Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET

Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 86%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$521.18

Smart Money Signal

25 of 30 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up25 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares4,841

Combined PnL+$635

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares564

Combined PnL-$113.83

Up — 83%Down — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 76.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$26.93	56% 14686-11561 (26247)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 68.4¢	$716.97	$684.77	-$32.21	50% 5432-5497 (10929)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 68.4¢	$600.67	$658.33	+$57.66	55% 15670-13048 (28718)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 65.4¢	$276.92	$376.35	+$99.44	56% 13926-11039 (24965)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 68.1¢	$237.3	$280.13	+$42.83	60% 12403-8229 (20632)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.1¢	$190.75	$280.13	+$89.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 14.1¢	$46.54	—	-$46.54
machinelearned	Upavg 61.1¢	$232.8	$266.25	+$33.45	55% 8802-7251 (16053)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 76.3¢	$134.25	$175.92	+$41.67	62% 43985-26997 (70982)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 71.1¢	$139.42	$163.12	+$23.7	55% 7618-6237 (13855)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 57.3¢	$117.45	$156.83	+$39.38	66% 99355-51517 (150872)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 36.3¢	$90.06	$187.96	+$97.9	56% 8126-6271 (14397)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 70.3¢	$104.64	$124.53	+$19.89	57% 12641-9708 (22349)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 68.3¢	$355.89	$110.76	+$31.74	54% 8178-6875 (15053)
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 72.3¢	$96.58	$119.83	+$23.25	55% 24032-19415 (43447)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 64.1¢	$91.5	$81.35	-$10.15	46% 38360-45313 (83673)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.1¢	$52.18	$81.35	+$29.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.5¢	$39.32	—	-$39.32
AA aaa221	Upavg 71.9¢	$137.27	$105.46	+$16.59	64% 24039-13275 (37314)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 46¢	$84.32	$183.31	+$98.99	58% 38145-27331 (65476)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 63.5¢	$54.55	$85.92	+$31.37	55% 18044-14641 (32685)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 66¢	$55.39	$82.22	+$26.83	65% 4143-2256 (6399)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 3.3¢	$11.5	—	-$11.5	63% 52187-31091 (83278)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 60.7¢	$49.55	—	-$49.55	59% 6923-4865 (11788)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 64.4¢	$33	$51.27	+$18.27	56% 58346-45004 (103350)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 94¢	$41.36	$44	+$2.64	52% 90814-85344 (176158)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 88.2¢	$37.35	$42.36	+$5.01	66% 126437-65111 (191548)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 31.9¢	$40.95	—	-$40.95	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 49¢	$12.5	$25.51	+$13.01	58% 60787-44362 (105149)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,182.46

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$26.93

Record

56%

14686-11561 (26247)

ply-pm0

Invested

$716.97

Value

$684.77

PnL

-$32.21

Record

50%

5432-5497 (10929)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$600.67

Value

$658.33

PnL

+$57.66

Record

55%

15670-13048 (28718)

GoodFallen

Invested

$276.92

Value

$376.35

PnL

+$99.44

Record

56%

13926-11039 (24965)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$237.3

Value

$280.13

PnL

+$42.83

Record

60%

12403-8229 (20632)

Both legs:

Up$190.7568.1¢+$89.37

Down$46.5414.1¢-$46.54

machinelearned

Invested

$232.8

Value

$266.25

PnL

+$33.45

Record

55%

8802-7251 (16053)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$134.25

Value

$175.92

PnL

+$41.67

Record

62%

43985-26997 (70982)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$139.42

Value

$163.12

PnL

+$23.7

Record

55%

7618-6237 (13855)

Bonereaper

Invested

$117.45

Value

$156.83

PnL

+$39.38

Record

66%

99355-51517 (150872)

wzbbb

Invested

$90.06

Value

$187.96

PnL

+$97.9

Record

56%

8126-6271 (14397)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$104.64

Value

$124.53

PnL

+$19.89

Record

57%

12641-9708 (22349)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$355.89

Value

$110.76

PnL

+$31.74

Record

54%

8178-6875 (15053)

sir-upalot

Invested

$96.58

Value

$119.83

PnL

+$23.25

Record

55%

24032-19415 (43447)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$91.5

Value

$81.35

PnL

-$10.15

Record

46%

38360-45313 (83673)

Both legs:

Up$52.1864.1¢+$29.17

Down$39.3223.5¢-$39.32

aaa221

Invested

$137.27

Value

$105.46

PnL

+$16.59

Record

64%

24039-13275 (37314)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$84.32

Value

$183.31

PnL

+$98.99

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$54.55

Value

$85.92

PnL

+$31.37

Record

55%

18044-14641 (32685)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$55.39

Value

$82.22

PnL

+$26.83

Record

65%

4143-2256 (6399)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.5

Value

—

PnL

-$11.5

Record

63%

52187-31091 (83278)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$49.55

Value

—

PnL

-$49.55

Record

59%

6923-4865 (11788)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$33

Value

$51.27

PnL

+$18.27

Record

56%

58346-45004 (103350)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$41.36

Value

$44

PnL

+$2.64

Record

52%

90814-85344 (176158)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$37.35

Value

$42.36

PnL

+$5.01

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.95

Value

—

PnL

-$40.95

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$12.5

Value

$25.51

PnL

+$13.01

Record

58%

60787-44362 (105149)

Smart Money Signal

25 of 30 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xec28cad2...cf8c6d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793461800

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.2K

-$26.93

ply-pm0

Up — $684.77

-$32.21

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $658.33

+$57.66

GoodFallen

Up — $376.35

+$99.44

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$42.83

machinelearned

Up — $266.25

+$33.45

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $175.92

+$41.67

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $163.12

+$23.7

Bonereaper

Up — $156.83

+$39.38

wzbbb

Up — $187.96

+$97.9

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