Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$232.69

Smart Money Signal

16 of 22 top traders (73%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,921

Combined PnL+$403.53

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares818

Combined PnL-$636.23

Up — 73%Down — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
machinelearned	Upavg 66.9¢	$528.44	$649.83	+$121.39	55% 8806-7268 (16074)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 43.1¢	$455.21	$452.67	-$2.54	50% 5445-5505 (10950)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.8¢	$216.36	$452.67	+$236.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.1¢	$238.85	—	-$238.85
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 69.7¢	$464.78	$481.59	+$16.81	54% 8190-6886 (15076)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 47.4¢	$383.5	$451.65	+$68.15	55% 15683-13056 (28739)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 75¢	$413.97	—	-$413.97	57% 71256-54324 (125580)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 61.9¢	$322.29	$381.29	+$59	60% 12418-8236 (20654)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 68.1¢	$260.29	$306.14	+$45.85	59% 23335-16402 (39737)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 79.6¢	$357	$295.43	-$61.57	55% 7631-6246 (13877)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79.6¢	$235.2	$295.43	+$60.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.1¢	$121.8	—	-$121.8
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 44.7¢	$161.76	$193.51	+$31.75	56% 13935-11051 (24986)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.2¢	$75.3	—	-$75.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.7¢	$86.46	$193.51	+$107.05
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 57.6¢	$129.47	$173.02	+$43.56	66% 99369-51530 (150899)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 29.8¢	$33.18	$63.15	+$29.97	46% 38388-45341 (83729)
└ Down leg	Downavg 2.8¢	$14.35	—	-$14.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.8¢	$18.82	$63.15	+$44.32
LI Little-bigCTR	Downavg 55.5¢	$106.63	—	-$106.63	35% 18964-35964 (54928)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 42.7¢	$74.51	$91.32	+$16.82	57% 12653-9717 (22370)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.7¢	$38.39	—	-$38.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.5¢	$36.12	$91.32	+$55.21
BoneOhio	Upavg 94¢	$97.54	$103.73	+$6.19	74% 102820-36477 (139297)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 54.7¢	$54.55	$91.58	+$37.03	62% 43999-27015 (71014)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 72.9¢	$119.98	$101.94	-$18.04	66% 126492-65134 (191626)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.9¢	$74.31	$101.94	+$27.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.2¢	$45.67	—	-$45.67
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 90.5¢	$82.11	$61.34	-$20.78	52% 90849-85392 (176241)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 38.5¢	$43.1	—	-$43.1	58% 60798-44388 (105186)
AA aaa221	Upavg 60.8¢	$137.59	$51.49	-$19.25	64% 24117-13303 (37420)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 67.7¢	$59.56	$65.86	+$6.3	55% 24044-19423 (43467)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 89.9¢	$35.43	$35.5	+$0.07	56% 58367-45027 (103394)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Downavg 53.6¢	$44.94	—	-$44.94	65% 4152-2267 (6419)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 82.7¢	$26.15	—	-$26.15	55% 18070-14671 (32741)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 48¢	$14.4	$29.99	+$15.6	58% 51165-37295 (88460)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 27¢	$4.82	$17.85	+$13.03	66% 112351-59029 (171380)

machinelearned

Invested

$528.44

Value

$649.83

PnL

+$121.39

Record

55%

8806-7268 (16074)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$455.21

Value

$452.67

PnL

-$2.54

Record

50%

5445-5505 (10950)

Both legs:

Up$216.3647.8¢+$236.31

Down$238.8543.1¢-$238.85

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$464.78

Value

$481.59

PnL

+$16.81

Record

54%

8190-6886 (15076)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$383.5

Value

$451.65

PnL

+$68.15

Record

55%

15683-13056 (28739)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$413.97

Value

—

PnL

-$413.97

Record

57%

71256-54324 (125580)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$322.29

Value

$381.29

PnL

+$59

Record

60%

12418-8236 (20654)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$260.29

Value

$306.14

PnL

+$45.85

Record

59%

23335-16402 (39737)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$357

Value

$295.43

PnL

-$61.57

Record

55%

7631-6246 (13877)

Both legs:

Up$235.279.6¢+$60.23

Down$121.837.1¢-$121.8

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$161.76

Value

$193.51

PnL

+$31.75

Record

56%

13935-11051 (24986)

Both legs:

Down$75.334.2¢-$75.3

Up$86.4644.7¢+$107.05

Bonereaper

Invested

$129.47

Value

$173.02

PnL

+$43.56

Record

66%

99369-51530 (150899)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$33.18

Value

$63.15

PnL

+$29.97

Record

46%

38388-45341 (83729)

Both legs:

Down$14.352.8¢-$14.35

Up$18.8229.8¢+$44.32

Little-bigCTR

Down

Invested

$106.63

Value

—

PnL

-$106.63

Record

35%

18964-35964 (54928)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$74.51

Value

$91.32

PnL

+$16.82

Record

57%

12653-9717 (22370)

Both legs:

Down$38.3942.7¢-$38.39

Up$36.1239.5¢+$55.21

BoneOhio

Invested

$97.54

Value

$103.73

PnL

+$6.19

Record

74%

102820-36477 (139297)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$54.55

Value

$91.58

PnL

+$37.03

Record

62%

43999-27015 (71014)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$119.98

Value

$101.94

PnL

-$18.04

Record

66%

126492-65134 (191626)

Both legs:

Up$74.3172.9¢+$27.63

Down$45.6781.2¢-$45.67

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$82.11

Value

$61.34

PnL

-$20.78

Record

52%

90849-85392 (176241)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$43.1

Value

—

PnL

-$43.1

Record

58%

60798-44388 (105186)

aaa221

Invested

$137.59

Value

$51.49

PnL

-$19.25

Record

64%

24117-13303 (37420)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$59.56

Value

$65.86

PnL

+$6.3

Record

55%

24044-19423 (43467)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$35.43

Value

$35.5

PnL

+$0.07

Record

56%

58367-45027 (103394)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$44.94

Value

—

PnL

-$44.94

Record

65%

4152-2267 (6419)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.15

Value

—

PnL

-$26.15

Record

55%

18070-14671 (32741)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$14.4

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$15.6

Record

58%

51165-37295 (88460)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$4.82

Value

$17.85

PnL

+$13.03

Record

66%

112351-59029 (171380)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 22 top traders (73%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xcc4f959b...597a59

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793466900

Traders in this Market

machinelearned

Up — $649.83

+$121.39

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$2.54

sfkjbsr457

Up — $481.59

+$16.81

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $451.65

+$68.15

uninformedfloww

CTR

Down — $0

-$413.97

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $381.29

+$59

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Up — $306.14

+$45.85

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Up — $173.02

+$43.56

Trade on Polymarket