Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Down 82%
1 arb excluded
$10.3K
$163.89
Smart Money Signal
24 of 30 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.01 | 59% 62464-43615 (106079) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 98.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$25.69 | 74% 102799-36473 (139272) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.44 | 93% 23963-1799 (25762) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 91.5¢ | $485.12 | $530.06 | +$44.94 | 46% 38360-45313 (83673) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 88.5¢ | $369.49 | $405.04 | +$35.56 | 66% 99355-51517 (150872) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 82.5¢ | $393.4 | $398.99 | +$5.59 | 50% 5432-5497 (10929) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 93.3¢ | $467.9 | $380.83 | -$87.07 | 55% 8802-7251 (16053) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 94.9¢ | $318.73 | $335.74 | +$17.01 | 55% 45436-37823 (83259) |
SE seeeeeeb | Downavg 97¢ | $261.9 | $270 | +$8.1 | 51% 751-709 (1460) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 73¢ | $281.87 | $385.95 | +$104.09 | 56% 14686-11561 (26247) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 80.4¢ | $226.59 | $162.53 | -$64.06 | 55% 15670-13048 (28718) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 85.3¢ | $164.12 | $131.42 | -$32.7 | 56% 13926-11039 (24965) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 85.3¢ | $112.12 | $131.42 | +$19.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.8¢ | $52 | — | -$52 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 88.2¢ | $117.06 | $122.78 | +$5.73 | 60% 12403-8229 (20632) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $87.65 | $92.43 | +$4.78 | 55% 7618-6237 (13855) |
13 13897651 | Downavg 70.5¢ | $115.8 | $157.29 | +$41.49 | 59% 6923-4865 (11788) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $54.85 | $60 | +$5.15 | 57% 12641-9708 (22349) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 89.8¢ | $40.27 | $42.23 | +$1.96 | 66% 126437-65111 (191548) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 97.7¢ | $29.4 | $30.09 | +$0.69 | 65% 4143-2256 (6399) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 79.7¢ | $24.97 | $31.32 | +$6.35 | 52% 90814-85344 (176158) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $17.1 | — | -$17.1 | 56% 8126-6271 (14397) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $36.5 | $50 | +$13.5 | 35% 18950-35949 (54899) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 76.3¢ | $56.82 | $20.35 | +$13.47 | 64% 24039-13275 (37314) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $9.01 | — | -$9.01 | 58% 38145-27331 (65476) |
0X 0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e<$100 | Downavg 98.5¢ | $11.82 | $12 | +$0.18 | 54% 1619-1372 (2991) |
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh<$100 | Downavg 98.5¢ | $11.82 | $12 | +$0.18 | 58% 1343-973 (2316) |
Invested
$3,005
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.01
Record
59%
62464-43615 (106079)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,412.88
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$25.69
Record
74%
102799-36473 (139272)
Invested
$1,186.56
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.44
Record
93%
23963-1799 (25762)
pspspsps5Invested
$485.12
Value
$530.06
PnL
+$44.94
Record
46%
38360-45313 (83673)
Invested
$369.49
Value
$405.04
PnL
+$35.56
Record
66%
99355-51517 (150872)
Invested
$393.4
Value
$398.99
PnL
+$5.59
Record
50%
5432-5497 (10929)
machinelearnedInvested
$467.9
Value
$380.83
PnL
-$87.07
Record
55%
8802-7251 (16053)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$318.73
Value
$335.74
PnL
+$17.01
Record
55%
45436-37823 (83259)
Invested
$261.9
Value
$270
PnL
+$8.1
Record
51%
751-709 (1460)
Invested
$281.87
Value
$385.95
PnL
+$104.09
Record
56%
14686-11561 (26247)
Invested
$226.59
Value
$162.53
PnL
-$64.06
Record
55%
15670-13048 (28718)
Invested
$164.12
Value
$131.42
PnL
-$32.7
Record
56%
13926-11039 (24965)
Both legs:
Invested
$117.06
Value
$122.78
PnL
+$5.73
Record
60%
12403-8229 (20632)
Invested
$87.65
Value
$92.43
PnL
+$4.78
Record
55%
7618-6237 (13855)
Invested
$115.8
Value
$157.29
PnL
+$41.49
Record
59%
6923-4865 (11788)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$54.85
Value
$60
PnL
+$5.15
Record
57%
12641-9708 (22349)
Invested
$40.27
Value
$42.23
PnL
+$1.96
Record
66%
126437-65111 (191548)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$29.4
Value
$30.09
PnL
+$0.69
Record
65%
4143-2256 (6399)
Invested
$24.97
Value
$31.32
PnL
+$6.35
Record
52%
90814-85344 (176158)
Invested
$17.1
Value
—
PnL
-$17.1
Record
56%
8126-6271 (14397)
Invested
$36.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$13.5
Record
35%
18950-35949 (54899)
Invested
$56.82
Value
$20.35
PnL
+$13.47
Record
64%
24039-13275 (37314)
Invested
$9.01
Value
—
PnL
-$9.01
Record
58%
38145-27331 (65476)
Invested
$11.82
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.18
Record
54%
1619-1372 (2991)
Invested
$11.82
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.18
Record
58%
1343-973 (2316)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
BoneOhio
Down — $2.4K
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
pspspsps5
Down — $530.06
Bonereaper
Down — $405.04
ply-pm0
Down — $398.99
machinelearned
Down — $380.83
MayorMamdani
Down — $335.74
seeeeeeb
Down — $270
CrouchPredictions
Down — $385.95