Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 52%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$688.44

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 26 top traders (54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,337

Combined PnL+$322.14

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,731

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Down — 54%Up — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 71¢	$578.8	$598.25	+$19.44	56% 14686-11561 (26247)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 61.8¢	$590.95	$591.74	+$0.79	58% 38145-27331 (65476)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.8¢	$365.42	$591.74	+$226.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.1¢	$225.53	—	-$225.53
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 68.3¢	$416.1	$361.68	-$54.42	50% 5432-5497 (10929)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 37.3¢	$501.57	—	-$501.57	55% 15670-13048 (28718)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 76.1¢	$231.97	$282.53	+$50.56	66% 99355-51517 (150872)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 67.8¢	$206.95	$266.99	+$60.04	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 42.8¢	$235.46	—	-$235.46	56% 13926-11039 (24965)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 55¢	$110.27	$160.14	+$49.88	55% 7618-6237 (13855)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 75¢	$154.01	$143.03	-$10.98	54% 8178-6875 (15053)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 78.8¢	$151.2	$118.73	-$32.47	60% 12403-8229 (20632)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 25.9¢	$40.51	$156.25	+$115.74	66% 112343-59004 (171347)
pspspsps5	Downavg 25.8¢	$41.2	$135.33	+$94.13	46% 38360-45313 (83673)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 56.5¢	$92.72	—	-$92.72	59% 6923-4865 (11788)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 61.7¢	$80.87	$76.64	-$4.23	55% 8802-7251 (16053)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.7¢	$47.32	$76.64	+$29.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 30¢	$33.56	—	-$33.56
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 35.7¢	$88.76	$37.14	-$51.61	64% 58692-33276 (91968)
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.7¢	$65.61	—	-$65.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.3¢	$23.14	$37.14	+$14
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Upavg 44.2¢	$69.95	—	-$69.95	57% 12641-9708 (22349)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 41.8¢	$26.95	$41.16	+$14.21	62% 43985-26997 (70982)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 70¢	$28.5	$25	-$3.5	64% 40342-23071 (63413)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 68.2¢	$18.9	$27.71	+$8.81	55% 18044-14641 (32685)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Upavg 64.1¢	$25.51	—	-$25.51	65% 4143-2256 (6399)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 13¢	$6.15	—	-$6.15	63% 52187-31091 (83278)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 63.6¢	$38.16	—	-$34.81	64% 24039-13275 (37314)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 46.5¢	$9.3	$20	+$10.7	58% 51142-37272 (88414)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 25¢	$2.52	—	-$2.52	52% 90814-85344 (176158)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 9.1¢	$15.34	—	-$15.34	77% 9497-2916 (12413)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$578.8

Value

$598.25

PnL

+$19.44

Record

56%

14686-11561 (26247)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$590.95

Value

$591.74

PnL

+$0.79

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

Both legs:

Down$365.4261.8¢+$226.32

Up$225.5346.1¢-$225.53

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$416.1

Value

$361.68

PnL

-$54.42

Record

50%

5432-5497 (10929)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$501.57

Value

—

PnL

-$501.57

Record

55%

15670-13048 (28718)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$231.97

Value

$282.53

PnL

+$50.56

Record

66%

99355-51517 (150872)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$206.95

Value

$266.99

PnL

+$60.04

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$235.46

Value

—

PnL

-$235.46

Record

56%

13926-11039 (24965)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$110.27

Value

$160.14

PnL

+$49.88

Record

55%

7618-6237 (13855)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$154.01

Value

$143.03

PnL

-$10.98

Record

54%

8178-6875 (15053)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$151.2

Value

$118.73

PnL

-$32.47

Record

60%

12403-8229 (20632)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$40.51

Value

$156.25

PnL

+$115.74

Record

66%

112343-59004 (171347)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$41.2

Value

$135.33

PnL

+$94.13

Record

46%

38360-45313 (83673)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$92.72

Value

—

PnL

-$92.72

Record

59%

6923-4865 (11788)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$80.87

Value

$76.64

PnL

-$4.23

Record

55%

8802-7251 (16053)

Both legs:

Down$47.3261.7¢+$29.32

Up$33.5630¢-$33.56

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$88.76

Value

$37.14

PnL

-$51.61

Record

64%

58692-33276 (91968)

Both legs:

Up$65.6135.7¢-$65.61

Down$23.1462.3¢+$14

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Invested

$69.95

Value

—

PnL

-$69.95

Record

57%

12641-9708 (22349)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$26.95

Value

$41.16

PnL

+$14.21

Record

62%

43985-26997 (70982)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$28.5

Value

$25

PnL

-$3.5

Record

64%

40342-23071 (63413)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$18.9

Value

$27.71

PnL

+$8.81

Record

55%

18044-14641 (32685)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Invested

$25.51

Value

—

PnL

-$25.51

Record

65%

4143-2256 (6399)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$6.15

Value

—

PnL

-$6.15

Record

63%

52187-31091 (83278)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$38.16

Value

—

PnL

-$34.81

Record

64%

24039-13275 (37314)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$9.3

Value

$20

PnL

+$10.7

Record

58%

51142-37272 (88414)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$2.52

Value

—

PnL

-$2.52

Record

52%

90814-85344 (176158)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$15.34

Value

—

PnL

-$15.34

Record

77%

9497-2916 (12413)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 26 top traders (54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xdb925019...bd0a57

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793456400

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Down — $598.25

+$19.44

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$0.79

ply-pm0

Down — $361.68

-$54.42

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Up — $0

-$501.57

Bonereaper

Down — $282.53

+$50.56

uninformedfloww

Down — $266.99

+$60.04

GoodFallen

CTR

Up — $0

-$235.46

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $160.14

+$49.88

sfkjbsr457

Down — $143.03

-$10.98

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $118.73

-$32.47

Trade on Polymarket