Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET

Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 78%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Signal

20 of 25 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,092

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares960

Combined PnL-$117.58

Up — 80%Down — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 72.6¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$141.1	56% 14686-11561 (26247)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 59.4¢	$862.64	$1.5K	+$589.3	58% 38145-27331 (65476)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 77.5¢	$735.65	$949.06	+$213.41	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 69.3¢	$710.92	$745.61	+$34.69	50% 5432-5497 (10929)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 67.2¢	$704.72	$735.06	+$30.34	55% 15670-13048 (28718)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.2¢	$493.96	$735.06	+$241.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 28¢	$210.76	—	-$210.76
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 71.4¢	$286.74	$340.03	+$54.59	55% 7618-6237 (13855)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 68¢	$301.11	$306.94	+$5.83	56% 13926-11039 (24965)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68¢	$208.84	$306.94	+$98.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.8¢	$92.27	—	-$92.27
machinelearned	Upavg 68.6¢	$223.69	$271.24	+$47.55	55% 8802-7251 (16053)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 72.5¢	$235.62	$278.34	+$42.72	66% 99355-51517 (150872)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 64.8¢	$177.03	$189.99	+$12.97	57% 12641-9708 (22349)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.8¢	$123.2	$189.99	+$66.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 25¢	$53.83	—	-$53.83
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 77.4¢	$208.4	$183.49	-$24.91	54% 8178-6875 (15053)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 70.8¢	$71.3	$78.99	+$7.69	55% 45436-37823 (83259)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 81.4¢	$60.17	$73.89	+$13.72	66% 126437-65111 (191548)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 71.8¢	$65.81	$46.95	-$18.86	60% 12403-8229 (20632)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 72¢	$71.98	$99.97	+$27.99	74% 102799-36473 (139272)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 37.5¢	$40.92	—	-$40.92	35% 18950-35949 (54899)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 68.7¢	$41.2	$60	+$18.8	55% 24032-19415 (43447)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 72¢	$55.54	$50.21	+$15.64	64% 24039-13275 (37314)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 55¢	$41.23	$74.96	+$33.73	59% 6923-4865 (11788)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$7.98	—	-$7.98	63% 52187-31091 (83278)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 15.9¢	$60.77	—	-$60.77	46% 38360-45313 (83673)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 68¢	$17.25	$25.37	+$8.12	58% 60787-44362 (105149)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 78.4¢	$10.54	$13.44	+$2.9	65% 4143-2256 (6399)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 26¢	$7	—	-$7	64% 40342-23071 (63413)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 73.3¢	$4.05	$5.53	+$1.48	55% 18044-14641 (32685)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,201.14

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$141.1

Record

56%

14686-11561 (26247)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$862.64

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$589.3

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$735.65

Value

$949.06

PnL

+$213.41

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

ply-pm0

Invested

$710.92

Value

$745.61

PnL

+$34.69

Record

50%

5432-5497 (10929)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$704.72

Value

$735.06

PnL

+$30.34

Record

55%

15670-13048 (28718)

Both legs:

Up$493.9667.2¢+$241.1

Down$210.7628¢-$210.76

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$286.74

Value

$340.03

PnL

+$54.59

Record

55%

7618-6237 (13855)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$301.11

Value

$306.94

PnL

+$5.83

Record

56%

13926-11039 (24965)

Both legs:

Up$208.8468¢+$98.1

Down$92.2728.8¢-$92.27

machinelearned

Invested

$223.69

Value

$271.24

PnL

+$47.55

Record

55%

8802-7251 (16053)

Bonereaper

Invested

$235.62

Value

$278.34

PnL

+$42.72

Record

66%

99355-51517 (150872)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$177.03

Value

$189.99

PnL

+$12.97

Record

57%

12641-9708 (22349)

Both legs:

Up$123.264.8¢+$66.8

Down$53.8325¢-$53.83

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$208.4

Value

$183.49

PnL

-$24.91

Record

54%

8178-6875 (15053)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$71.3

Value

$78.99

PnL

+$7.69

Record

55%

45436-37823 (83259)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$60.17

Value

$73.89

PnL

+$13.72

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$65.81

Value

$46.95

PnL

-$18.86

Record

60%

12403-8229 (20632)

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$71.98

Value

$99.97

PnL

+$27.99

Record

74%

102799-36473 (139272)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.92

Value

—

PnL

-$40.92

Record

35%

18950-35949 (54899)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$41.2

Value

$60

PnL

+$18.8

Record

55%

24032-19415 (43447)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$55.54

Value

$50.21

PnL

+$15.64

Record

64%

24039-13275 (37314)

13897651<$100

Invested

$41.23

Value

$74.96

PnL

+$33.73

Record

59%

6923-4865 (11788)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.98

Value

—

PnL

-$7.98

Record

63%

52187-31091 (83278)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$60.77

Value

—

PnL

-$60.77

Record

46%

38360-45313 (83673)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$17.25

Value

$25.37

PnL

+$8.12

Record

58%

60787-44362 (105149)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$10.54

Value

$13.44

PnL

+$2.9

Record

65%

4143-2256 (6399)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$7

Record

64%

40342-23071 (63413)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$4.05

Value

$5.53

PnL

+$1.48

Record

55%

18044-14641 (32685)

Smart Money Signal

20 of 25 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xf03ad208...48b571

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793460600

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.3K

+$141.1

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.5K

+$589.3

uninformedfloww

Up — $949.06

+$213.41

ply-pm0

Up — $745.61

+$34.69

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$30.34

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $340.03

+$54.59

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$5.83

machinelearned

Up — $271.24

+$47.55

Bonereaper

Up — $278.34

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded