Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 69%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$469.68

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 27 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,043

Combined PnL+$633.68

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,037

Combined PnL-$164

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 78.5¢	$844.53	$1.1K	+$231.61	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 82.5¢	$549.96	$561.93	+$11.97	50% 5432-5497 (10929)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 82.6¢	$506.51	$590.86	+$84.35	56% 14686-11561 (26247)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 75¢	$440.35	$372.76	-$67.59	55% 15670-13048 (28718)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75¢	$279.53	$372.76	+$93.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.4¢	$160.82	—	-$160.82
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 72.5¢	$278.23	$382.16	+$103.93	58% 38145-27331 (65476)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 86.8¢	$287.62	$316.18	+$32.51	60% 12403-8229 (20632)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 76.8¢	$239.06	$180.99	-$58.06	55% 7618-6237 (13855)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.8¢	$138.93	$180.99	+$42.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.8¢	$100.13	—	-$100.13
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 77.8¢	$235.61	$155	-$80.61	56% 13926-11039 (24965)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.8¢	$120.55	$155	+$34.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.7¢	$115.06	—	-$115.06
HO hoodquant	Downavg 96¢	$200.64	$209	+$8.36	93% 23963-1799 (25762)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 85¢	$162.1	$164.49	+$2.39	54% 8178-6875 (15053)
BoneOhio	Downavg 71¢	$106.49	$149.98	+$43.5	74% 102799-36473 (139272)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 81.3¢	$114.96	$115.67	+$0.71	66% 99355-51517 (150872)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 11.6¢	$66.86	—	-$66.86	55% 8802-7251 (16053)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Downavg 78¢	$68.49	$74.99	+$6.5	62% 43985-26997 (70982)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78¢	$58.49	$74.99	+$16.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 5¢	$10	—	-$10
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 22¢	$105.89	$39.23	-$66.66	57% 12641-9708 (22349)
└ Up leg	Upavg 22¢	$77.09	—	-$77.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.4¢	$28.8	$39.23	+$10.43
ohioism<$100	Downavg 72¢	$75.74	$99.99	+$24.25	64% 40342-23071 (63413)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 51.8¢	$67.4	$130	+$62.6	56% 8126-6271 (14397)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 86.1¢	$54.06	$62.76	+$8.7	66% 126437-65111 (191548)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 74¢	$56.75	$73.38	+$16.63	59% 6923-4865 (11788)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 82.5¢	$35.75	$27.1	-$8.65	55% 24032-19415 (43447)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 15.5¢	$22.31	—	-$22.31	66% 112343-59004 (171347)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 75.9¢	$26.55	$35	+$8.45	35% 18950-35949 (54899)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 77.6¢	$21.7	$27.97	+$6.27	64% 24039-13275 (37314)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 29.4¢	$22.5	—	-$22.5	55% 18044-14641 (32685)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 7.9¢	$8.87	—	-$8.87	63% 52187-31091 (83278)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$844.53

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$231.61

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$549.96

Value

$561.93

PnL

+$11.97

Record

50%

5432-5497 (10929)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$506.51

Value

$590.86

PnL

+$84.35

Record

56%

14686-11561 (26247)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$440.35

Value

$372.76

PnL

-$67.59

Record

55%

15670-13048 (28718)

Both legs:

Down$279.5375¢+$93.23

Up$160.8221.4¢-$160.82

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$278.23

Value

$382.16

PnL

+$103.93

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$287.62

Value

$316.18

PnL

+$32.51

Record

60%

12403-8229 (20632)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$239.06

Value

$180.99

PnL

-$58.06

Record

55%

7618-6237 (13855)

Both legs:

Down$138.9376.8¢+$42.06

Up$100.1330.8¢-$100.13

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$235.61

Value

$155

PnL

-$80.61

Record

56%

13926-11039 (24965)

Both legs:

Down$120.5577.8¢+$34.45

Up$115.0626.7¢-$115.06

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$200.64

Value

$209

PnL

+$8.36

Record

93%

23963-1799 (25762)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$162.1

Value

$164.49

PnL

+$2.39

Record

54%

8178-6875 (15053)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$106.49

Value

$149.98

PnL

+$43.5

Record

74%

102799-36473 (139272)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$114.96

Value

$115.67

PnL

+$0.71

Record

66%

99355-51517 (150872)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$66.86

Value

—

PnL

-$66.86

Record

55%

8802-7251 (16053)

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Down

Invested

$68.49

Value

$74.99

PnL

+$6.5

Record

62%

43985-26997 (70982)

Both legs:

Down$58.4978¢+$16.5

Up$105¢-$10

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$105.89

Value

$39.23

PnL

-$66.66

Record

57%

12641-9708 (22349)

Both legs:

Up$77.0922¢-$77.09

Down$28.873.4¢+$10.43

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$75.74

Value

$99.99

PnL

+$24.25

Record

64%

40342-23071 (63413)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$67.4

Value

$130

PnL

+$62.6

Record

56%

8126-6271 (14397)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$54.06

Value

$62.76

PnL

+$8.7

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$56.75

Value

$73.38

PnL

+$16.63

Record

59%

6923-4865 (11788)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$35.75

Value

$27.1

PnL

-$8.65

Record

55%

24032-19415 (43447)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$22.31

Value

—

PnL

-$22.31

Record

66%

112343-59004 (171347)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$26.55

Value

$35

PnL

+$8.45

Record

35%

18950-35949 (54899)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$21.7

Value

$27.97

PnL

+$6.27

Record

64%

24039-13275 (37314)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$22.5

Value

—

PnL

-$22.5

Record

55%

18044-14641 (32685)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$8.87

Value

—

PnL

-$8.87

Record

63%

52187-31091 (83278)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 27 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x84935b1b...14d0ea

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793457600

Traders in this Market

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.1K

+$231.61

ply-pm0

Down — $561.93

+$11.97

CrouchPredictions

Down — $590.86

+$84.35

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$67.59

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $382.16

+$103.93

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $316.18

+$32.51

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Down — $209

+$8.36

sfkjbsr457

Down — $164.49

+$2.39

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