
MO mo-money	Downavg 72.7¢	$116.74	$156.76	+$40.02	55% 50710-41324 (92034)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 21.3¢	$116.88	$93.72	-$23.16	50% 5470-5516 (10986)
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.3¢	$66.19	—	-$66.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.1¢	$50.69	$93.72	+$43.03
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 84.5¢	$122.18	$141.37	+$19.19	46% 38429-45392 (83821)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.5¢	$119.53	$141.37	+$21.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 2¢	$2.65	—	-$2.65
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 89.5¢	$144.76	$150	+$5.24	56% 58403-45070 (103473)
BoneOhio	Downavg 82.8¢	$123.47	$149.04	+$25.57	74% 102858-36493 (139351)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 66.8¢	$76.52	$108.05	+$32.88	55% 7655-6261 (13916)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 86.9¢	$90.61	$87.17	-$3.44	55% 8826-7287 (16113)
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Downavg 81¢	$34.85	$39.25	+$4.4	49% 78260-81715 (159975)
└ Up leg	Upavg 2¢	$3.06	—	-$3.06
└ Down leg	Downavg 81¢	$31.79	$39.25	+$7.46
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 79.6¢	$63.7	$60.68	-$3.02	60% 12443-8250 (20693)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.6¢	$48.27	$60.68	+$12.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 16.1¢	$15.43	—	-$15.43
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 0.5¢	$1	—	-$1	63% 52240-31232 (83472)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 46.7¢	$36.92	$78.99	+$42.08	58% 51198-37322 (88520)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 64.1¢	$47.4	$73.9	+$26.5	55% 18125-14708 (32833)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 91.2¢	$44.83	$44.83	+$3.96	61% 95474-60238 (155712)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 82.6¢	$51.76	$62.66	+$10.9	65% 125846-67348 (193194)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 91¢	$52.27	$57.44	+$5.17	66% 126575-65169 (191744)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 91.1¢	$47	$51.59	+$4.59	52% 90910-85451 (176361)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 81¢	$16.2	$20	+$3.8	55% 24060-19438 (43498)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$3,037.18

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$3.04

Record

59%

62520-43633 (106153)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$548.82

Value

$625.25

PnL

+$76.42

Record

56%

14731-11594 (26325)

TelawinCTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

50%

349-344 (693)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$209.72

Value

$183

PnL

-$26.72

Record

55%

15701-13072 (28773)

Both legs:

Down$137.3275¢+$45.68

Up$72.425.1¢-$72.4

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

58732-33314 (92046)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$119

Value

$250

PnL

+$131

Record

35%

18983-35988 (54971)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$252.73

Value

$244.12

PnL

+$235.52

Record

54%

8217-6898 (15115)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$146.59

Value

$117.98

PnL

-$28.61

Record

56%

13954-11066 (25020)

Both legs:

Invested

$116.74

Value

$156.76

PnL

+$40.02

Record

55%

50710-41324 (92034)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$116.88

Value

$93.72

PnL

-$23.16

Record

50%

5470-5516 (10986)

Both legs:

Up$66.1921.3¢-$66.19

Down$50.6954.1¢+$43.03

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$122.18

Value

$141.37

PnL

+$19.19

Record

46%

38429-45392 (83821)

Both legs:

Down$119.5384.5¢+$21.84

Up$2.652¢-$2.65

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$144.76

Value

$150

PnL

+$5.24

Record

56%

58403-45070 (103473)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$123.47

Value

$149.04

PnL

+$25.57

Record

74%

102858-36493 (139351)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$76.52

Value

$108.05

PnL

+$32.88

Record

55%

7655-6261 (13916)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$90.61

Value

$87.17

PnL

-$3.44

Record

55%

8826-7287 (16113)

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Down

Invested

$34.85

Value

$39.25

PnL

+$4.4

Record

49%

78260-81715 (159975)

Both legs:

Up$3.062¢-$3.06

Down$31.7981¢+$7.46

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$63.7

Value

$60.68

PnL

-$3.02

Record

60%

12443-8250 (20693)

Both legs:

Down$48.2779.6¢+$12.4

Up$15.4316.1¢-$15.43

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$1

Record

63%

52240-31232 (83472)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$36.92

Value

$78.99

PnL

+$42.08

Record

58%

51198-37322 (88520)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$47.4

Value

$73.9

PnL

+$26.5

Record

55%

18125-14708 (32833)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$44.83

Value

$44.83

PnL

+$3.96

Record

61%

95474-60238 (155712)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$51.76

Value

$62.66

PnL

+$10.9

Record

65%

125846-67348 (193194)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$52.27

Value

$57.44

PnL

+$5.17

Record

66%

126575-65169 (191744)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$47

Value

$51.59

PnL

+$4.59

Record

52%

90910-85451 (176361)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$16.2

Value

$20

PnL

+$3.8

Record

55%

24060-19438 (43498)

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 27 top traders (74%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xe3ab742b...a1cedc

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793472600

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $3.0K

+$3.04

CrouchPredictions

Down — $625.25

+$76.42

Telawin

CTR

Up — $0

-$500

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$26.72

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $200

+$0

Little-big

Down — $250

+$131

sfkjbsr457

Down — $244.12

+$235.52

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$28.61

mo-money

Down — $156.76

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded