Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET

Resolved Down. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 33%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 28 top traders (36%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,272

Combined PnL+$128.23

Up18 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,320

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Down — 36%Up — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 35.3¢	$1.9K	$2.8K	+$851.48	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.3¢	$985.03	$2.8K	+$1.8K
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.4¢	$950.64	—	-$950.64
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 70.4¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$82.83	56% 14686-11561 (26247)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 32.4¢	$945.44	—	-$945.44	50% 5432-5497 (10929)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 51.4¢	$870.23	$607.95	-$262.28	55% 15670-13048 (28718)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$601.93	—	-$601.93
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.1¢	$268.3	$607.95	+$339.65
BoneOhio	Downavg 72¢	$532.41	$699.19	+$166.79	74% 102799-36473 (139272)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 42.8¢	$390.38	$410.66	+$20.28	51% 17186-16689 (33875)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.8¢	$263.31	—	-$263.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.9¢	$127.07	$410.66	+$283.59
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 48.2¢	$477.93	$407.91	-$70.01	56% 13926-11039 (24965)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.2¢	$287.36	—	-$287.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.7¢	$190.57	$407.91	+$217.34
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 63.9¢	$573.29	$601.94	+$28.65	60% 12403-8229 (20632)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.7¢	$188.71	—	-$188.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.9¢	$384.58	$601.94	+$217.36
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 53.8¢	$455.54	$472.83	+$17.29	54% 8178-6875 (15053)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 77.7¢	$479	$487.71	+$8.7	66% 99355-51517 (150872)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.7¢	$378.77	$487.71	+$108.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.1¢	$100.23	—	-$100.23
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 57.9¢	$367.54	$362.38	-$5.16	57% 12641-9708 (22349)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.6¢	$157.74	—	-$157.74
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.9¢	$209.79	$362.38	+$152.58
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Upavg 60.4¢	$294.23	—	-$290.68	55% 7618-6237 (13855)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 24.6¢	$310.22	—	-$310.22	55% 8802-7251 (16053)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 32¢	$101.49	$73.61	-$27.88	46% 38360-45313 (83673)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32¢	$70.7	—	-$70.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.8¢	$30.79	$73.61	+$42.82
LI Little-bigCTR	Upavg 53.4¢	$133.5	—	-$133.5	35% 18950-35949 (54899)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 59.4¢	$198.11	—	-$198.11	58% 38145-27331 (65476)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 51.6¢	$84.68	$154.97	+$70.29	58% 60787-44362 (105149)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Downavg 46.1¢	$68.45	$94.94	+$26.49	55% 18044-14641 (32685)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.1¢	$43.8	$94.94	+$51.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.2¢	$24.65	—	-$24.65
NIULAI4<$100	Downavg 93.6¢	$75.18	$73.5	-$1.68	77% 9497-2916 (12413)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 95.9¢	$77.36	$61.71	-$15.65	55% 45436-37823 (83259)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 7.1¢	$6.7	—	-$6.7	63% 52187-31091 (83278)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 87.9¢	$88.83	$56.88	-$31.95	66% 126437-65111 (191548)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 57.8¢	$60.2	—	-$60.2	55% 24032-19415 (43447)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 80.4¢	$47.04	$41.42	-$5.62	52% 90814-85344 (176158)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 30.5¢	$18.8	—	-$18.8	64% 40342-23071 (63413)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,935.67

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$851.48

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

Both legs:

Down$985.0335.3¢+$1.8K

Up$950.6456.4¢-$950.64

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,754.06

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$82.83

Record

56%

14686-11561 (26247)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$945.44

Value

—

PnL

-$945.44

Record

50%

5432-5497 (10929)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$870.23

Value

$607.95

PnL

-$262.28

Record

55%

15670-13048 (28718)

Both legs:

Up$601.9351.4¢-$601.93

Down$268.344.1¢+$339.65

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$532.41

Value

$699.19

PnL

+$166.79

Record

74%

102799-36473 (139272)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$390.38

Value

$410.66

PnL

+$20.28

Record

51%

17186-16689 (33875)

Both legs:

Up$263.3142.8¢-$263.31

Down$127.0730.9¢+$283.59

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$477.93

Value

$407.91

PnL

-$70.01

Record

56%

13926-11039 (24965)

Both legs:

Up$287.3648.2¢-$287.36

Down$190.5746.7¢+$217.34

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$573.29

Value

$601.94

PnL

+$28.65

Record

60%

12403-8229 (20632)

Both legs:

Up$188.7140.7¢-$188.71

Down$384.5863.9¢+$217.36

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$455.54

Value

$472.83

PnL

+$17.29

Record

54%

8178-6875 (15053)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$479

Value

$487.71

PnL

+$8.7

Record

66%

99355-51517 (150872)

Both legs:

Down$378.7777.7¢+$108.94

Up$100.2335.1¢-$100.23

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$367.54

Value

$362.38

PnL

-$5.16

Record

57%

12641-9708 (22349)

Both legs:

Up$157.7451.6¢-$157.74

Down$209.7957.9¢+$152.58

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Invested

$294.23

Value

—

PnL

-$290.68

Record

55%

7618-6237 (13855)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$310.22

Value

—

PnL

-$310.22

Record

55%

8802-7251 (16053)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$101.49

Value

$73.61

PnL

-$27.88

Record

46%

38360-45313 (83673)

Both legs:

Up$70.732¢-$70.7

Down$30.7941.8¢+$42.82

Little-bigCTR

Invested

$133.5

Value

—

PnL

-$133.5

Record

35%

18950-35949 (54899)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$198.11

Value

—

PnL

-$198.11

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$84.68

Value

$154.97

PnL

+$70.29

Record

58%

60787-44362 (105149)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$68.45

Value

$94.94

PnL

+$26.49

Record

55%

18044-14641 (32685)

Both legs:

Down$43.846.1¢+$51.14

Up$24.6543.2¢-$24.65

NIULAI4<$100

Down

Invested

$75.18

Value

$73.5

PnL

-$1.68

Record

77%

9497-2916 (12413)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$77.36

Value

$61.71

PnL

-$15.65

Record

55%

45436-37823 (83259)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$6.7

Value

—

PnL

-$6.7

Record

63%

52187-31091 (83278)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$88.83

Value

$56.88

PnL

-$31.95

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$60.2

Value

—

PnL

-$60.2

Record

55%

24032-19415 (43447)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$47.04

Value

$41.42

PnL

-$5.62

Record

52%

90814-85344 (176158)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$18.8

Value

—

PnL

-$18.8

Record

64%

40342-23071 (63413)

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 28 top traders (36%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xe26a10cc...eb0d0f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793458200

Traders in this Market

uninformedfloww

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$851.48

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.7K

-$82.83

ply-pm0

CTR

Up — $0

-$945.44

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$262.28

BoneOhio

Down — $699.19

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$28.65

sfkjbsr457

Down — $472.83

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded