Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$425.26

Smart Money Signal

20 of 29 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,138

Combined PnL+$449.21

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares492

Combined PnL-$23.95

Up — 69%Down — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 65.1¢	$669.72	$722.77	+$53.05	50% 5459-5511 (10970)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 86¢	$396.65	$399.22	+$2.58	55% 7645-6254 (13899)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 59.7¢	$226.08	$298.46	+$72.38	56% 14719-11585 (26304)
machinelearned	Upavg 71.9¢	$197.62	$261.39	+$63.77	55% 8816-7280 (16096)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 95.9¢	$231.15	$241	+$9.84	93% 24008-1800 (25808)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 75.1¢	$204.21	$219.47	+$15.26	59% 23335-16402 (39737)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 62.8¢	$135.01	$207.7	+$72.69	57% 12658-9728 (22386)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 79.8¢	$182.54	$180.25	-$2.29	60% 12433-8243 (20676)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 65¢	$81.03	$65.91	-$15.12	66% 99378-51538 (150916)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65¢	$42.86	$65.91	+$23.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 2¢	$38.17	—	-$38.17
pspspsps5	Upavg 55.5¢	$59.79	$105.6	+$45.81	46% 38408-45370 (83778)
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 76.6¢	$78.47	$102.43	+$23.96	55% 24051-19433 (43484)
NIULAI4<$100	Upavg 91.4¢	$95.55	$84.01	-$11.54	76% 9504-2927 (12431)
LI Little-big<$100	Upavg 56¢	$43.02	$76.88	+$33.87	35% 18977-35980 (54957)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 66.4¢	$56.9	$59.21	+$18.9	64% 24172-13343 (37515)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 66.9¢	$33.7	$50.38	+$16.68	55% 18106-14696 (32802)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$18.81	$31.09	+$12.28	66% 126538-65157 (191695)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 67¢	$27.5	$25	-$2.5	62% 44015-27038 (71053)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 48¢	$22	$25	+$3	56% 58383-45054 (103437)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 49¢	$10.54	$21.51	+$10.97	59% 6948-4880 (11828)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 45.5¢	$9.1	$20	+$10.9	58% 51183-37311 (88494)
SF sfkjbsr457CTR	Downavg 18.8¢	$276.96	—	+$35.78	54% 8204-6894 (15098)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 67¢	$6.84	$6.45	-$0.39	65% 4158-2273 (6431)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 6¢	$5.24	—	-$5.24	63% 52223-31187 (83410)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 40.4¢	$21.9	—	-$21.9	57% 71318-54356 (125674)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 18.9¢	$10.25	—	-$10.25	58% 60824-44408 (105232)

ply-pm0

Invested

$669.72

Value

$722.77

PnL

+$53.05

Record

50%

5459-5511 (10970)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$396.65

Value

$399.22

PnL

+$2.58

Record

55%

7645-6254 (13899)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$226.08

Value

$298.46

PnL

+$72.38

Record

56%

14719-11585 (26304)

machinelearned

Invested

$197.62

Value

$261.39

PnL

+$63.77

Record

55%

8816-7280 (16096)

hoodquant

Invested

$231.15

Value

$241

PnL

+$9.84

Record

93%

24008-1800 (25808)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$204.21

Value

$219.47

PnL

+$15.26

Record

59%

23335-16402 (39737)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$135.01

Value

$207.7

PnL

+$72.69

Record

57%

12658-9728 (22386)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$182.54

Value

$180.25

PnL

-$2.29

Record

60%

12433-8243 (20676)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$81.03

Value

$65.91

PnL

-$15.12

Record

66%

99378-51538 (150916)

Both legs:

Up$42.8665¢+$23.05

Down$38.172¢-$38.17

pspspsps5

Invested

$59.79

Value

$105.6

PnL

+$45.81

Record

46%

38408-45370 (83778)

sir-upalot

Invested

$78.47

Value

$102.43

PnL

+$23.96

Record

55%

24051-19433 (43484)

NIULAI4<$100

Invested

$95.55

Value

$84.01

PnL

-$11.54

Record

76%

9504-2927 (12431)

Little-big<$100

Invested

$43.02

Value

$76.88

PnL

+$33.87

Record

35%

18977-35980 (54957)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$56.9

Value

$59.21

PnL

+$18.9

Record

64%

24172-13343 (37515)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$33.7

Value

$50.38

PnL

+$16.68

Record

55%

18106-14696 (32802)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$18.81

Value

$31.09

PnL

+$12.28

Record

66%

126538-65157 (191695)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$27.5

Value

$25

PnL

-$2.5

Record

62%

44015-27038 (71053)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$22

Value

$25

PnL

+$3

Record

56%

58383-45054 (103437)

13897651<$100

Invested

$10.54

Value

$21.51

PnL

+$10.97

Record

59%

6948-4880 (11828)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$9.1

Value

$20

PnL

+$10.9

Record

58%

51183-37311 (88494)

sfkjbsr457CTR

Down

Invested

$276.96

Value

—

PnL

+$35.78

Record

54%

8204-6894 (15098)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$6.84

Value

$6.45

PnL

-$0.39

Record

65%

4158-2273 (6431)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.24

Value

—

PnL

-$5.24

Record

63%

52223-31187 (83410)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.9

Value

—

PnL

-$21.9

Record

57%

71318-54356 (125674)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.25

Value

—

PnL

-$10.25

Record

58%

60824-44408 (105232)

Smart Money Signal

20 of 29 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x05ba7371...8999bf

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793465100

Traders in this Market

ply-pm0

Up — $722.77

+$53.05

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $399.22

+$2.58

CrouchPredictions

Up — $298.46

+$72.38

machinelearned

Up — $261.39

+$63.77

hoodquant

Up — $241

+$9.84

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Up — $219.47

+$15.26

FairValueMachine

Up — $207.7

+$72.69

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $180.25

-$2.29

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$15.12

pspspsps5

Up — $105.6

+$45.81

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