Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET

Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$204.58

Smart Money Signal

18 of 26 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,807

Combined PnL+$506.53

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares821

Combined PnL-$301.95

Up — 69%Down — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 87.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0.6	56% 14686-11561 (26247)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 53.9¢	$545.54	$1.0K	+$466.42	58% 38145-27331 (65476)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 83.8¢	$453.87	$426.98	-$26.89	50% 5432-5497 (10929)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 56.6¢	$268.53	$350	+$81.47	55% 8802-7251 (16053)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.6¢	$198	$350	+$152
└ Down leg	Downavg 11¢	$70.53	—	-$70.53
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 76.6¢	$275.54	$311.86	+$36.33	54% 8178-6875 (15053)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 47.6¢	$216.15	—	-$216.15	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$207.65	$207.86	+$0.21	59% 62464-43615 (106079)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 70.3¢	$200.12	$180	-$20.12	55% 15670-13048 (28718)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 77¢	$151.58	$127.37	-$24.21	66% 99355-51517 (150872)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 77.5¢	$133.2	$130	-$3.2	56% 13926-11039 (24965)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 58¢	$78.15	$88	+$9.85	60% 12403-8229 (20632)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 46.7¢	$72	—	-$72	35% 18950-35949 (54899)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 55.5¢	$65.63	$75.27	+$12.14	55% 7618-6237 (13855)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.5¢	$41.74	$75.27	+$33.26
└ Down leg	Downavg 48¢	$21.12	—	-$21.12
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 70.7¢	$40	$50.89	+$10.89	58% 60787-44362 (105149)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 68.4¢	$49.49	$43.92	+$12.2	64% 24039-13275 (37314)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 79.8¢	$26.35	$31	+$4.65	55% 45436-37823 (83259)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 57.7¢	$20.99	$29.9	+$8.91	56% 58346-45004 (103350)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 78¢	$28.28	$36.27	+$7.99	66% 126437-65111 (191548)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 59.6¢	$16.05	$26.92	+$10.87	55% 18044-14641 (32685)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 93¢	$12.35	$13.28	+$0.93	52% 90814-85344 (176158)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 53¢	$11.43	$21.57	+$10.14	59% 6923-4865 (11788)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$4.69	—	-$4.69	63% 52187-31091 (83278)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$4.18	—	-$4.18	58% 51142-37272 (88414)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 13¢	$4.05	—	-$4.05	74% 102799-36473 (139272)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.11	—	-$0.11	77% 9497-2916 (12413)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,068.43

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0.6

Record

56%

14686-11561 (26247)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$545.54

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$466.42

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

ply-pm0

Invested

$453.87

Value

$426.98

PnL

-$26.89

Record

50%

5432-5497 (10929)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$268.53

Value

$350

PnL

+$81.47

Record

55%

8802-7251 (16053)

Both legs:

Up$19856.6¢+$152

Down$70.5311¢-$70.53

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$275.54

Value

$311.86

PnL

+$36.33

Record

54%

8178-6875 (15053)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$216.15

Value

—

PnL

-$216.15

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

0x50f7

Invested

$207.65

Value

$207.86

PnL

+$0.21

Record

59%

62464-43615 (106079)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$200.12

Value

$180

PnL

-$20.12

Record

55%

15670-13048 (28718)

Bonereaper

Invested

$151.58

Value

$127.37

PnL

-$24.21

Record

66%

99355-51517 (150872)

GoodFallen

Invested

$133.2

Value

$130

PnL

-$3.2

Record

56%

13926-11039 (24965)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$78.15

Value

$88

PnL

+$9.85

Record

60%

12403-8229 (20632)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$72

Value

—

PnL

-$72

Record

35%

18950-35949 (54899)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$65.63

Value

$75.27

PnL

+$12.14

Record

55%

7618-6237 (13855)

Both legs:

Up$41.7455.5¢+$33.26

Down$21.1248¢-$21.12

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$40

Value

$50.89

PnL

+$10.89

Record

58%

60787-44362 (105149)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$49.49

Value

$43.92

PnL

+$12.2

Record

64%

24039-13275 (37314)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$26.35

Value

$31

PnL

+$4.65

Record

55%

45436-37823 (83259)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$20.99

Value

$29.9

PnL

+$8.91

Record

56%

58346-45004 (103350)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$28.28

Value

$36.27

PnL

+$7.99

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$16.05

Value

$26.92

PnL

+$10.87

Record

55%

18044-14641 (32685)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$12.35

Value

$13.28

PnL

+$0.93

Record

52%

90814-85344 (176158)

13897651<$100

Invested

$11.43

Value

$21.57

PnL

+$10.14

Record

59%

6923-4865 (11788)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.69

Value

—

PnL

-$4.69

Record

63%

52187-31091 (83278)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.18

Value

—

PnL

-$4.18

Record

58%

51142-37272 (88414)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.05

Value

—

PnL

-$4.05

Record

74%

102799-36473 (139272)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.11

Value

—

PnL

-$0.11

Record

77%

9497-2916 (12413)

Smart Money Signal

18 of 26 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x49e45fa3...a7a9a9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793457900

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.1K

+$0.6

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.0K

+$466.42

ply-pm0

Up — $426.98

-$26.89

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$81.47

sfkjbsr457

Up — $311.86

+$36.33

uninformedfloww

CTR

Down — $0

-$216.15

0x50f7

Up — $207.86

+$0.21

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $180

-$20.12

Bonereaper

Up — $127.37

-$24.21

GoodFallen

Up — $130

-$3.2

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