Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Signal

20 of 31 top traders (65%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares4,859

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Up20 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,747

Combined PnL$-4.4K

Down — 35%Up — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 40.4¢	$2.0K	$2.7K	+$662.37	50% 5432-5497 (10929)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 49.1¢	$1.8K	—	$-1.8K	56% 14686-11561 (26247)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 46.1¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	55% 15670-13048 (28718)
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$1.1K	$962	-$171.12	77% 9497-2916 (12413)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.9¢	$657	—	-$657
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.5¢	$476.12	$962	+$485.88
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 57.8¢	$677.38	$516.92	-$158.7	55% 7618-6237 (13855)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.8¢	$383.82	—	-$384.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.2¢	$290.67	$516.92	+$226.25
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 52.2¢	$591.13	$515.02	-$76.11	56% 13926-11039 (24965)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.2¢	$342.92	—	-$342.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.2¢	$248.2	$515.02	+$266.81
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 64.1¢	$633.97	$583.48	-$50.49	60% 12403-8229 (20632)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.4¢	$259.98	—	-$259.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.1¢	$373.99	$583.48	+$209.49
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 65.5¢	$430.78	$657.86	+$227.08	58% 38145-27331 (65476)
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 37.8¢	$162.71	—	-$162.71	46% 38360-45313 (83673)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 44¢	$202.97	—	-$202.97	57% 12641-9708 (22349)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 54.6¢	$195.4	—	-$195.4	55% 8802-7251 (16053)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 53.8¢	$333.98	$528.05	+$194.07	66% 99355-51517 (150872)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.8¢	$283.86	$528.05	+$244.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.3¢	$50.12	—	-$50.12
LaMecheMoon	Downavg 25.4¢	$200	$787.62	+$587.62	48% 32-35 (67)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 46.9¢	$143.26	—	-$143.26	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 48.5¢	$166.42	$162.3	+$158.18	59% 22517-15896 (38413)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 47.4¢	$417.5	$142.49	+$164.09	54% 8178-6875 (15053)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 6.1¢	$17.73	—	-$17.73	63% 52187-31091 (83278)
SI sir-upalotCTR	Upavg 66¢	$123.69	—	-$123.69	55% 24032-19415 (43447)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR	Upavg 74.4¢	$129	—	-$129	62% 43985-26997 (70982)
BoneOhioCTR	Upavg 86¢	$115.86	—	-$115.86	74% 102799-36473 (139272)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Upavg 64.6¢	$72.22	—	-$72.22	65% 4143-2256 (6399)
FL FluffyMD2026CTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$50	—	-$50	—
ohioism	Downavg 65¢	$97.5	$150	+$52.5	64% 40342-23071 (63413)
AA aaa221CTR	Upavg 63¢	$158.46	—	-$53.16	64% 24039-13275 (37314)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 99¢	$86.67	$53	-$33.67	66% 126437-65111 (191548)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$2,017.31

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$662.37

Record

50%

5432-5497 (10929)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$1,781.58

Value

—

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

56%

14686-11561 (26247)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$1,221.59

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

55%

15670-13048 (28718)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$1,133.12

Value

$962

PnL

-$171.12

Record

77%

9497-2916 (12413)

Both legs:

Up$65751.9¢-$657

Down$476.1249.5¢+$485.88

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$677.38

Value

$516.92

PnL

-$158.7

Record

55%

7618-6237 (13855)

Both legs:

Up$383.8257.8¢-$384.96

Down$290.6756.2¢+$226.25

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$591.13

Value

$515.02

PnL

-$76.11

Record

56%

13926-11039 (24965)

Both legs:

Up$342.9252.2¢-$342.92

Down$248.248.2¢+$266.81

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$633.97

Value

$583.48

PnL

-$50.49

Record

60%

12403-8229 (20632)

Both legs:

Up$259.9859.4¢-$259.98

Down$373.9964.1¢+$209.49

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$430.78

Value

$657.86

PnL

+$227.08

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$162.71

Value

—

PnL

-$162.71

Record

46%

38360-45313 (83673)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$202.97

Value

—

PnL

-$202.97

Record

57%

12641-9708 (22349)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$195.4

Value

—

PnL

-$195.4

Record

55%

8802-7251 (16053)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$333.98

Value

$528.05

PnL

+$194.07

Record

66%

99355-51517 (150872)

Both legs:

Down$283.8653.8¢+$244.19

Up$50.1246.3¢-$50.12

LaMecheMoon

Down

Invested

$200

Value

$787.62

PnL

+$587.62

Record

48%

32-35 (67)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$143.26

Value

—

PnL

-$143.26

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$166.42

Value

$162.3

PnL

+$158.18

Record

59%

22517-15896 (38413)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$417.5

Value

$142.49

PnL

+$164.09

Record

54%

8178-6875 (15053)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$17.73

Value

—

PnL

-$17.73

Record

63%

52187-31091 (83278)

sir-upalotCTR

Invested

$123.69

Value

—

PnL

-$123.69

Record

55%

24032-19415 (43447)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR

Invested

$129

Value

—

PnL

-$129

Record

62%

43985-26997 (70982)

BoneOhioCTR

Invested

$115.86

Value

—

PnL

-$115.86

Record

74%

102799-36473 (139272)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Invested

$72.22

Value

—

PnL

-$72.22

Record

65%

4143-2256 (6399)

FluffyMD2026CTR<$100

Invested

$50

Value

—

PnL

-$50

Record

—

ohioism

Down

Invested

$97.5

Value

$150

PnL

+$52.5

Record

64%

40342-23071 (63413)

aaa221CTR

Invested

$158.46

Value

—

PnL

-$53.16

Record

64%

24039-13275 (37314)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$86.67

Value

$53

PnL

-$33.67

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

Smart Money Signal

20 of 31 top traders (65%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xe3897ca0...e035aa

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793461500

Traders in this Market

ply-pm0

Down — $2.7K

+$662.37

CrouchPredictions

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.8K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $0

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$50.49

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $657.86

pspspsps5

Up — $0

FairValueMachine

Up — $0