Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

$361.73

Smart Money Signal

16 of 25 top traders (64%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares5,814

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,670

Combined PnL-$911.05

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 64.2¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$61.86	50% 5432-5497 (10929)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$196.64	55% 15670-13048 (28718)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.4¢	$719.52	$1.3K	+$557.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.5¢	$753.96	—	-$753.96
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 72.3¢	$996.62	$1.0K	+$7.56	56% 14686-11561 (26247)
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR	Downavg 29.8¢	$589.53	—	-$589.53	51% 881-856 (1737)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 63.6¢	$945.17	$972.65	+$27.47	55% 7618-6237 (13855)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.6¢	$618.9	$972.65	+$353.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.6¢	$326.27	—	-$326.27
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 60.1¢	$894.69	$818.77	-$75.92	60% 12403-8229 (20632)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.1¢	$491.82	$818.77	+$326.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.2¢	$402.87	—	-$402.87
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 39.8¢	$555.17	$801	+$245.83	77% 9497-2916 (12413)
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.7¢	$254.08	$801	+$546.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.8¢	$301.09	—	-$301.09
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 54.3¢	$794.73	$754.32	-$40.41	56% 13926-11039 (24965)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.3¢	$409.23	$754.32	+$345.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.2¢	$385.5	—	-$385.5
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 60.2¢	$547.9	$572.06	+$24.16	54% 8178-6875 (15053)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.2¢	$344.15	$572.06	+$227.91
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.9¢	$203.76	—	-$203.76
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 53.2¢	$514.27	$965.94	+$451.67	58% 38145-27331 (65476)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 62¢	$573.95	$480.84	-$93.11	57% 12641-9708 (22349)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62¢	$298.35	$480.84	+$182.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.9¢	$275.6	—	-$275.6
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 62.4¢	$414.32	$449.29	+$34.97	55% 8802-7251 (16053)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.4¢	$280.19	$449.29	+$169.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.6¢	$134.13	—	-$134.13
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 60.9¢	$402.59	$661.19	+$258.6	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 58.1¢	$312.28	$445.22	+$132.94	66% 99355-51517 (150872)
pspspsps5	Upavg 55.6¢	$190.88	$320.78	+$129.9	46% 38360-45313 (83673)
AtomforgeCTR	Downavg 47.3¢	$157.12	—	-$157.12	65% 4143-2256 (6399)
SE seeeeeeb	Upavg 64¢	$86.4	$135	+$48.6	51% 751-709 (1460)
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 60¢	$91.55	$142.38	+$50.82	55% 24032-19415 (43447)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 63.5¢	$98.74	$117	+$18.26	66% 126437-65111 (191548)
BoneOhio	Upavg 69.4¢	$105.96	$152.7	+$46.74	74% 102799-36473 (139272)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 11.6¢	$22.01	—	-$22.01	63% 52187-31091 (83278)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 49.3¢	$52.1	$57	+$4.9	56% 8126-6271 (14397)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.3¢	$28.1	$57	+$28.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$24	—	-$24
LI Little-bigARB<$100	Upavg 55¢	$53	$50	-$3	35% 18950-35949 (54899)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55¢	$27.5	$50	+$22.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.3¢	$25.5	—	-$25.5
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$47.29	—	-$47.29	50% 7900-7930 (15830)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 70.6¢	$50.69	$71.77	+$21.08	52% 90814-85344 (176158)

ply-pm0

Invested

$1,604.47

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$61.86

Record

50%

5432-5497 (10929)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,473.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$196.64

Record

55%

15670-13048 (28718)

Both legs:

Up$719.5256.4¢+$557.32

Down$753.9651.5¢-$753.96

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$996.62

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$7.56

Record

56%

14686-11561 (26247)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR

Down

Invested

$589.53

Value

—

PnL

-$589.53

Record

51%

881-856 (1737)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$945.17

Value

$972.65

PnL

+$27.47

Record

55%

7618-6237 (13855)

Both legs:

Up$618.963.6¢+$353.75

Down$326.2744.6¢-$326.27

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$894.69

Value

$818.77

PnL

-$75.92

Record

60%

12403-8229 (20632)

Both legs:

Up$491.8260.1¢+$326.95

Down$402.8744.2¢-$402.87

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$555.17

Value

$801

PnL

+$245.83

Record

77%

9497-2916 (12413)

Both legs:

Up$254.0831.7¢+$546.92

Down$301.0939.8¢-$301.09

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$794.73

Value

$754.32

PnL

-$40.41

Record

56%

13926-11039 (24965)

Both legs:

Up$409.2354.3¢+$345.09

Down$385.548.2¢-$385.5

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$547.9

Value

$572.06

PnL

+$24.16

Record

54%

8178-6875 (15053)

Both legs:

Up$344.1560.2¢+$227.91

Down$203.7638.9¢-$203.76

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$514.27

Value

$965.94

PnL

+$451.67

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$573.95

Value

$480.84

PnL

-$93.11

Record

57%

12641-9708 (22349)

Both legs:

Up$298.3562¢+$182.49

Down$275.652.9¢-$275.6

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$414.32

Value

$449.29

PnL

+$34.97

Record

55%

8802-7251 (16053)

Both legs:

Up$280.1962.4¢+$169.1

Down$134.1342.6¢-$134.13

uninformedfloww

Invested

$402.59

Value

$661.19

PnL

+$258.6

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

Bonereaper

Invested

$312.28

Value

$445.22

PnL

+$132.94

Record

66%

99355-51517 (150872)

pspspsps5

Invested

$190.88

Value

$320.78

PnL

+$129.9

Record

46%

38360-45313 (83673)

AtomforgeCTR

Down

Invested

$157.12

Value

—

PnL

-$157.12

Record

65%

4143-2256 (6399)

seeeeeeb

Invested

$86.4

Value

$135

PnL

+$48.6

Record

51%

751-709 (1460)

sir-upalot

Invested

$91.55

Value

$142.38

PnL

+$50.82

Record

55%

24032-19415 (43447)

asdaefef

Invested

$98.74

Value

$117

PnL

+$18.26

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

BoneOhio

Invested

$105.96

Value

$152.7

PnL

+$46.74

Record

74%

102799-36473 (139272)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.01

Value

—

PnL

-$22.01

Record

63%

52187-31091 (83278)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$52.1

Value

$57

PnL

+$4.9

Record

56%

8126-6271 (14397)

Both legs:

Up$28.149.3¢+$28.9

Down$2450¢-$24

Little-bigARB<$100

Invested

$53

Value

$50

PnL

-$3

Record

35%

18950-35949 (54899)

Both legs:

Invested

$47.29

Value

—

PnL

-$47.29

Record

50%

7900-7930 (15830)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$50.69

Value

$71.77

PnL

+$21.08

Record

52%

90814-85344 (176158)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 25 top traders (64%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3fc7b5af...95ba05

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793462100

Traders in this Market

ply-pm0

Up — $1.7K

+$61.86

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$196.64

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.0K

+$7.56

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

CTR

Down — $0

-$589.53

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$27.47

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $965.94

+$451.67

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