Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET

Resolved Up. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$236.71

Smart Money Signal

21 of 26 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,073

Combined PnL+$271.91

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares115

Combined PnL-$35.2

Up — 81%Down — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$1.27	59% 62464-43615 (106079)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 77.7¢	$513.98	$542.17	+$28.19	56% 14686-11561 (26247)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 82.5¢	$195.49	$220.85	+$25.36	66% 99355-51517 (150872)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 58.4¢	$220.26	$376.87	+$156.61	58% 38145-27331 (65476)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 79.8¢	$147.15	$137.62	-$9.53	50% 5432-5497 (10929)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 75.2¢	$130.63	$107.53	-$23.1	55% 15670-13048 (28718)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.2¢	$80.83	$107.53	+$26.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.6¢	$49.79	—	-$49.79
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 76.8¢	$94.36	$104.73	+$10.37	54% 8178-6875 (15053)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Upavg 81¢	$81.58	$90	+$8.42	56% 13926-11039 (24965)
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 81¢	$48.2	$50	+$1.8	55% 8802-7251 (16053)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 80.7¢	$46.07	$57.12	+$11.05	56% 58346-45004 (103350)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 72.8¢	$35.23	$48.37	+$13.14	66% 126437-65111 (191548)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 60¢	$25.41	$30.63	+$5.21	60% 12403-8229 (20632)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 87¢	$28.66	$29.98	+$1.32	57% 12641-9708 (22349)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 41¢	$22	—	-$22	35% 18950-35949 (54899)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 74.8¢	$19.1	$25.54	+$6.44	55% 18044-14641 (32685)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 84¢	$21	$25	+$4	64% 40342-23071 (63413)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 82.7¢	$15.54	$18.78	+$3.24	55% 7618-6237 (13855)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 88.5¢	$14.81	$13.39	-$1.42	52% 90814-85344 (176158)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 81¢	$12.17	$15.03	+$2.86	64% 24039-13275 (37314)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 99¢	$8.86	$5.75	-$3.11	46% 38360-45313 (83673)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 20¢	$5.25	—	-$5.25	58% 60787-44362 (105149)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 53¢	$5.3	$10	+$4.7	59% 6923-4865 (11788)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$4.7	—	-$4.7	58% 51142-37272 (88414)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$3.2	—	-$3.2	55% 24032-19415 (43447)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 60¢	$3	$5	+$2	55% 45436-37823 (83259)

0x50f7

Invested

$1,265.06

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$1.27

Record

59%

62464-43615 (106079)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$513.98

Value

$542.17

PnL

+$28.19

Record

56%

14686-11561 (26247)

Bonereaper

Invested

$195.49

Value

$220.85

PnL

+$25.36

Record

66%

99355-51517 (150872)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$220.26

Value

$376.87

PnL

+$156.61

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

ply-pm0

Invested

$147.15

Value

$137.62

PnL

-$9.53

Record

50%

5432-5497 (10929)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$130.63

Value

$107.53

PnL

-$23.1

Record

55%

15670-13048 (28718)

Both legs:

Up$80.8375.2¢+$26.7

Down$49.7922.6¢-$49.79

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$94.36

Value

$104.73

PnL

+$10.37

Record

54%

8178-6875 (15053)

GoodFallen<$100

Invested

$81.58

Value

$90

PnL

+$8.42

Record

56%

13926-11039 (24965)

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$48.2

Value

$50

PnL

+$1.8

Record

55%

8802-7251 (16053)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$46.07

Value

$57.12

PnL

+$11.05

Record

56%

58346-45004 (103350)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$35.23

Value

$48.37

PnL

+$13.14

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$25.41

Value

$30.63

PnL

+$5.21

Record

60%

12403-8229 (20632)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$28.66

Value

$29.98

PnL

+$1.32

Record

57%

12641-9708 (22349)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22

Value

—

PnL

-$22

Record

35%

18950-35949 (54899)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$19.1

Value

$25.54

PnL

+$6.44

Record

55%

18044-14641 (32685)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$25

PnL

+$4

Record

64%

40342-23071 (63413)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$15.54

Value

$18.78

PnL

+$3.24

Record

55%

7618-6237 (13855)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$14.81

Value

$13.39

PnL

-$1.42

Record

52%

90814-85344 (176158)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$12.17

Value

$15.03

PnL

+$2.86

Record

64%

24039-13275 (37314)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$8.86

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$3.11

Record

46%

38360-45313 (83673)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.25

Value

—

PnL

-$5.25

Record

58%

60787-44362 (105149)

13897651<$100

Invested

$5.3

Value

$10

PnL

+$4.7

Record

59%

6923-4865 (11788)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.7

Value

—

PnL

-$4.7

Record

58%

51142-37272 (88414)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.2

Value

—

PnL

-$3.2

Record

55%

24032-19415 (43447)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$2

Record

55%

45436-37823 (83259)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 26 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x67cb6540...da8b16

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793457300

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $1.3K

+$1.27

CrouchPredictions

Up — $542.17

+$28.19

Bonereaper

Up — $220.85

+$25.36

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $376.87

+$156.61

ply-pm0

Up — $137.62

-$9.53

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$23.1

sfkjbsr457

Up — $104.73

+$10.37

GoodFallen

Up — $90

+$8.42

machinelearned

Up — $50

+$1.8

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $57.12

+$11.05

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