Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$407.28

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 25 top traders (68%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,422

Combined PnL+$867.98

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares876

Combined PnL-$460.7

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$1.4	59% 62464-43615 (106079)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 58.5¢	$713.14	$689.9	-$23.25	56% 14686-11561 (26247)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.5¢	$403.58	$689.9	+$286.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.9¢	$309.56	—	-$309.56
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 45.8¢	$413.22	$344.99	-$68.22	55% 15670-13048 (28718)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.5¢	$136.25	$344.99	+$208.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.8¢	$276.97	—	-$276.97
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 43.3¢	$293.93	$281.83	-$12.09	56% 13926-11039 (24965)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.4¢	$144.75	$281.83	+$137.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.3¢	$149.17	—	-$149.17
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 47.9¢	$233.59	$278.91	+$45.33	50% 5432-5497 (10929)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.9¢	$133.6	$278.91	+$145.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.1¢	$99.99	—	-$99.99
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 44.7¢	$559.21	$89.16	-$470.05	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.7¢	$494.41	—	-$494.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.7¢	$64.8	$89.16	+$24.36
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 67.2¢	$215.07	$316.24	+$101.17	56% 58346-45004 (103350)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 29.7¢	$82.31	$277	+$194.69	58% 60787-44362 (105149)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$181.56	$200	+$18.44	51% 17186-16689 (33875)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$111	$200	+$89
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.9¢	$70.56	—	-$70.56
FairValueMachine	Downavg 57.4¢	$160.68	$196.02	+$35.34	57% 12641-9708 (22349)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 39.7¢	$124.91	$177.4	+$52.59	55% 7618-6237 (13855)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 53.8¢	$176.66	$163.16	-$13.5	60% 12403-8229 (20632)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.8¢	$82.88	$163.16	+$80.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.8¢	$93.78	—	-$93.78
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 54.6¢	$144.83	$180.43	+$35.6	66% 99355-51517 (150872)
BoneOhioCTR	Upavg 68¢	$167.98	—	-$167.98	74% 102799-36473 (139272)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 53.9¢	$94.25	$174.99	+$80.75	62% 43985-26997 (70982)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 54.6¢	$137.32	—	-$137.32	58% 38145-27331 (65476)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 38.7¢	$101.6	$119.56	+$137.52	54% 8178-6875 (15053)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 47.2¢	$85.36	$180.88	+$95.52	56% 8126-6271 (14397)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 39.5¢	$121.57	$36	-$85.57	55% 8802-7251 (16053)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.5¢	$103.93	—	-$103.93
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$17.64	$36	+$18.36
LI Little-big	Downavg 47.3¢	$73.05	$154.55	+$81.5	35% 18950-35949 (54899)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 7.5¢	$19.29	—	-$19.29	46% 38360-45313 (83673)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 69.8¢	$69.21	$50	-$19.21	55% 45436-37823 (83259)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 77.1¢	$44.04	$57.14	+$13.1	66% 126437-65111 (191548)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 66.7¢	$48.2	—	-$48.2	64% 40342-23071 (63413)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 45.5¢	$22.74	$49.97	+$27.24	58% 51142-37272 (88414)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$1,403.29

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$1.4

Record

59%

62464-43615 (106079)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$713.14

Value

$689.9

PnL

-$23.25

Record

56%

14686-11561 (26247)

Both legs:

Down$403.5858.5¢+$286.32

Up$309.5639.9¢-$309.56

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$413.22

Value

$344.99

PnL

-$68.22

Record

55%

15670-13048 (28718)

Both legs:

Down$136.2539.5¢+$208.74

Up$276.9745.8¢-$276.97

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$293.93

Value

$281.83

PnL

-$12.09

Record

56%

13926-11039 (24965)

Both legs:

Down$144.7551.4¢+$137.08

Up$149.1743.3¢-$149.17

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$233.59

Value

$278.91

PnL

+$45.33

Record

50%

5432-5497 (10929)

Both legs:

Down$133.647.9¢+$145.31

Up$99.9928.1¢-$99.99

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$559.21

Value

$89.16

PnL

-$470.05

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

Both legs:

Up$494.4144.7¢-$494.41

Down$64.872.7¢+$24.36

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$215.07

Value

$316.24

PnL

+$101.17

Record

56%

58346-45004 (103350)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$82.31

Value

$277

PnL

+$194.69

Record

58%

60787-44362 (105149)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$181.56

Value

$200

PnL

+$18.44

Record

51%

17186-16689 (33875)

Both legs:

Invested

$160.68

Value

$196.02

PnL

+$35.34

Record

57%

12641-9708 (22349)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$124.91

Value

$177.4

PnL

+$52.59

Record

55%

7618-6237 (13855)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$176.66

Value

$163.16

PnL

-$13.5

Record

60%

12403-8229 (20632)

Both legs:

Down$82.8850.8¢+$80.28

Up$93.7853.8¢-$93.78

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$144.83

Value

$180.43

PnL

+$35.6

Record

66%

99355-51517 (150872)

BoneOhioCTR

Invested

$167.98

Value

—

PnL

-$167.98

Record

74%

102799-36473 (139272)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$94.25

Value

$174.99

PnL

+$80.75

Record

62%

43985-26997 (70982)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$137.32

Value

—

PnL

-$137.32

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$101.6

Value

$119.56

PnL

+$137.52

Record

54%

8178-6875 (15053)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$85.36

Value

$180.88

PnL

+$95.52

Record

56%

8126-6271 (14397)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$121.57

Value

$36

PnL

-$85.57

Record

55%

8802-7251 (16053)

Both legs:

Up$103.9339.5¢-$103.93

Down$17.6449¢+$18.36

Little-big

Down

Invested

$73.05

Value

$154.55

PnL

+$81.5

Record

35%

18950-35949 (54899)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$19.29

Value

—

PnL

-$19.29

Record

46%

38360-45313 (83673)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$69.21

Value

$50

PnL

-$19.21

Record

55%

45436-37823 (83259)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$44.04

Value

$57.14

PnL

+$13.1

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$48.2

Value

—

PnL

-$48.2

Record

64%

40342-23071 (63413)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$22.74

Value

$49.97

PnL

+$27.24

Record

58%

51142-37272 (88414)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 25 top traders (68%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb3d9c457...d20fa6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793458800

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $1.4K

+$1.4

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$23.25

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $316.24

+$101.17

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $277

+$194.69

gansinimen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$18.44

FairValueMachine

Down — $196.02

+$35.34

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