Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 74%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$12.54

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 35 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down25 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares6,483

Combined PnL+$403.93

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,890

Combined PnL-$391.39

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 80.1¢	$911.67	$1.1K	+$226.73	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 89.8¢	$843.16	$886.98	+$43.83	56% 14686-11561 (26247)
machinelearned	Downavg 87.4¢	$690.42	$651.48	-$38.94	55% 8802-7251 (16053)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 70.7¢	$484.19	$495.63	+$11.44	50% 5432-5497 (10929)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 77.3¢	$487.35	$432.34	-$55.01	64% 58692-33276 (91968)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 72.5¢	$433.59	$430.06	-$3.53	55% 15670-13048 (28718)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 84.5¢	$431.27	$397.4	-$33.87	54% 8178-6875 (15053)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 76.9¢	$336.99	$408.87	+$71.89	66% 99355-51517 (150872)
SE seeeeeeb	Downavg 87.7¢	$352.84	$402.3	+$49.46	51% 751-709 (1460)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 80.2¢	$286.36	$301.79	+$19.19	60% 12403-8229 (20632)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 64.6¢	$302.19	—	-$302.19	58% 38145-27331 (65476)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 62.6¢	$192.22	$235.09	+$42.87	56% 13926-11039 (24965)
pspspsps5	Downavg 78.8¢	$169.07	$214.68	+$45.6	46% 38360-45313 (83673)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 59.8¢	$164.56	$164.2	-$0.36	57% 12641-9708 (22349)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.8¢	$98.25	$164.2	+$65.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.3¢	$66.31	—	-$66.31
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 86.1¢	$151.77	$137.44	-$14.33	55% 7618-6237 (13855)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97¢	$106.75	$110	+$3.25	93% 23963-1799 (25762)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 86.8¢	$83.29	$79.96	-$0.95	64% 24039-13275 (37314)
CO CongoleseBoratCTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$16.65	—	-$16.65	56% 49-39 (88)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 55.4¢	$39.12	—	-$39.12	56% 8126-6271 (14397)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 79.9¢	$28.18	$35.27	+$7.09	66% 126437-65111 (191548)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 61.6¢	$20.68	$25	+$4.32	55% 45436-37823 (83259)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 88.1¢	$24.85	$28.2	+$3.35	56% 58346-45004 (103350)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 3.4¢	$8.87	—	-$8.87	59% 62464-43615 (106079)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 36.9¢	$5.85	$15.83	+$9.98	58% 60787-44362 (105149)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 3.4¢	$5.79	—	-$5.79	63% 52187-31091 (83278)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$911.67

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$226.73

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$843.16

Value

$886.98

PnL

+$43.83

Record

56%

14686-11561 (26247)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$690.42

Value

$651.48

PnL

-$38.94

Record

55%

8802-7251 (16053)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$484.19

Value

$495.63

PnL

+$11.44

Record

50%

5432-5497 (10929)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$487.35

Value

$432.34

PnL

-$55.01

Record

64%

58692-33276 (91968)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$433.59

Value

$430.06

PnL

-$3.53

Record

55%

15670-13048 (28718)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$431.27

Value

$397.4

PnL

-$33.87

Record

54%

8178-6875 (15053)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$336.99

Value

$408.87

PnL

+$71.89

Record

66%

99355-51517 (150872)

seeeeeeb

Down

Invested

$352.84

Value

$402.3

PnL

+$49.46

Record

51%

751-709 (1460)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$286.36

Value

$301.79

PnL

+$19.19

Record

60%

12403-8229 (20632)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$302.19

Value

—

PnL

-$302.19

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$192.22

Value

$235.09

PnL

+$42.87

Record

56%

13926-11039 (24965)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$169.07

Value

$214.68

PnL

+$45.6

Record

46%

38360-45313 (83673)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$164.56

Value

$164.2

PnL

-$0.36

Record

57%

12641-9708 (22349)

Both legs:

Down$98.2559.8¢+$65.95

Up$66.3137.3¢-$66.31

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$151.77

Value

$137.44

PnL

-$14.33

Record

55%

7618-6237 (13855)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$106.75

Value

$110

PnL

+$3.25

Record

93%

23963-1799 (25762)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$83.29

Value

$79.96

PnL

-$0.95

Record

64%

24039-13275 (37314)

CongoleseBoratCTR<$100

Invested

$16.65

Value

—

PnL

-$16.65

Record

56%

49-39 (88)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$39.12

Value

—

PnL

-$39.12

Record

56%

8126-6271 (14397)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$28.18

Value

$35.27

PnL

+$7.09

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$20.68

Value

$25

PnL

+$4.32

Record

55%

45436-37823 (83259)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$24.85

Value

$28.2

PnL

+$3.35

Record

56%

58346-45004 (103350)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$8.87

Value

—

PnL

-$8.87

Record

59%

62464-43615 (106079)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$5.85

Value

$15.83

PnL

+$9.98

Record

58%

60787-44362 (105149)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$5.79

Value

—

PnL

-$5.79

Record

63%

52187-31091 (83278)

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 35 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xf2f9b664...b0154c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793456700

Traders in this Market

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.1K

+$226.73

CrouchPredictions

Down — $886.98

+$43.83

machinelearned

Down — $651.48

-$38.94

ply-pm0

Down — $495.63

+$11.44

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $432.34

-$55.01

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $430.06

-$3.53

sfkjbsr457

Down — $397.4

-$33.87

Bonereaper

Down — $408.87

+$71.89

seeeeeeb

Down — $402.3

+$49.46

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $301.79

+$19.19

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