Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET

Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 74%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$95.49

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 20 top traders (70%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,739

Combined PnL+$211.7

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,476

Combined PnL-$116.21

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$15.13	59% 62464-43615 (106079)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 88.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$68.81	56% 14686-11561 (26247)
└ Down leg	Downavg 88.1¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$160.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 8.5¢	$91.6	—	-$91.6
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 1.1¢	$19.48	—	-$19.48	63% 52187-31091 (83278)
VE Vega7CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$15	—	-$15	73% 2943-1068 (4011)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 86.4¢	$407.15	$426.07	+$18.92	50% 5432-5497 (10929)
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.3¢	$39.11	—	-$39.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 86.4¢	$368.04	$426.07	+$58.02
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 94.6¢	$311.83	$284.61	-$27.22	64% 58692-33276 (91968)
└ Up leg	Upavg 8.7¢	$42.55	—	-$42.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 94.6¢	$269.28	$284.61	+$15.33
AS asabovesobelow2CTR<$100	Upavg 2.1¢	$15	—	-$15	69% 1657-757 (2414)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 90¢	$301.53	$311.55	+$10.02	55% 8802-7251 (16053)
└ Up leg	Upavg 5.6¢	$21.19	—	-$21.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 90¢	$280.34	$311.55	+$31.2
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Upavg 8.5¢	$66.35	—	-$66.35	66% 99355-51517 (150872)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 83.3¢	$218.59	$239.29	+$20.7	60% 12403-8229 (20632)
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.3¢	$199.32	$239.29	+$39.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.6¢	$19.27	—	-$19.27
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 87.1¢	$232.08	$216.99	-$15.08	55% 7618-6237 (13855)
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.1¢	$188.95	$216.99	+$28.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.9¢	$43.12	—	-$43.12
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 78.1¢	$209.48	$222.76	+$13.28	55% 15670-13048 (28718)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.1¢	$173.9	$222.76	+$48.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 24¢	$35.58	—	-$35.58
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Downavg 91.4¢	$211.48	$214.43	+$2.96	54% 8178-6875 (15053)
└ Down leg	Downavg 91.4¢	$196.02	$214.43	+$18.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.9¢	$15.46	—	-$15.46
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.4¢	$361.18	$367	+$5.82	93% 23963-1799 (25762)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 67.4¢	$140.7	$208.74	+$68.04	56% 8126-6271 (14397)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 71.1¢	$65.63	$65.56	-$0.07	56% 13926-11039 (24965)
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.5¢	$19	—	-$19
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.1¢	$46.63	$65.56	+$18.94
pspspsps5	Downavg 96.9¢	$179.28	$185.06	+$5.78	46% 38360-45313 (83673)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 92.6¢	$31.45	$32.81	+$1.36	52% 90814-85344 (176158)
13 13897651	Downavg 61.7¢	$67.97	$110.13	+$42.16	59% 6923-4865 (11788)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 76.6¢	$81.11	$105.92	+$24.81	57% 12641-9708 (22349)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 81.4¢	$46.59	$57.23	+$10.64	66% 126437-65111 (191548)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 94.5¢	$51.04	$54	+$2.96	55% 45436-37823 (83259)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 71¢	$32.83	$46.24	+$13.41	58% 38145-27331 (65476)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 65.1¢	$27.33	$42	+$14.67	35% 18950-35949 (54899)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.38	—	-$0.38	77% 9497-2916 (12413)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$1,498.04

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$15.13

Record

59%

62464-43615 (106079)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,274.01

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$68.81

Record

56%

14686-11561 (26247)

Both legs:

Down$1,182.4288.1¢+$160.41

Up$91.68.5¢-$91.6

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$19.48

Value

—

PnL

-$19.48

Record

63%

52187-31091 (83278)

Vega7CTR<$100

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

73%

2943-1068 (4011)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$407.15

Value

$426.07

PnL

+$18.92

Record

50%

5432-5497 (10929)

Both legs:

Up$39.119.3¢-$39.11

Down$368.0486.4¢+$58.02

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$311.83

Value

$284.61

PnL

-$27.22

Record

64%

58692-33276 (91968)

Both legs:

Up$42.558.7¢-$42.55

Down$269.2894.6¢+$15.33

asabovesobelow2CTR<$100

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

69%

1657-757 (2414)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$301.53

Value

$311.55

PnL

+$10.02

Record

55%

8802-7251 (16053)

Both legs:

Up$21.195.6¢-$21.19

Down$280.3490¢+$31.2

BonereaperCTR<$100

Invested

$66.35

Value

—

PnL

-$66.35

Record

66%

99355-51517 (150872)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$218.59

Value

$239.29

PnL

+$20.7

Record

60%

12403-8229 (20632)

Both legs:

Down$199.3283.3¢+$39.97

Up$19.279.6¢-$19.27

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$232.08

Value

$216.99

PnL

-$15.08

Record

55%

7618-6237 (13855)

Both legs:

Down$188.9587.1¢+$28.04

Up$43.1223.9¢-$43.12

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$209.48

Value

$222.76

PnL

+$13.28

Record

55%

15670-13048 (28718)

Both legs:

Down$173.978.1¢+$48.86

Up$35.5824¢-$35.58

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$211.48

Value

$214.43

PnL

+$2.96

Record

54%

8178-6875 (15053)

Both legs:

Down$196.0291.4¢+$18.41

Up$15.469.9¢-$15.46

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$361.18

Value

$367

PnL

+$5.82

Record

93%

23963-1799 (25762)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$140.7

Value

$208.74

PnL

+$68.04

Record

56%

8126-6271 (14397)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$65.63

Value

$65.56

PnL

-$0.07

Record

56%

13926-11039 (24965)

Both legs:

Up$1915.5¢-$19

Down$46.6371.1¢+$18.94

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$179.28

Value

$185.06

PnL

+$5.78

Record

46%

38360-45313 (83673)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$31.45

Value

$32.81

PnL

+$1.36

Record

52%

90814-85344 (176158)

13897651

Down

Invested

$67.97

Value

$110.13

PnL

+$42.16

Record

59%

6923-4865 (11788)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$81.11

Value

$105.92

PnL

+$24.81

Record

57%

12641-9708 (22349)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$46.59

Value

$57.23

PnL

+$10.64

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$51.04

Value

$54

PnL

+$2.96

Record

55%

45436-37823 (83259)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$32.83

Value

$46.24

PnL

+$13.41

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$27.33

Value

$42

PnL

+$14.67

Record

35%

18950-35949 (54899)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$0.38

Value

—

PnL

-$0.38

Record

77%

9497-2916 (12413)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 20 top traders (70%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7d63cd3c...6ceb47

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793456100

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $1.5K

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

UpandDownSyndrome

Up — $0

Vega7

Up — $0

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

asabovesobelow2

Up — $0

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Up — $0

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$20.7

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