Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Signal

17 of 28 top traders (61%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,535

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Down11 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,364

Combined PnL+$611.07

Up — 61%Down — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 76¢	$973.6	—	-$973.6	56% 14669-11554 (26223)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 54¢	$659.46	$742.85	+$83.39	55% 15663-13037 (28700)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54¢	$372.21	—	-$372.21
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.7¢	$287.25	$742.85	+$455.61
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 47.7¢	$545	—	-$545	50% 5420-5490 (10910)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 38.8¢	$390.55	$563.61	+$173.06	56% 13916-11031 (24947)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.5¢	$172	—	-$172
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.8¢	$218.55	$563.61	+$345.06
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 30.4¢	$213.4	—	-$213.4	77% 9493-2907 (12400)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 51.4¢	$392.83	$425.48	+$32.65	55% 7605-6229 (13834)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.5¢	$174.03	—	-$174.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.4¢	$218.81	$425.48	+$206.67
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 17.2¢	$91.02	—	-$91.02	64% 58688-33274 (91962)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 2.5¢	$8.18	—	-$8.18	63% 52172-31048 (83220)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 77.6¢	$282.94	—	-$282.94	55% 8787-7245 (16032)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR	Upavg 55.6¢	$285.18	—	-$285.18	60% 12392-8220 (20612)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 60.5¢	$250.29	$250.27	-$0.02	57% 12630-9701 (22331)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54¢	$98.89	—	-$98.89
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.5¢	$151.4	$250.27	+$98.87
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 76.1¢	$262.23	$269.62	+$7.38	54% 8165-6865 (15030)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.1¢	$131.96	—	-$131.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.3¢	$130.27	$269.62	+$139.35
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 52.7¢	$267.85	$350.37	+$82.52	66% 99292-51478 (150770)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.4¢	$83.35	—	-$83.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.7¢	$184.5	$350.37	+$165.87
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 54.2¢	$137.65	$254.13	+$116.48	58% 38135-27322 (65457)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 92¢	$92	—	-$92	74% 102693-36455 (139148)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97¢	$427.77	$441	+$13.23	93% 23943-1796 (25739)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$44.1	—	-$44.1	64% 40317-23061 (63378)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 48.6¢	$73.4	$150.92	+$77.53	58% 51123-37260 (88383)
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324	Downavg 11¢	$24.42	$222	+$197.58	51% 881-855 (1736)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 85.7¢	$55.9	$132.26	+$76.36	46% 38341-45284 (83625)
└ Up leg	Upavg 85.7¢	$40.37	—	-$40.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 11.7¢	$15.53	$132.26	+$116.73
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 48.7¢	$49.72	—	-$49.72	55% 24022-19407 (43429)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 93.6¢	$146.11	$115.3	-$30.81	66% 126396-65094 (191490)
└ Up leg	Upavg 90.2¢	$38.21	—	-$38.21
└ Down leg	Downavg 93.6¢	$107.9	$115.3	+$7.4
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 82.8¢	$49.77	—	-$48.41	64% 23991-13230 (37221)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 42.8¢	$37.62	$60	+$22.38	56% 8113-6259 (14372)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$23.77	—	-$23.77	62% 43966-26982 (70948)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$973.6

Value

—

PnL

-$973.6

Record

56%

14669-11554 (26223)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$659.46

Value

$742.85

PnL

+$83.39

Record

55%

15663-13037 (28700)

Both legs:

Up$372.2154¢-$372.21

Down$287.2538.7¢+$455.61

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$545

Value

—

PnL

-$545

Record

50%

5420-5490 (10910)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$390.55

Value

$563.61

PnL

+$173.06

Record

56%

13916-11031 (24947)

Both legs:

Up$17251.5¢-$172

Down$218.5538.8¢+$345.06

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$213.4

Value

—

PnL

-$213.4

Record

77%

9493-2907 (12400)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$392.83

Value

$425.48

PnL

+$32.65

Record

55%

7605-6229 (13834)

Both legs:

Up$174.0353.5¢-$174.03

Down$218.8151.4¢+$206.67

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$91.02

Value

—

PnL

-$91.02

Record

64%

58688-33274 (91962)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$8.18

Value

—

PnL

-$8.18

Record

63%

52172-31048 (83220)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$282.94

Value

—

PnL

-$282.94

Record

55%

8787-7245 (16032)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR

Invested

$285.18

Value

—

PnL

-$285.18

Record

60%

12392-8220 (20612)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$250.29

Value

$250.27

PnL

-$0.02

Record

57%

12630-9701 (22331)

Both legs:

Up$98.8954¢-$98.89

Down$151.460.5¢+$98.87

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$262.23

Value

$269.62

PnL

+$7.38

Record

54%

8165-6865 (15030)

Both legs:

Up$131.9676.1¢-$131.96

Down$130.2748.3¢+$139.35

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$267.85

Value

$350.37

PnL

+$82.52

Record

66%

99292-51478 (150770)

Both legs:

Up$83.3565.4¢-$83.35

Down$184.552.7¢+$165.87

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$137.65

Value

$254.13

PnL

+$116.48

Record

58%

38135-27322 (65457)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$92

Value

—

PnL

-$92

Record

74%

102693-36455 (139148)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$427.77

Value

$441

PnL

+$13.23

Record

93%

23943-1796 (25739)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$44.1

Value

—

PnL

-$44.1

Record

64%

40317-23061 (63378)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$73.4

Value

$150.92

PnL

+$77.53

Record

58%

51123-37260 (88383)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

Down

Invested

$24.42

Value

$222

PnL

+$197.58

Record

51%

881-855 (1736)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$55.9

Value

$132.26

PnL

+$76.36

Record

46%

38341-45284 (83625)

Both legs:

Up$40.3785.7¢-$40.37

Down$15.5311.7¢+$116.73

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$49.72

Value

—

PnL

-$49.72

Record

55%

24022-19407 (43429)

asdaefefARB<$100

Down

Invested

$146.11

Value

$115.3

PnL

-$30.81

Record

66%

126396-65094 (191490)

Both legs:

Up$38.2190.2¢-$38.21

Down$107.993.6¢+$7.4

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$49.77

Value

—

PnL

-$48.41

Record

64%

23991-13230 (37221)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$37.62

Value

$60

PnL

+$22.38

Record

56%

8113-6259 (14372)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$23.77

Value

—

PnL

-$23.77

Record

62%

43966-26982 (70948)

Smart Money Signal

17 of 28 top traders (61%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc8e8ab49...7152c4

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793455800

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

CTR

Up — $0

-$973.6

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Up — $0

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Up — $0

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0

UpandDownSyndrome

Up — $0

machinelearned

Up — $0

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

CTR

Up — $0

-$285.18

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