Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 65%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$116.27

Smart Money Signal

12 of 18 top traders (67%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$977.33

Total Shares977

Combined PnL+$240.78

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares478

Combined PnL-$124.51

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 61.1¢	$1.2K	$776.65	-$417.18	57% 71318-54356 (125674)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.1¢	$653.93	—	-$653.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.5¢	$539.9	$776.65	+$236.75
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 55¢	$678.78	$682.7	+$3.92	55% 15691-13067 (28758)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55¢	$375.2	$682.7	+$307.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.4¢	$303.58	—	-$303.58
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 44.1¢	$410.42	$484.33	+$73.9	50% 5459-5511 (10970)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.9¢	$196.6	—	-$196.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.1¢	$213.82	$484.33	+$270.5
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 73.2¢	$562.74	$609.44	+$48.4	60% 12433-8243 (20676)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.2¢	$445.85	$609.44	+$161.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.8¢	$113.23	—	-$113.23
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 54.8¢	$361.83	$486.42	+$124.59	66% 99378-51538 (150916)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.8¢	$266.41	$486.42	+$220.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.3¢	$95.42	—	-$95.42
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 78.8¢	$329.58	$242.59	-$87	55% 7645-6254 (13899)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.3¢	$138.43	—	-$138.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.8¢	$191.16	$242.59	+$51.43
machinelearned	Upavg 49.2¢	$267.83	$461.93	+$194.11	55% 8816-7280 (16096)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$264.41	$273.97	+$9.56	59% 23335-16402 (39737)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.6¢	$185.16	$273.97	+$88.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.1¢	$79.24	—	-$79.24
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 42.9¢	$221.46	$136.75	-$84.71	56% 13945-11059 (25004)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.9¢	$122.2	—	-$122.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.6¢	$99.25	$136.75	+$37.5
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 57.3¢	$418.55	$154.71	-$7.64	54% 8204-6894 (15098)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.3¢	$88.68	$154.71	+$47.26
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.6¢	$66.06	—	-$54.9
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 33.7¢	$79.9	—	-$79.9	55% 18106-14696 (32802)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 68.1¢	$143.14	$172.87	+$29.72	57% 12658-9728 (22386)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.1¢	$117.77	$172.87	+$55.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.8¢	$25.38	—	-$25.38
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 53.9¢	$76.38	$90.82	+$14.44	46% 38408-45370 (83778)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.9¢	$48.95	$90.82	+$41.87
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.6¢	$27.43	—	-$27.43
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Downavg 8.4¢	$12.12	—	-$12.12	76% 9504-2927 (12431)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 48.3¢	$51.58	$78.95	+$27.37	59% 6948-4880 (11828)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 76.5¢	$79.26	$70.33	-$8.93	52% 90876-85429 (176305)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 79.8¢	$68.59	$79.99	+$11.4	55% 24051-19433 (43484)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 48¢	$47.83	$53.04	+$5.21	58% 38198-27356 (65554)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 92.6¢	$79.92	$70.95	-$8.97	66% 126538-65157 (191695)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 81.6¢	$62.01	$46.26	-$10.29	64% 24172-13343 (37515)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 12¢	$4.74	—	-$4.74	63% 52223-31187 (83410)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 24.2¢	$9.2	$38	+$28.81	66% 112359-59057 (171416)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 84¢	$28.65	$25.6	-$3.05	62% 44015-27038 (71053)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 66.9¢	$22.09	$27.28	+$5.19	65% 4158-2273 (6431)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Downavg 21.7¢	$5.85	—	-$5.85	57% 12724-9438 (22162)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,193.83

Value

$776.65

PnL

-$417.18

Record

57%

71318-54356 (125674)

Both legs:

Down$653.9361.1¢-$653.93

Up$539.969.5¢+$236.75

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$678.78

Value

$682.7

PnL

+$3.92

Record

55%

15691-13067 (28758)

Both legs:

Up$375.255¢+$307.51

Down$303.5846.4¢-$303.58

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$410.42

Value

$484.33

PnL

+$73.9

Record

50%

5459-5511 (10970)

Both legs:

Down$196.630.9¢-$196.6

Up$213.8244.1¢+$270.5

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$562.74

Value

$609.44

PnL

+$48.4

Record

60%

12433-8243 (20676)

Both legs:

Up$445.8573.2¢+$161.63

Down$113.2335.8¢-$113.23

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$361.83

Value

$486.42

PnL

+$124.59

Record

66%

99378-51538 (150916)

Both legs:

Up$266.4154.8¢+$220.01

Down$95.4238.3¢-$95.42

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$329.58

Value

$242.59

PnL

-$87

Record

55%

7645-6254 (13899)

Both legs:

Down$138.4330.3¢-$138.43

Up$191.1678.8¢+$51.43

machinelearned

Invested

$267.83

Value

$461.93

PnL

+$194.11

Record

55%

8816-7280 (16096)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$264.41

Value

$273.97

PnL

+$9.56

Record

59%

23335-16402 (39737)

Both legs:

Up$185.1667.6¢+$88.8

Down$79.2449.1¢-$79.24

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$221.46

Value

$136.75

PnL

-$84.71

Record

56%

13945-11059 (25004)

Both legs:

Down$122.242.9¢-$122.2

Up$99.2572.6¢+$37.5

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$418.55

Value

$154.71

PnL

-$7.64

Record

54%

8204-6894 (15098)

Both legs:

Up$88.6857.3¢+$47.26

Down$66.0645.6¢-$54.9

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$79.9

Value

—

PnL

-$79.9

Record

55%

18106-14696 (32802)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$143.14

Value

$172.87

PnL

+$29.72

Record

57%

12658-9728 (22386)

Both legs:

Up$117.7768.1¢+$55.1

Down$25.3841.8¢-$25.38

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$76.38

Value

$90.82

PnL

+$14.44

Record

46%

38408-45370 (83778)

Both legs:

Up$48.9553.9¢+$41.87

Down$27.4348.6¢-$27.43

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.12

Value

—

PnL

-$12.12

Record

76%

9504-2927 (12431)

13897651<$100

Invested

$51.58

Value

$78.95

PnL

+$27.37

Record

59%

6948-4880 (11828)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$79.26

Value

$70.33

PnL

-$8.93

Record

52%

90876-85429 (176305)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$68.59

Value

$79.99

PnL

+$11.4

Record

55%

24051-19433 (43484)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$47.83

Value

$53.04

PnL

+$5.21

Record

58%

38198-27356 (65554)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$79.92

Value

$70.95

PnL

-$8.97

Record

66%

126538-65157 (191695)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$62.01

Value

$46.26

PnL

-$10.29

Record

64%

24172-13343 (37515)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.74

Value

—

PnL

-$4.74

Record

63%

52223-31187 (83410)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$9.2

Value

$38

PnL

+$28.81

Record

66%

112359-59057 (171416)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$28.65

Value

$25.6

PnL

-$3.05

Record

62%

44015-27038 (71053)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$22.09

Value

$27.28

PnL

+$5.19

Record

65%

4158-2273 (6431)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.85

Value

—

PnL

-$5.85

Record

57%

12724-9438 (22162)

Smart Money Signal

12 of 18 top traders (67%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe7b204c6...f0a761

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793466300

Traders in this Market

uninformedfloww

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$417.18

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$87

machinelearned

Up — $461.93

+$194.11

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded