Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET

Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 66%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$108.26

Smart Money Signal

19 of 30 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares5,581

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,611

Combined PnL-$901.77

Up — 63%Down — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 50.9¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$130.25	56% 14669-11554 (26223)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$712.93	$481.35	-$231.58	55% 15663-13037 (28700)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.2¢	$251.23	$481.35	+$230.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.5¢	$461.69	—	-$461.69
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 69.8¢	$525.16	$489.09	-$36.08	50% 5420-5490 (10910)
machinelearned	Upavg 63.1¢	$394.53	$452.76	+$58.23	55% 8787-7245 (16032)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 45.2¢	$308.56	$368.07	+$59.51	64% 58688-33274 (91962)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.2¢	$166.19	$368.07	+$201.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 28¢	$142.37	—	-$142.37
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 70.5¢	$446.56	$411.51	-$35.05	60% 12392-8220 (20612)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 76.3¢	$356.69	—	-$356.69	66% 99292-51478 (150770)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 46.3¢	$357.24	$290.66	-$66.57	56% 13916-11031 (24947)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.5¢	$135.02	$290.66	+$155.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.3¢	$222.22	—	-$222.22
pspspsps5	Upavg 47.1¢	$146.82	$311.95	+$165.13	46% 38341-45284 (83625)
BoneOhio	Upavg 82.9¢	$253.49	$305.81	+$52.32	74% 102693-36455 (139148)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 1.2¢	$16.7	—	-$16.7	63% 52172-31048 (83220)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Downavg 43.2¢	$173.71	—	-$172.11	55% 7605-6229 (13834)
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 49.4¢	$123.35	—	-$123.35	57% 12630-9701 (22331)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 88¢	$170.22	$193.48	+$23.26	56% 58323-44993 (103316)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 48¢	$564.51	$1.2K	+$612.73	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 43.4¢	$83.5	—	-$83.5	35% 18938-35934 (54872)
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100	Downavg 54¢	$72.9	—	-$72.9	51% 746-706 (1452)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 63.8¢	$381.38	$42.46	-$45.33	54% 8165-6865 (15030)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 92.5¢	$45.81	$49.54	+$3.73	52% 90788-85318 (176106)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 63.8¢	$76.28	$41.92	-$25.69	64% 23991-13230 (37221)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 48.9¢	$34.2	—	-$34.2	58% 51123-37260 (88383)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 81.6¢	$245.99	$301.28	+$55.3	62% 43966-26982 (70948)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 96.2¢	$35.11	$33.9	-$1.21	64% 40317-23061 (63378)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 79.5¢	$79.1	$77.22	-$1.88	66% 126396-65094 (191490)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$22.5	—	-$22.5	59% 6915-4856 (11771)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,436.09

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$130.25

Record

56%

14669-11554 (26223)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$712.93

Value

$481.35

PnL

-$231.58

Record

55%

15663-13037 (28700)

Both legs:

Up$251.2352.2¢+$230.11

Down$461.6951.5¢-$461.69

ply-pm0

Invested

$525.16

Value

$489.09

PnL

-$36.08

Record

50%

5420-5490 (10910)

machinelearned

Invested

$394.53

Value

$452.76

PnL

+$58.23

Record

55%

8787-7245 (16032)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$308.56

Value

$368.07

PnL

+$59.51

Record

64%

58688-33274 (91962)

Both legs:

Up$166.1945.2¢+$201.88

Down$142.3728¢-$142.37

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$446.56

Value

$411.51

PnL

-$35.05

Record

60%

12392-8220 (20612)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$356.69

Value

—

PnL

-$356.69

Record

66%

99292-51478 (150770)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$357.24

Value

$290.66

PnL

-$66.57

Record

56%

13916-11031 (24947)

Both legs:

Up$135.0246.5¢+$155.65

Down$222.2246.3¢-$222.22

pspspsps5

Invested

$146.82

Value

$311.95

PnL

+$165.13

Record

46%

38341-45284 (83625)

BoneOhio

Invested

$253.49

Value

$305.81

PnL

+$52.32

Record

74%

102693-36455 (139148)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.7

Value

—

PnL

-$16.7

Record

63%

52172-31048 (83220)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Down

Invested

$173.71

Value

—

PnL

-$172.11

Record

55%

7605-6229 (13834)

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$123.35

Value

—

PnL

-$123.35

Record

57%

12630-9701 (22331)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$170.22

Value

$193.48

PnL

+$23.26

Record

56%

58323-44993 (103316)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$564.51

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$612.73

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$83.5

Value

—

PnL

-$83.5

Record

35%

18938-35934 (54872)

seeeeeebCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$72.9

Value

—

PnL

-$72.9

Record

51%

746-706 (1452)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$381.38

Value

$42.46

PnL

-$45.33

Record

54%

8165-6865 (15030)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$45.81

Value

$49.54

PnL

+$3.73

Record

52%

90788-85318 (176106)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$76.28

Value

$41.92

PnL

-$25.69

Record

64%

23991-13230 (37221)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.2

Value

—

PnL

-$34.2

Record

58%

51123-37260 (88383)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$245.99

Value

$301.28

PnL

+$55.3

Record

62%

43966-26982 (70948)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$35.11

Value

$33.9

PnL

-$1.21

Record

64%

40317-23061 (63378)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$79.1

Value

$77.22

PnL

-$1.88

Record

66%

126396-65094 (191490)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.5

Value

—

PnL

-$22.5

Record

59%

6915-4856 (11771)

Smart Money Signal

19 of 30 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x50fe9131...fddee2

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793455200

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.6K

+$130.25

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$231.58

ply-pm0

Up — $489.09

-$36.08

machinelearned

Up — $452.76

+$58.23

Polkadot-Frog

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$59.51

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $411.51

Bonereaper

Down — $0

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

pspspsps5

Up — $311.95

+$165.13

BoneOhio

Up — $305.81

+$52.32

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