Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET

Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$308.48

Smart Money Signal

19 of 27 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares5,461

Combined PnL+$786.05

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,110

Combined PnL-$477.57

Up — 70%Down — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 52.5¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$308.91	55% 15670-13048 (28718)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 76.2¢	$904.98	$894.81	-$10.16	56% 14686-11561 (26247)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 71.6¢	$714.64	$701.27	-$13.38	50% 5432-5497 (10929)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 48.7¢	$420.16	$608.59	+$188.43	56% 13926-11039 (24965)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 66.5¢	$354.04	$472.3	+$118.26	66% 99355-51517 (150872)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 65.1¢	$289.19	$374.39	+$85.2	55% 7618-6237 (13855)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 74.3¢	$303.07	$234.05	-$66.02	60% 12403-8229 (20632)
machinelearned	Upavg 67.1¢	$165.17	$216.36	+$51.18	55% 8802-7251 (16053)
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 54.8¢	$151.43	$158.07	+$6.64	59% 22517-15896 (38413)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 58.9¢	$173.29	—	-$173.29	58% 38145-27331 (65476)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 36¢	$80.63	—	-$80.63	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 36.8¢	$89.33	—	-$89.33	46% 38360-45313 (83673)
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 94¢	$48.18	$38	-$10.18	77% 9497-2916 (12413)
└ Down leg	Downavg 3.3¢	$12.46	—	-$12.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 94¢	$35.72	$38	+$2.28
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Downavg 41.1¢	$84.04	—	-$84.04	57% 12641-9708 (22349)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 57.7¢	$48.59	$79	+$30.41	55% 24032-19415 (43447)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 36¢	$30	—	-$30	66% 112343-59004 (171347)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 94¢	$38.64	$41.11	+$2.47	62% 43985-26997 (70982)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 92.9¢	$37.62	$40.48	+$2.86	66% 126437-65111 (191548)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$32.41	$64.69	+$32.28	59% 6923-4865 (11788)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 93¢	$37.13	$29.44	-$7.69	58% 60787-44362 (105149)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 74.4¢	$19.6	$25	+$5.4	55% 45436-37823 (83259)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 40.6¢	$16.4	$40.37	+$23.97	56% 58346-45004 (103350)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 51.4¢	$18.51	$36	+$17.49	56% 8126-6271 (14397)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 4.7¢	$4.31	—	-$4.31	63% 52187-31091 (83278)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 94¢	$9.4	$10	+$0.6	52% 90814-85344 (176158)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,111.32

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$308.91

Record

55%

15670-13048 (28718)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$904.98

Value

$894.81

PnL

-$10.16

Record

56%

14686-11561 (26247)

ply-pm0

Invested

$714.64

Value

$701.27

PnL

-$13.38

Record

50%

5432-5497 (10929)

GoodFallen

Invested

$420.16

Value

$608.59

PnL

+$188.43

Record

56%

13926-11039 (24965)

Bonereaper

Invested

$354.04

Value

$472.3

PnL

+$118.26

Record

66%

99355-51517 (150872)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$289.19

Value

$374.39

PnL

+$85.2

Record

55%

7618-6237 (13855)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$303.07

Value

$234.05

PnL

-$66.02

Record

60%

12403-8229 (20632)

machinelearned

Invested

$165.17

Value

$216.36

PnL

+$51.18

Record

55%

8802-7251 (16053)

rabadabadoo

Invested

$151.43

Value

$158.07

PnL

+$6.64

Record

59%

22517-15896 (38413)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$173.29

Value

—

PnL

-$173.29

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$80.63

Value

—

PnL

-$80.63

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$89.33

Value

—

PnL

-$89.33

Record

46%

38360-45313 (83673)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$48.18

Value

$38

PnL

-$10.18

Record

77%

9497-2916 (12413)

Both legs:

Down$12.463.3¢-$12.46

Up$35.7294¢+$2.28

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$84.04

Value

—

PnL

-$84.04

Record

57%

12641-9708 (22349)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$48.59

Value

$79

PnL

+$30.41

Record

55%

24032-19415 (43447)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$30

Value

—

PnL

-$30

Record

66%

112343-59004 (171347)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$38.64

Value

$41.11

PnL

+$2.47

Record

62%

43985-26997 (70982)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$37.62

Value

$40.48

PnL

+$2.86

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

13897651<$100

Invested

$32.41

Value

$64.69

PnL

+$32.28

Record

59%

6923-4865 (11788)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$37.13

Value

$29.44

PnL

-$7.69

Record

58%

60787-44362 (105149)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$19.6

Value

$25

PnL

+$5.4

Record

55%

45436-37823 (83259)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$16.4

Value

$40.37

PnL

+$23.97

Record

56%

58346-45004 (103350)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$18.51

Value

$36

PnL

+$17.49

Record

56%

8126-6271 (14397)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.31

Value

—

PnL

-$4.31

Record

63%

52187-31091 (83278)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.6

Record

52%

90814-85344 (176158)

Smart Money Signal

19 of 27 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb3641516...d2ffea

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793462700

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.4K

+$308.91

CrouchPredictions

Up — $894.81

-$10.16

ply-pm0

Up — $701.27

-$13.38

GoodFallen

Up — $608.59

+$188.43

Bonereaper

Up — $472.3

+$118.26

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $374.39

+$85.2

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $234.05

-$66.02

machinelearned

Up — $216.36

+$51.18

rabadabadoo

Up — $158.07

+$6.64

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$173.29

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