Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

-$85.92

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 21 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares9,888

Combined PnL+$136.57

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,160

Combined PnL-$222.49

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barrister	Down	$8.0K	$8.0K	+$2.21	56% 3664-2839 (6503)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 80.6¢	$476.26	$491.64	+$15.37	56% 14686-11561 (26247)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 92¢	$303.65	$330.05	+$26.4	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 75.5¢	$256.8	$276.71	+$19.91	50% 5432-5497 (10929)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 73.5¢	$214.61	$291.99	+$77.39	58% 38145-27331 (65476)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 38.9¢	$150.74	—	-$150.74	56% 8126-6271 (14397)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Downavg 78.6¢	$156.68	$157.43	+$0.75	54% 8178-6875 (15053)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.6¢	$123.68	$157.43	+$33.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.5¢	$33	—	-$33
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 73¢	$170.03	$128.51	-$41.52	55% 15670-13048 (28718)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73¢	$93.87	$128.51	+$34.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.7¢	$76.16	—	-$76.16
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 73.9¢	$134.73	$149.3	+$14.57	66% 99355-51517 (150872)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 92.1¢	$103.63	$109.48	+$5.84	60% 12403-8229 (20632)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Downavg 70.8¢	$63.96	$58.66	-$5.3	56% 13926-11039 (24965)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 57.9¢	$61.96	$68.13	+$6.17	59% 6923-4865 (11788)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.9¢	$39.43	$68.13	+$28.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 46¢	$22.53	—	-$22.53
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 75.6¢	$58.29	$50.37	-$7.92	57% 12641-9708 (22349)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 86.3¢	$52.57	$60.92	+$8.35	66% 126437-65111 (191548)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 98¢	$58.9	$44	-$14.9	55% 7618-6237 (13855)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 28.8¢	$44.97	—	-$44.97	55% 8802-7251 (16053)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 70.7¢	$19.76	$19.24	-$0.52	64% 24039-13275 (37314)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 90.7¢	$23.7	$15.06	-$8.64	55% 18044-14641 (32685)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 18.6¢	$15.58	—	-$15.58	55% 45436-37823 (83259)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$4.85	—	-$4.85	63% 52187-31091 (83278)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 76¢	$8.02	$10.55	+$2.53	62% 43985-26997 (70982)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 76¢	$4.05	$5.33	+$1.28	65% 4143-2256 (6399)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 31¢	$1.75	—	-$1.75	52% 90814-85344 (176158)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 3.7¢	$4.61	—	-$4.61	46% 38360-45313 (83673)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$7,975

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$2.21

Record

56%

3664-2839 (6503)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$476.26

Value

$491.64

PnL

+$15.37

Record

56%

14686-11561 (26247)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$303.65

Value

$330.05

PnL

+$26.4

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$256.8

Value

$276.71

PnL

+$19.91

Record

50%

5432-5497 (10929)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$214.61

Value

$291.99

PnL

+$77.39

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$150.74

Value

—

PnL

-$150.74

Record

56%

8126-6271 (14397)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$156.68

Value

$157.43

PnL

+$0.75

Record

54%

8178-6875 (15053)

Both legs:

Down$123.6878.6¢+$33.75

Up$3317.5¢-$33

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$170.03

Value

$128.51

PnL

-$41.52

Record

55%

15670-13048 (28718)

Both legs:

Invested

$134.73

Value

$149.3

PnL

+$14.57

Record

66%

99355-51517 (150872)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$103.63

Value

$109.48

PnL

+$5.84

Record

60%

12403-8229 (20632)

GoodFallen<$100

Down

Invested

$63.96

Value

$58.66

PnL

-$5.3

Record

56%

13926-11039 (24965)

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$61.96

Value

$68.13

PnL

+$6.17

Record

59%

6923-4865 (11788)

Both legs:

Down$39.4357.9¢+$28.7

Up$22.5346¢-$22.53

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$58.29

Value

$50.37

PnL

-$7.92

Record

57%

12641-9708 (22349)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$52.57

Value

$60.92

PnL

+$8.35

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$58.9

Value

$44

PnL

-$14.9

Record

55%

7618-6237 (13855)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$44.97

Value

—

PnL

-$44.97

Record

55%

8802-7251 (16053)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$19.76

Value

$19.24

PnL

-$0.52

Record

64%

24039-13275 (37314)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$23.7

Value

$15.06

PnL

-$8.64

Record

55%

18044-14641 (32685)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$15.58

Value

—

PnL

-$15.58

Record

55%

45436-37823 (83259)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

—

PnL

-$4.85

Record

63%

52187-31091 (83278)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$8.02

Value

$10.55

PnL

+$2.53

Record

62%

43985-26997 (70982)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$4.05

Value

$5.33

PnL

+$1.28

Record

65%

4143-2256 (6399)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.75

Value

—

PnL

-$1.75

Record

52%

90814-85344 (176158)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$4.61

Value

—

PnL

-$4.61

Record

46%

38360-45313 (83673)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 21 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1a9c2da1...9ea2f9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793460000

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $8.0K

+$2.21

CrouchPredictions

Down — $491.64

+$15.37

uninformedfloww

Down — $330.05

+$26.4

ply-pm0

Down — $276.71

+$19.91

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $291.99

wzbbb

Up — $0

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$41.52

Bonereaper

Down — $149.3

+$14.57

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $109.48

+$5.84

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