Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET

Resolved Up. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$543.2

Smart Money Signal

22 of 25 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up22 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares4,784

Combined PnL+$615.15

Down3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,252

Combined PnL-$71.95

Up — 88%Down — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.65	74% 102799-36473 (139272)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 67.9¢	$680	$1.0K	+$321.69	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 74.8¢	$646.29	$672.24	+$25.95	56% 14686-11561 (26247)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 69.5¢	$388.4	$421.42	+$33.02	50% 5432-5497 (10929)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 62.7¢	$231.86	$243.67	+$11.81	55% 15670-13048 (28718)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 73.4¢	$219.61	$232.85	+$13.24	54% 8178-6875 (15053)
machinelearned	Upavg 69.3¢	$170.31	$146.28	-$24.03	55% 8802-7251 (16053)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 85.8¢	$150.5	$175.37	+$24.87	56% 58346-45004 (103350)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 68.9¢	$150.08	$153.62	+$3.54	66% 99355-51517 (150872)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 44.7¢	$131.05	$74.82	-$56.23	56% 8126-6271 (14397)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.7¢	$89.82	—	-$89.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.1¢	$41.23	$74.82	+$33.59
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 58.8¢	$127.36	$216.42	+$89.07	58% 38145-27331 (65476)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 68.4¢	$111	$96.49	-$14.51	57% 12641-9708 (22349)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.4¢	$66	$96.49	+$30.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 45¢	$45	—	-$45
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 97¢	$73.36	$75.63	+$2.27	60% 12403-8229 (20632)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 61.4¢	$48.65	$58.07	+$14.19	64% 24039-13275 (37314)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 78.2¢	$47.48	$60.7	+$13.22	66% 126437-65111 (191548)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 63.1¢	$27.55	$42	+$14.45	55% 45436-37823 (83259)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Upavg 65.4¢	$32.94	$34.99	+$2.05	56% 13926-11039 (24965)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 54.9¢	$29.92	$54.46	+$24.54	59% 6923-4865 (11788)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 45.4¢	$38.69	—	-$38.69	35% 18950-35949 (54899)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 49.5¢	$24.75	$50	+$25.25	58% 51142-37272 (88414)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 69.9¢	$18.4	$20.18	+$1.77	55% 7618-6237 (13855)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 89¢	$22.5	$25.28	+$2.78	62% 43985-26997 (70982)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 11¢	$23.75	—	-$23.75	46% 38360-45313 (83673)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 85¢	$17	$20	+$3	55% 24032-19415 (43447)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 87.2¢	$12.49	$14.32	+$1.83	65% 4143-2256 (6399)

BoneOhio

Invested

$1,054.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.65

Record

74%

102799-36473 (139272)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$680

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$321.69

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$646.29

Value

$672.24

PnL

+$25.95

Record

56%

14686-11561 (26247)

ply-pm0

Invested

$388.4

Value

$421.42

PnL

+$33.02

Record

50%

5432-5497 (10929)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$231.86

Value

$243.67

PnL

+$11.81

Record

55%

15670-13048 (28718)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$219.61

Value

$232.85

PnL

+$13.24

Record

54%

8178-6875 (15053)

machinelearned

Invested

$170.31

Value

$146.28

PnL

-$24.03

Record

55%

8802-7251 (16053)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$150.5

Value

$175.37

PnL

+$24.87

Record

56%

58346-45004 (103350)

Bonereaper

Invested

$150.08

Value

$153.62

PnL

+$3.54

Record

66%

99355-51517 (150872)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$131.05

Value

$74.82

PnL

-$56.23

Record

56%

8126-6271 (14397)

Both legs:

Down$89.8244.7¢-$89.82

Up$41.2355.1¢+$33.59

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$127.36

Value

$216.42

PnL

+$89.07

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$111

Value

$96.49

PnL

-$14.51

Record

57%

12641-9708 (22349)

Both legs:

Up$6668.4¢+$30.49

Down$4545¢-$45

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$73.36

Value

$75.63

PnL

+$2.27

Record

60%

12403-8229 (20632)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$48.65

Value

$58.07

PnL

+$14.19

Record

64%

24039-13275 (37314)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$47.48

Value

$60.7

PnL

+$13.22

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$27.55

Value

$42

PnL

+$14.45

Record

55%

45436-37823 (83259)

GoodFallen<$100

Invested

$32.94

Value

$34.99

PnL

+$2.05

Record

56%

13926-11039 (24965)

13897651<$100

Invested

$29.92

Value

$54.46

PnL

+$24.54

Record

59%

6923-4865 (11788)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$38.69

Value

—

PnL

-$38.69

Record

35%

18950-35949 (54899)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$24.75

Value

$50

PnL

+$25.25

Record

58%

51142-37272 (88414)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$18.4

Value

$20.18

PnL

+$1.77

Record

55%

7618-6237 (13855)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$22.5

Value

$25.28

PnL

+$2.78

Record

62%

43985-26997 (70982)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$23.75

Value

—

PnL

-$23.75

Record

46%

38360-45313 (83673)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$17

Value

$20

PnL

+$3

Record

55%

24032-19415 (43447)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$12.49

Value

$14.32

PnL

+$1.83

Record

65%

4143-2256 (6399)

Smart Money Signal

22 of 25 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9feaa951...46a017

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793459700

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Up — $1.1K

+$10.65

uninformedfloww

Up — $1.0K

+$321.69

CrouchPredictions

Up — $672.24

+$25.95

ply-pm0

Up — $421.42

+$33.02

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $243.67

+$11.81

sfkjbsr457

Up — $232.85

+$13.24

machinelearned

Up — $146.28

-$24.03

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $175.37

+$24.87

Bonereaper

Up — $153.62

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded