Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 56%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

-$799.69

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 27 top traders (52%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,772

Combined PnL+$4.92

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,991

Combined PnL-$804.61

Down — 52%Up — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 64¢	$888.95	$740	-$148.95	51% 17185-16689 (33874)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64¢	$473.24	$740	+$266.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.7¢	$415.71	—	-$415.71
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 66.7¢	$709.44	$552.45	-$156.99	56% 14669-11554 (26223)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 51.2¢	$556.93	$553.85	-$3.07	55% 15663-13037 (28700)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 37.5¢	$338.27	$352.37	+$14.1	50% 5420-5490 (10910)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.7¢	$143.29	$352.37	+$209.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.5¢	$194.98	—	-$194.98
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 48.7¢	$314.78	$333.99	+$19.21	56% 13916-11031 (24947)
0X 0x50f7CTR	Upavg 7¢	$106.08	—	-$106.08	59% 62455-43604 (106059)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 66.6¢	$206.59	$202.98	-$3.6	54% 8165-6865 (15030)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Upavg 66.6¢	$239.58	—	-$239.58	55% 7605-6229 (13834)
machinelearned	Downavg 38¢	$149.54	$200	+$50.46	55% 8787-7245 (16032)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 81.6¢	$193.41	$182.09	-$11.32	60% 12392-8220 (20612)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 40.6¢	$108.55	$144.65	+$36.1	64% 58688-33274 (91962)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.6¢	$58.76	$144.65	+$85.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.7¢	$49.8	—	-$49.8
BoneOhio	Downavg 92¢	$174.8	$150	-$24.8	74% 102693-36455 (139148)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 29.3¢	$160.61	$84.86	-$75.75	66% 99292-51478 (150770)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.1¢	$51.88	$84.86	+$32.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.3¢	$108.73	—	-$108.73
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 65¢	$161.15	$247.97	+$86.82	58% 38135-27322 (65457)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 48.8¢	$251.43	$461.41	+$209.98	57% 12630-9701 (22331)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.5¢	$26.07	—	-$26.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.8¢	$225.36	$461.41	+$236.05
LI Little-bigCTR	Upavg 46.8¢	$116.38	—	-$116.38	35% 18938-35934 (54872)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 92.5¢	$116.27	$101.85	-$14.42	66% 126396-65094 (191490)
DV dvasdkasodk	Downavg 91.9¢	$111.14	$95.61	-$15.53	52% 90788-85318 (176106)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 1.4¢	$6.96	—	-$6.96	63% 52172-31048 (83220)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Upavg 69.7¢	$242.57	$25.53	-$217.04	56% 58323-44993 (103316)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.7¢	$231	—	-$231
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.3¢	$11.57	$25.53	+$13.96
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$61.2	—	-$61.2	56% 8113-6259 (14372)
ohioismCTR	Upavg 60.3¢	$200.04	—	-$200.04	64% 40317-23061 (63378)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 39.4¢	$26.98	$68.51	+$41.54	46% 38341-45284 (83625)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	$13.91	—	-$13.91	58% 60765-44349 (105114)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 79¢	$21.14	$21	-$0.14	55% 45398-37789 (83187)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$888.95

Value

$740

PnL

-$148.95

Record

51%

17185-16689 (33874)

Both legs:

Down$473.2464¢+$266.76

Up$415.7140.7¢-$415.71

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$709.44

Value

$552.45

PnL

-$156.99

Record

56%

14669-11554 (26223)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$556.93

Value

$553.85

PnL

-$3.07

Record

55%

15663-13037 (28700)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$338.27

Value

$352.37

PnL

+$14.1

Record

50%

5420-5490 (10910)

Both legs:

Down$143.2940.7¢+$209.08

Up$194.9837.5¢-$194.98

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$314.78

Value

$333.99

PnL

+$19.21

Record

56%

13916-11031 (24947)

0x50f7CTR

Invested

$106.08

Value

—

PnL

-$106.08

Record

59%

62455-43604 (106059)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$206.59

Value

$202.98

PnL

-$3.6

Record

54%

8165-6865 (15030)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Invested

$239.58

Value

—

PnL

-$239.58

Record

55%

7605-6229 (13834)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$149.54

Value

$200

PnL

+$50.46

Record

55%

8787-7245 (16032)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$193.41

Value

$182.09

PnL

-$11.32

Record

60%

12392-8220 (20612)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$108.55

Value

$144.65

PnL

+$36.1

Record

64%

58688-33274 (91962)

Both legs:

Down$58.7640.6¢+$85.89

Up$49.818.7¢-$49.8

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$174.8

Value

$150

PnL

-$24.8

Record

74%

102693-36455 (139148)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$160.61

Value

$84.86

PnL

-$75.75

Record

66%

99292-51478 (150770)

Both legs:

Down$51.8861.1¢+$32.98

Up$108.7329.3¢-$108.73

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$161.15

Value

$247.97

PnL

+$86.82

Record

58%

38135-27322 (65457)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$251.43

Value

$461.41

PnL

+$209.98

Record

57%

12630-9701 (22331)

Both legs:

Up$26.0737.5¢-$26.07

Down$225.3648.8¢+$236.05

Little-bigCTR

Invested

$116.38

Value

—

PnL

-$116.38

Record

35%

18938-35934 (54872)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$116.27

Value

$101.85

PnL

-$14.42

Record

66%

126396-65094 (191490)

dvasdkasodk

Down

Invested

$111.14

Value

$95.61

PnL

-$15.53

Record

52%

90788-85318 (176106)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$6.96

Value

—

PnL

-$6.96

Record

63%

52172-31048 (83220)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Invested

$242.57

Value

$25.53

PnL

-$217.04

Record

56%

58323-44993 (103316)

Both legs:

Up$23169.7¢-$231

Down$11.5745.3¢+$13.96

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$61.2

Value

—

PnL

-$61.2

Record

56%

8113-6259 (14372)

ohioismCTR

Invested

$200.04

Value

—

PnL

-$200.04

Record

64%

40317-23061 (63378)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$26.98

Value

$68.51

PnL

+$41.54

Record

46%

38341-45284 (83625)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$13.91

Value

—

PnL

-$13.91

Record

58%

60765-44349 (105114)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$21.14

Value

$21

PnL

-$0.14

Record

55%

45398-37789 (83187)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 27 top traders (52%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5207fa71...85604b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793455500

Traders in this Market

gansinimen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$148.95

CrouchPredictions

Down — $552.45

-$156.99

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $553.85

-$3.07

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$14.1

GoodFallen

Down — $333.99

+$19.21

0x50f7

CTR

Up — $0

-$106.08

sfkjbsr457

Down — $202.98

-$3.6

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

CTR

Up — $0

-$239.58

machinelearned

Down — $200

+$50.46

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $182.09

-$11.32

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