Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 53%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.5K

Combined PnL

-$354.9

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 19 top traders (58%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,147

Combined PnL+$116.23

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,215

Combined PnL-$471.13

Down — 58%Up — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 57.7¢	$2.7K	$2.3K	-$350.5	50% 5445-5505 (10950)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.7¢	$1.3K	$2.3K	+$985.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.1¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$77.99	74% 102820-36477 (139297)
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 64.5¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$121.92	77% 9504-2918 (12422)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.5¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$604.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 36¢	$726.27	—	-$726.27
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 72.7¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$274.57	56% 14697-11576 (26273)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.7¢	$900.01	$1.2K	+$338.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.3¢	$613.28	—	-$613.28
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 50.3¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$271.22	55% 15683-13056 (28739)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$761.88	$1.5K	+$752.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.2¢	$481.27	—	-$481.27
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.41	59% 62489-43624 (106113)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 44.7¢	$967.56	$688.9	-$278.66	55% 7631-6246 (13877)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.7¢	$539.16	—	-$539.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.2¢	$428.4	$688.9	+$260.5
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 43.5¢	$752.55	$898.13	+$145.59	56% 13935-11051 (24986)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.6¢	$364.7	$898.13	+$533.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.5¢	$387.84	—	-$387.84
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 65.2¢	$917.27	$1.1K	+$173.86	60% 12418-8236 (20654)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.2¢	$708.48	$1.1K	+$379.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.6¢	$205.54	—	-$205.54
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 36.1¢	$386.02	$431.72	+$45.7	57% 12653-9717 (22370)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.8¢	$189.09	$431.72	+$242.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.1¢	$196.93	—	-$196.93
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 53.5¢	$318.38	$500.6	+$182.22	66% 99369-51530 (150899)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 66.3¢	$350.29	$266.71	-$83.57	55% 8806-7268 (16074)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.3¢	$176.72	$266.71	+$89.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.3¢	$173.56	—	-$173.56
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 58.7¢	$117.76	—	-$117.76	46% 38388-45341 (83729)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$49.04	—	-$49.04	66% 112351-59029 (171380)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR	Upavg 70¢	$104.99	—	-$104.99	56% 58367-45027 (103394)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 56.8¢	$98.15	$107.83	+$9.68	59% 22574-15937 (38511)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 59.7¢	$129.73	$60	-$69.74	55% 24044-19423 (43467)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.7¢	$93.73	—	-$93.73
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$36	$60	+$24
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 26.7¢	$140.19	—	-$140.19	57% 71256-54324 (125580)
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100	Upavg 25.3¢	$40.97	$63.87	+$22.9	63% 52202-31146 (83348)
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.3¢	$27.82	—	-$27.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.6¢	$13.15	$63.87	+$50.72
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Upavg 71¢	$142.18	$50.55	-$91.64	62% 43999-27015 (71014)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.6¢	$35.7	$50.55	+$14.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 71¢	$106.49	—	-$106.49
AS asdaefef	Downavg 92.9¢	$103.65	$67.66	-$35.99	66% 126492-65134 (191626)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$88.11	$89	+$0.89	93% 23988-1799 (25787)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 73.5¢	$53.39	$59.99	+$9.96	64% 24117-13303 (37420)
SH Sharky6999<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$42.2	$42.24	+$0.04	98% 6876-166 (7042)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 85.5¢	$42.21	$38.15	-$4.06	65% 4152-2267 (6419)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,681.66

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$350.5

Record

50%

5445-5505 (10950)

Both legs:

Down$1,345.7757.7¢+$985.39

Up$1,335.8951.1¢$-1.3K

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$3,077.99

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$77.99

Record

74%

102820-36477 (139297)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,825.98

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$121.92

Record

77%

9504-2918 (12422)

Both legs:

Down$1,099.764.5¢+$604.35

Up$726.2736¢-$726.27

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,513.29

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$274.57

Record

56%

14697-11576 (26273)

Both legs:

Down$900.0172.7¢+$338.71

Up$613.2842.3¢-$613.28

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,243.16

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$271.22

Record

55%

15683-13056 (28739)

Both legs:

Down$761.8850.3¢+$752.5

Up$481.2747.2¢-$481.27

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$1,228.77

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.41

Record

59%

62489-43624 (106113)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$967.56

Value

$688.9

PnL

-$278.66

Record

55%

7631-6246 (13877)

Both legs:

Up$539.1644.7¢-$539.16

Down$428.462.2¢+$260.5

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$752.55

Value

$898.13

PnL

+$145.59

Record

56%

13935-11051 (24986)

Both legs:

Down$364.740.6¢+$533.43

Up$387.8443.5¢-$387.84

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$917.27

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$173.86

Record

60%

12418-8236 (20654)

Both legs:

Down$708.4865.2¢+$379.4

Up$205.5442.6¢-$205.54

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$386.02

Value

$431.72

PnL

+$45.7

Record

57%

12653-9717 (22370)

Both legs:

Down$189.0943.8¢+$242.63

Up$196.9336.1¢-$196.93

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$318.38

Value

$500.6

PnL

+$182.22

Record

66%

99369-51530 (150899)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$350.29

Value

$266.71

PnL

-$83.57

Record

55%

8806-7268 (16074)

Both legs:

Down$176.7266.3¢+$89.99

Up$173.5645.3¢-$173.56

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$117.76

Value

—

PnL

-$117.76

Record

46%

38388-45341 (83729)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$49.04

Value

—

PnL

-$49.04

Record

66%

112351-59029 (171380)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR

Invested

$104.99

Value

—

PnL

-$104.99

Record

56%

58367-45027 (103394)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$98.15

Value

$107.83

PnL

+$9.68

Record

59%

22574-15937 (38511)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$129.73

Value

$60

PnL

-$69.74

Record

55%

24044-19423 (43467)

Both legs:

Up$93.7359.7¢-$93.73

Down$3660¢+$24

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$140.19

Value

—

PnL

-$140.19

Record

57%

71256-54324 (125580)

UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100

Invested

$40.97

Value

$63.87

PnL

+$22.9

Record

63%

52202-31146 (83348)

Both legs:

Up$27.8225.3¢-$27.82

Down$13.1520.6¢+$50.72

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Invested

$142.18

Value

$50.55

PnL

-$91.64

Record

62%

43999-27015 (71014)

Both legs:

Down$35.770.6¢+$14.85

Up$106.4971¢-$106.49

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$103.65

Value

$67.66

PnL

-$35.99

Record

66%

126492-65134 (191626)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$88.11

Value

$89

PnL

+$0.89

Record

93%

23988-1799 (25787)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$53.39

Value

$59.99

PnL

+$9.96

Record

64%

24117-13303 (37420)

Sharky6999<$100

Down

Invested

$42.2

Value

$42.24

PnL

+$0.04

Record

98%

6876-166 (7042)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$42.21

Value

$38.15

PnL

-$4.06

Record

65%

4152-2267 (6419)

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 19 top traders (58%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x08f166ac...3fd80f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793463300

Traders in this Market

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$350.5

BoneOhio

Down — $3.0K

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$271.22

0x50f7

Down — $1.2K

+$12.41

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded