Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

-$124.17

Smart Money Signal

28 of 35 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up28 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares9,336

Combined PnL+$396.24

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,835

Combined PnL-$520.41

Up — 80%Down — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$3.83	59% 62464-43615 (106079)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 55.8¢	$876.54	$1.2K	+$339.78	55% 15670-13048 (28718)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 73¢	$653.88	$621.96	-$31.92	56% 14686-11561 (26247)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 53.5¢	$382.86	$462.18	+$79.32	50% 5432-5497 (10929)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 49.4¢	$429.65	—	-$429.65	58% 38145-27331 (65476)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 78.1¢	$502.01	$380.9	-$121.12	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 67¢	$401.75	$396.44	-$2.96	55% 7618-6237 (13855)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 67.5¢	$318.64	$316.37	-$2.27	60% 12403-8229 (20632)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 60¢	$302.1	$283.99	-$18.11	56% 13926-11039 (24965)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 72.2¢	$247.59	$250.43	+$2.84	66% 99355-51517 (150872)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 85.5¢	$287	$250.24	-$36.76	62% 43985-26997 (70982)
ohioism	Upavg 60.2¢	$182.94	$215.53	+$32.6	64% 40342-23071 (63413)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 50.6¢	$193.17	$176.96	-$16.21	56% 8126-6271 (14397)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.6¢	$107.36	—	-$107.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.5¢	$85.81	$176.96	+$91.15
FairValueMachine	Upavg 41.8¢	$140.29	$187.11	+$46.81	57% 12641-9708 (22349)
machinelearned	Upavg 72.5¢	$133.04	$177	+$43.96	55% 8802-7251 (16053)
BoneOhio	Upavg 90.7¢	$212.45	$157.05	-$55.4	74% 102799-36473 (139272)
Atomforge	Upavg 88.4¢	$99.03	$112.04	+$13.01	65% 4143-2256 (6399)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 67.7¢	$85.2	$108.06	+$22.86	55% 18044-14641 (32685)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 73¢	$74.99	—	-$74.99	58% 60787-44362 (105149)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 15.1¢	$35.81	—	-$35.81	46% 38360-45313 (83673)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 70.5¢	$73.31	$45.4	-$5.99	64% 24039-13275 (37314)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$44.06	$47.58	+$3.52	59% 6923-4865 (11788)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 62.6¢	$31.9	$50.98	+$19.08	66% 126437-65111 (191548)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 77.7¢	$68.42	$70.87	+$2.44	55% 24032-19415 (43447)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 2.6¢	$12.26	—	-$12.26	63% 52187-31091 (83278)

0x50f7

Invested

$3,824.18

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$3.83

Record

59%

62464-43615 (106079)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$876.54

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$339.78

Record

55%

15670-13048 (28718)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$653.88

Value

$621.96

PnL

-$31.92

Record

56%

14686-11561 (26247)

ply-pm0

Invested

$382.86

Value

$462.18

PnL

+$79.32

Record

50%

5432-5497 (10929)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$429.65

Value

—

PnL

-$429.65

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$502.01

Value

$380.9

PnL

-$121.12

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$401.75

Value

$396.44

PnL

-$2.96

Record

55%

7618-6237 (13855)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$318.64

Value

$316.37

PnL

-$2.27

Record

60%

12403-8229 (20632)

GoodFallen

Invested

$302.1

Value

$283.99

PnL

-$18.11

Record

56%

13926-11039 (24965)

Bonereaper

Invested

$247.59

Value

$250.43

PnL

+$2.84

Record

66%

99355-51517 (150872)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$287

Value

$250.24

PnL

-$36.76

Record

62%

43985-26997 (70982)

ohioism

Invested

$182.94

Value

$215.53

PnL

+$32.6

Record

64%

40342-23071 (63413)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$193.17

Value

$176.96

PnL

-$16.21

Record

56%

8126-6271 (14397)

Both legs:

Down$107.3650.6¢-$107.36

Up$85.8148.5¢+$91.15

FairValueMachine

Invested

$140.29

Value

$187.11

PnL

+$46.81

Record

57%

12641-9708 (22349)

machinelearned

Invested

$133.04

Value

$177

PnL

+$43.96

Record

55%

8802-7251 (16053)

BoneOhio

Invested

$212.45

Value

$157.05

PnL

-$55.4

Record

74%

102799-36473 (139272)

Atomforge

Invested

$99.03

Value

$112.04

PnL

+$13.01

Record

65%

4143-2256 (6399)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$85.2

Value

$108.06

PnL

+$22.86

Record

55%

18044-14641 (32685)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$74.99

Value

—

PnL

-$74.99

Record

58%

60787-44362 (105149)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.81

Value

—

PnL

-$35.81

Record

46%

38360-45313 (83673)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$73.31

Value

$45.4

PnL

-$5.99

Record

64%

24039-13275 (37314)

13897651<$100

Invested

$44.06

Value

$47.58

PnL

+$3.52

Record

59%

6923-4865 (11788)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$31.9

Value

$50.98

PnL

+$19.08

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$68.42

Value

$70.87

PnL

+$2.44

Record

55%

24032-19415 (43447)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.26

Value

—

PnL

-$12.26

Record

63%

52187-31091 (83278)

Smart Money Signal

28 of 35 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x40f585ce...1d6ff6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793461200

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $3.8K

+$3.83

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.2K

+$339.78

CrouchPredictions

Up — $621.96

-$31.92

ply-pm0

Up — $462.18

+$79.32

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$429.65

uninformedfloww

Up — $380.9

-$121.12

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $396.44

-$2.96

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $316.37

-$2.27

GoodFallen

Up — $283.99

-$18.11

Bonereaper

Up — $250.43

+$2.84

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