Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
41
Down 47%
$2.5K
$-6.1K
Smart Money Signal
25 of 41 top traders (61%)25 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 machinelearned | Upavg 48.6¢ | $964.32 | $1.1K | +$177.55 | 55% 8826-7287 (16113) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 62.8¢ | $888.47 | $964.15 | +$75.68 | 55% 7655-6261 (13916) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR | Downavg 50.1¢ | $815.88 | — | -$815.88 | 60% 12443-8250 (20693) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR | Downavg 66.3¢ | $353.39 | — | -$353.39 | 53% 2028-1826 (3854) |
SI sir-upalot | Upavg 65.5¢ | $200.96 | $231.02 | +$30.05 | 55% 24060-19438 (43498) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 84¢ | $89.25 | $101.19 | +$11.94 | 56% 58403-45070 (103473) |
BO borderlocketCTR | Downavg 60.8¢ | $4.7K | — | $-4.7K | 49% 76-79 (155) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 23.2¢ | $27.65 | — | -$27.65 | 63% 52240-31232 (83472) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 24.5¢ | $9.8 | $40 | +$30.2 | 58% 51198-37322 (88520) |
AA aaa221 | Upavg 62.5¢ | $154.95 | $29.76 | -$68.01 | 64% 24226-13368 (37594) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 78.4¢ | $13.42 | $17.12 | +$3.7 | 52% 90910-85451 (176361) |
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $5.45 | $6 | +$0.55 | 58% 1347-974 (2321) |
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR | Downavg 59.7¢ | $245.04 | — | -$245.04 | 63% 1777-1034 (2811) |
SF sfkjbsr457CTR | Downavg 55.5¢ | $929.28 | — | -$55.23 | 54% 8217-6898 (15115) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR<$100 | Downavg 31.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 55% 15701-13072 (28773) |
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100 | Downavg 32.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 13954-11066 (25020) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3666-2839 (6505) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Downavg 69.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 66% 99391-51542 (150933) |
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100 | Downavg 67.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 429-386 (815) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Downavg 31.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 12667-9734 (22401) |
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100 | Downavg 26¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 5858-4296 (10154) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 60.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 38225-27367 (65592) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 43.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 8168-6307 (14475) |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | — | — | +$0 | 65% 4171-2279 (6450) |
 NIULAI4CTR<$100 | Downavg 38.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 76% 9506-2936 (12442) |
machinelearnedInvested
$964.32
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$177.55
Record
55%
8826-7287 (16113)
Invested
$888.47
Value
$964.15
PnL
+$75.68
Record
55%
7655-6261 (13916)
Invested
$815.88
Value
—
PnL
-$815.88
Record
60%
12443-8250 (20693)
Invested
$353.39
Value
—
PnL
-$353.39
Record
53%
2028-1826 (3854)
Invested
$200.96
Value
$231.02
PnL
+$30.05
Record
55%
24060-19438 (43498)
Invested
$89.25
Value
$101.19
PnL
+$11.94
Record
56%
58403-45070 (103473)
Invested
$4,715.88
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
49%
76-79 (155)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$27.65
Value
—
PnL
-$27.65
Record
63%
52240-31232 (83472)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$40
PnL
+$30.2
Record
58%
51198-37322 (88520)
Invested
$154.95
Value
$29.76
PnL
-$68.01
Record
64%
24226-13368 (37594)
Invested
$13.42
Value
$17.12
PnL
+$3.7
Record
52%
90910-85451 (176361)
Invested
$5.45
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.55
Record
58%
1347-974 (2321)
Invested
$245.04
Value
—
PnL
-$245.04
Record
63%
1777-1034 (2811)
Invested
$929.28
Value
—
PnL
-$55.23
Record
54%
8217-6898 (15115)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
15701-13072 (28773)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
13954-11066 (25020)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3666-2839 (6505)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
66%
99391-51542 (150933)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
429-386 (815)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
12667-9734 (22401)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
5858-4296 (10154)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
38225-27367 (65592)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
8168-6307 (14475)
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
4171-2279 (6450)
NIULAI4CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
9506-2936 (12442)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
machinelearned
Up — $1.1K
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $964.15
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
CTRDown — $0
0xdc27...afdd9a
CTRDown — $0
sir-upalot
Up — $231.02
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $101.19
borderlocket
CTRDown — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRDown — $0
PBot-6
Up — $40
aaa221
Up — $29.76