Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$193.47

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 25 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,580

Combined PnL+$162.57

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,207

Combined PnL-$356.04

Down — 76%Up — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pspspsps5	Downavg 95.2¢	$408.03	$428.82	+$20.79	46% 38388-45341 (83729)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 74.3¢	$286.49	$287.29	+$0.8	50% 5445-5505 (10950)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 81.5¢	$269	$268.77	-$0.24	54% 8190-6886 (15076)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 61.8¢	$224.29	$240.35	+$16.06	55% 15683-13056 (28739)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$216.3	$218.48	+$2.18	74% 102820-36477 (139297)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 87.8¢	$164.12	$186.95	+$22.83	57% 71256-54324 (125580)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 19.9¢	$299.03	—	-$299.03	55% 8806-7268 (16074)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 48.9¢	$166.32	$65.66	-$100.66	56% 13935-11051 (24986)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.9¢	$122.31	—	-$122.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 67¢	$44.01	$65.66	+$21.65
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 68.7¢	$117.16	$140.66	+$23.5	66% 99369-51530 (150899)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 81.6¢	$131.21	$120.87	-$8.32	55% 7631-6246 (13877)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 75¢	$133.31	$118.89	-$14.42	60% 12418-8236 (20654)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$95.04	$96	+$0.96	93% 23988-1799 (25787)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 61.3¢	$107.41	$140.51	+$33.11	59% 6936-4871 (11807)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.3¢	$86.17	$140.51	+$54.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 43¢	$21.24	—	-$21.24
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 79.7¢	$80.15	$90	+$13.45	64% 24117-13303 (37420)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 89¢	$55.91	$40.43	-$15.48	64% 40361-23086 (63447)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 65¢	$65.59	$100.92	+$35.32	58% 38177-27343 (65520)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 98.6¢	$37.18	$36	-$1.18	52% 90849-85392 (176241)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 95.1¢	$34.3	$36.08	+$1.78	66% 126492-65134 (191626)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 45¢	$23.5	$52.22	+$28.72	35% 18964-35964 (54928)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100	Upavg 40.9¢	$42.03	—	-$42.03	59% 23335-16402 (39737)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 79.8¢	$32.49	$40	+$7.51	57% 12653-9717 (22370)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 73.3¢	$27.15	$37.05	+$9.9	55% 18070-14671 (32741)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 54¢	$21.6	$40	+$18.4	56% 8145-6288 (14433)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$7.6	—	-$7.6	55% 24044-19423 (43467)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$4.9	—	-$4.9	58% 51165-37295 (88460)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$408.03

Value

$428.82

PnL

+$20.79

Record

46%

38388-45341 (83729)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$286.49

Value

$287.29

PnL

+$0.8

Record

50%

5445-5505 (10950)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$269

Value

$268.77

PnL

-$0.24

Record

54%

8190-6886 (15076)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$224.29

Value

$240.35

PnL

+$16.06

Record

55%

15683-13056 (28739)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$216.3

Value

$218.48

PnL

+$2.18

Record

74%

102820-36477 (139297)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$164.12

Value

$186.95

PnL

+$22.83

Record

57%

71256-54324 (125580)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$299.03

Value

—

PnL

-$299.03

Record

55%

8806-7268 (16074)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$166.32

Value

$65.66

PnL

-$100.66

Record

56%

13935-11051 (24986)

Both legs:

Up$122.3148.9¢-$122.31

Down$44.0167¢+$21.65

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$117.16

Value

$140.66

PnL

+$23.5

Record

66%

99369-51530 (150899)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$131.21

Value

$120.87

PnL

-$8.32

Record

55%

7631-6246 (13877)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$133.31

Value

$118.89

PnL

-$14.42

Record

60%

12418-8236 (20654)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$95.04

Value

$96

PnL

+$0.96

Record

93%

23988-1799 (25787)

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$107.41

Value

$140.51

PnL

+$33.11

Record

59%

6936-4871 (11807)

Both legs:

Down$86.1761.3¢+$54.35

Up$21.2443¢-$21.24

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$80.15

Value

$90

PnL

+$13.45

Record

64%

24117-13303 (37420)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$55.91

Value

$40.43

PnL

-$15.48

Record

64%

40361-23086 (63447)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$65.59

Value

$100.92

PnL

+$35.32

Record

58%

38177-27343 (65520)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$37.18

Value

$36

PnL

-$1.18

Record

52%

90849-85392 (176241)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$34.3

Value

$36.08

PnL

+$1.78

Record

66%

126492-65134 (191626)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$23.5

Value

$52.22

PnL

+$28.72

Record

35%

18964-35964 (54928)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100

Invested

$42.03

Value

—

PnL

-$42.03

Record

59%

23335-16402 (39737)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$32.49

Value

$40

PnL

+$7.51

Record

57%

12653-9717 (22370)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$27.15

Value

$37.05

PnL

+$9.9

Record

55%

18070-14671 (32741)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$21.6

Value

$40

PnL

+$18.4

Record

56%

8145-6288 (14433)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

—

PnL

-$7.6

Record

55%

24044-19423 (43467)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

—

PnL

-$4.9

Record

58%

51165-37295 (88460)

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 25 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa8fd7200...cf276d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793467200

Traders in this Market

pspspsps5

Down — $428.82

+$20.79

ply-pm0

Down — $287.29

+$0.8

sfkjbsr457

Down — $268.77

-$0.24

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $240.35

+$16.06

BoneOhio

Down — $218.48

+$2.18

uninformedfloww

Down — $186.95

machinelearned

Up — $0

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Down — $140.66

+$23.5

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $120.87

-$8.32

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