Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
33
Down 64%
$620
-$231.5
Smart Money Signal
12 of 33 top traders (36%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 69.5¢ | $313.13 | $379.49 | +$66.36 | 55% 7655-6261 (13916) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 81¢ | $110.37 | $97.98 | -$9.54 | 60% 12443-8250 (20693) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 66.5¢ | $87.71 | $89.99 | +$31.35 | 64% 24226-13368 (37594) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 79.6¢ | $44.44 | $52.54 | +$8.1 | 55% 24060-19438 (43498) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 1.1¢ | $37.02 | — | -$37.02 | 63% 52240-31232 (83472) |
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR | Downavg 29.4¢ | $124.53 | — | -$120.93 | 63% 1777-1034 (2811) |
SF sfkjbsr457CTR | Downavg 25.6¢ | $368.65 | — | +$0.97 | 54% 8217-6898 (15115) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 24.3¢ | $288.35 | — | +$26.9 | 55% 8826-7287 (16113) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 8.2¢ | $6.24 | — | -$6.24 | 52% 90910-85451 (176361) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100 | Upavg 69.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 55% 15701-13072 (28773) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Upavg 74.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 13954-11066 (25020) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3666-2839 (6505) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Upavg 78.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 66% 99391-51542 (150933) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 53.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 12667-9734 (22401) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 70.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 38225-27367 (65592) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 59% 62520-43633 (106153) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 8168-6307 (14475) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | — | — | +$0 | 65% 4171-2279 (6450) |
 NIULAI4CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 76% 9506-2936 (12442) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 14.7¢ | $885.47 | — | -$33.82 | 50% 5470-5516 (10986) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 10.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 78260-81715 (159975) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $53.31 | — | +$14.17 | 74% 102858-36493 (139351) |
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR | Downavg 13.1¢ | $1.3K | — | -$171.8 | 51% 882-860 (1742) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Downavg 31¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 7913-7939 (15852) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 71362-54385 (125747) |
Invested
$313.13
Value
$379.49
PnL
+$66.36
Record
55%
7655-6261 (13916)
Invested
$110.37
Value
$97.98
PnL
-$9.54
Record
60%
12443-8250 (20693)
Invested
$87.71
Value
$89.99
PnL
+$31.35
Record
64%
24226-13368 (37594)
Invested
$44.44
Value
$52.54
PnL
+$8.1
Record
55%
24060-19438 (43498)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$37.02
Value
—
PnL
-$37.02
Record
63%
52240-31232 (83472)
Invested
$124.53
Value
—
PnL
-$120.93
Record
63%
1777-1034 (2811)
Invested
$368.65
Value
—
PnL
+$0.97
Record
54%
8217-6898 (15115)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$288.35
Value
—
PnL
+$26.9
Record
55%
8826-7287 (16113)
Invested
$6.24
Value
—
PnL
-$6.24
Record
52%
90910-85451 (176361)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
15701-13072 (28773)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
13954-11066 (25020)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3666-2839 (6505)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
66%
99391-51542 (150933)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
12667-9734 (22401)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
38225-27367 (65592)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
62520-43633 (106153)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
8168-6307 (14475)
Atomforge<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
4171-2279 (6450)
NIULAI4CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
9506-2936 (12442)
Invested
$885.47
Value
—
PnL
-$33.82
Record
50%
5470-5516 (10986)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
78260-81715 (159975)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$53.31
Value
—
PnL
+$14.17
Record
74%
102858-36493 (139351)
Invested
$1,313.19
Value
—
PnL
-$171.8
Record
51%
882-860 (1742)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7913-7939 (15852)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
71362-54385 (125747)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $379.49
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $97.98
aaa221
Up — $89.99
sir-upalot
Up — $52.54
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRDown — $0
0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700
CTRDown — $0
sfkjbsr457
CTRDown — $0
machinelearned
CTRDown — $0
dvasdkasodk
CTRDown — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $0