Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 68%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

$859.06

Smart Money Signal

21 of 33 top traders (64%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares7,030

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,335

Combined PnL-$279.68

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 76.9¢	$2.7K	$1.9K	-$840.09	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.9¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$439.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.5¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 60.2¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$205.46	55% 15670-13048 (28718)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 74.6¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$50.86	56% 14686-11561 (26247)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 56.2¢	$621.1	$807.73	+$186.63	56% 13926-11039 (24965)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 52.8¢	$535.51	$590.86	+$55.34	50% 5432-5497 (10929)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 75¢	$546.68	$500.75	-$45.93	55% 7618-6237 (13855)
TE Telawin	Upavg 56¢	$500	$892.86	+$392.86	50% 347-344 (691)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 57.9¢	$432.43	$417.18	-$15.25	57% 12641-9708 (22349)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 70.9¢	$294.43	$376.65	+$82.22	60% 12403-8229 (20632)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 48.6¢	$225.74	$117	-$108.74	56% 8126-6271 (14397)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.6¢	$165.13	—	-$165.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.8¢	$60.61	$117	+$56.39
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 57¢	$214.09	$188.98	-$25.11	58% 38145-27331 (65476)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57¢	$107.72	$188.98	+$81.26
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.4¢	$106.37	—	-$106.37
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 75¢	$236.25	$175	-$61.25	55% 8802-7251 (16053)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75¢	$131.25	$175	+$43.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.3¢	$105	—	-$105
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 60.2¢	$181.1	$217.9	+$36.8	66% 99355-51517 (150872)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 74.1¢	$161.06	$169.42	+$8.35	58% 60787-44362 (105149)
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 56.9¢	$101	$160	+$59	55% 24032-19415 (43447)
SE seeeeeeb	Upavg 71¢	$110.41	$155.5	+$45.1	51% 751-709 (1460)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR	Downavg 35.4¢	$214.81	—	-$214.81	56% 58346-45004 (103350)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Downavg 68.9¢	$157.83	$76.31	-$81.52	62% 43985-26997 (70982)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.4¢	$54.5	$76.31	+$21.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.9¢	$103.33	—	-$103.33
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 60¢	$82.9	$73.78	-$9.11	66% 126437-65111 (191548)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60¢	$44.3	$73.78	+$29.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.4¢	$38.6	—	-$38.6
GA gansinimen	Upavg 54.4¢	$54.39	$100	+$45.61	51% 17186-16689 (33875)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 52¢	$54.6	$105	+$50.4	57% 10453-7836 (18289)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 19.8¢	$37.72	—	-$37.72	66% 112343-59004 (171347)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 59¢	$62.18	$66.67	+$20.09	64% 24039-13275 (37314)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 78.5¢	$48.62	$61.9	+$13.28	46% 38360-45313 (83673)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 31¢	$20.94	$45.16	+$24.22	64% 40342-23071 (63413)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$2,748.01

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$840.09

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

Both legs:

Up$1,468.176.9¢+$439.82

Down$1,279.9249.5¢$-1.3K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,037.42

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$205.46

Record

55%

15670-13048 (28718)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,073.11

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$50.86

Record

56%

14686-11561 (26247)

GoodFallen

Invested

$621.1

Value

$807.73

PnL

+$186.63

Record

56%

13926-11039 (24965)

ply-pm0

Invested

$535.51

Value

$590.86

PnL

+$55.34

Record

50%

5432-5497 (10929)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$546.68

Value

$500.75

PnL

-$45.93

Record

55%

7618-6237 (13855)

Telawin

Invested

$500

Value

$892.86

PnL

+$392.86

Record

50%

347-344 (691)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$432.43

Value

$417.18

PnL

-$15.25

Record

57%

12641-9708 (22349)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$294.43

Value

$376.65

PnL

+$82.22

Record

60%

12403-8229 (20632)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$225.74

Value

$117

PnL

-$108.74

Record

56%

8126-6271 (14397)

Both legs:

Down$165.1348.6¢-$165.13

Up$60.6151.8¢+$56.39

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$214.09

Value

$188.98

PnL

-$25.11

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

Both legs:

Up$107.7257¢+$81.26

Down$106.3741.4¢-$106.37

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$236.25

Value

$175

PnL

-$61.25

Record

55%

8802-7251 (16053)

Both legs:

Up$131.2575¢+$43.75

Down$10532.3¢-$105

Bonereaper

Invested

$181.1

Value

$217.9

PnL

+$36.8

Record

66%

99355-51517 (150872)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$161.06

Value

$169.42

PnL

+$8.35

Record

58%

60787-44362 (105149)

sir-upalot

Invested

$101

Value

$160

PnL

+$59

Record

55%

24032-19415 (43447)

seeeeeeb

Invested

$110.41

Value

$155.5

PnL

+$45.1

Record

51%

751-709 (1460)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR

Down

Invested

$214.81

Value

—

PnL

-$214.81

Record

56%

58346-45004 (103350)

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Down

Invested

$157.83

Value

$76.31

PnL

-$81.52

Record

62%

43985-26997 (70982)

Both legs:

Up$54.571.4¢+$21.81

Down$103.3368.9¢-$103.33

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$82.9

Value

$73.78

PnL

-$9.11

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

Both legs:

Up$44.360¢+$29.48

Down$38.642.4¢-$38.6

gansinimen

Invested

$54.39

Value

$100

PnL

+$45.61

Record

51%

17186-16689 (33875)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$54.6

Value

$105

PnL

+$50.4

Record

57%

10453-7836 (18289)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$37.72

Value

—

PnL

-$37.72

Record

66%

112343-59004 (171347)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$62.18

Value

$66.67

PnL

+$20.09

Record

64%

24039-13275 (37314)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$48.62

Value

$61.9

PnL

+$13.28

Record

46%

38360-45313 (83673)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$20.94

Value

$45.16

PnL

+$24.22

Record

64%

40342-23071 (63413)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 33 top traders (64%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6da2ed22...d5e05b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793459100

Traders in this Market

uninformedfloww

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$840.09

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.2K

+$205.46

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.0K

-$50.86

GoodFallen

Up — $807.73

+$186.63

ply-pm0

Up — $590.86

+$55.34

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $500.75

-$45.93

Telawin

Up — $892.86

+$392.86

FairValueMachine

Up — $417.18

-$15.25

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $376.65

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded