Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Down 61%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$25.25
Smart Money Signal
14 of 24 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 88.3¢ | $760.04 | $793.38 | +$33.34 | 56% 14669-11554 (26223) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $180.1 | $153 | -$27.1 | 55% 15663-13037 (28700) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69¢ | $105.5 | $153 | +$47.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.9¢ | $74.6 | — | -$74.6 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 92¢ | $159.68 | $153.75 | -$5.94 | 60% 12392-8220 (20612) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 73.8¢ | $127.01 | $166.37 | +$39.36 | 50% 5420-5490 (10910) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 91.2¢ | $139.1 | $125 | -$14.1 | 55% 8787-7245 (16032) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 92.9¢ | $143.52 | $116.35 | -$27.17 | 64% 58688-33274 (91962) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Downavg 86¢ | $129.72 | $120 | +$110.28 | 54% 8165-6865 (15030) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 86.8¢ | $105.56 | $110.52 | +$4.95 | 55% 7605-6229 (13834) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 43.8¢ | $109.05 | — | -$109.05 | 58% 38135-27322 (65457) |
13 13897651 | Downavg 60.3¢ | $70.42 | $116.85 | +$46.42 | 59% 6915-4856 (11771) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $37 | — | -$37 | 57% 12630-9701 (22331) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $20.65 | $35 | +$14.35 | 56% 13916-11031 (24947) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $21.25 | $25 | +$3.75 | 58% 60765-44349 (105114) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $19.47 | $33 | +$13.53 | 35% 18938-35934 (54872) |
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR<$100 | Upavg 12.1¢ | $20.31 | — | -$20.31 | 51% 881-855 (1736) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 8.7¢ | $11.67 | — | -$11.67 | 66% 99292-51478 (150770) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $11.55 | $13.75 | +$2.2 | 64% 23991-13230 (37221) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $4.59 | — | -$4.59 | 63% 52172-31048 (83220) |
0X 0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793CTR<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $5 | — | -$5 | 63% 158-92 (250) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $4.07 | — | -$4.07 | 46% 38341-45284 (83625) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $4.45 | $5.56 | +$1.11 | 55% 18044-14641 (32685) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $4.26 | $5.26 | +$1 | 66% 126396-65094 (191490) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 31.5¢ | $3.15 | — | -$3.15 | 55% 45398-37789 (83187) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 55% 24022-19407 (43429) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3662-2839 (6501) |
Invested
$760.04
Value
$793.38
PnL
+$33.34
Record
56%
14669-11554 (26223)
Invested
$180.1
Value
$153
PnL
-$27.1
Record
55%
15663-13037 (28700)
Both legs:
Invested
$159.68
Value
$153.75
PnL
-$5.94
Record
60%
12392-8220 (20612)
Invested
$127.01
Value
$166.37
PnL
+$39.36
Record
50%
5420-5490 (10910)
machinelearnedInvested
$139.1
Value
$125
PnL
-$14.1
Record
55%
8787-7245 (16032)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$143.52
Value
$116.35
PnL
-$27.17
Record
64%
58688-33274 (91962)
Invested
$129.72
Value
$120
PnL
+$110.28
Record
54%
8165-6865 (15030)
Invested
$105.56
Value
$110.52
PnL
+$4.95
Record
55%
7605-6229 (13834)
Invested
$109.05
Value
—
PnL
-$109.05
Record
58%
38135-27322 (65457)
Invested
$70.42
Value
$116.85
PnL
+$46.42
Record
59%
6915-4856 (11771)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$37
Value
—
PnL
-$37
Record
57%
12630-9701 (22331)
Invested
$20.65
Value
$35
PnL
+$14.35
Record
56%
13916-11031 (24947)
Invested
$21.25
Value
$25
PnL
+$3.75
Record
58%
60765-44349 (105114)
Invested
$19.47
Value
$33
PnL
+$13.53
Record
35%
18938-35934 (54872)
Invested
$20.31
Value
—
PnL
-$20.31
Record
51%
881-855 (1736)
Invested
$11.67
Value
—
PnL
-$11.67
Record
66%
99292-51478 (150770)
Invested
$11.55
Value
$13.75
PnL
+$2.2
Record
64%
23991-13230 (37221)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$4.59
Value
—
PnL
-$4.59
Record
63%
52172-31048 (83220)
Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$5
Record
63%
158-92 (250)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$4.07
Value
—
PnL
-$4.07
Record
46%
38341-45284 (83625)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$5.56
PnL
+$1.11
Record
55%
18044-14641 (32685)
Invested
$4.26
Value
$5.26
PnL
+$1
Record
66%
126396-65094 (191490)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$3.15
Value
—
PnL
-$3.15
Record
55%
45398-37789 (83187)
Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
55%
24022-19407 (43429)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3662-2839 (6501)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
Down — $793.38
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $153.75
ply-pm0
Down — $166.37
machinelearned
Down — $125
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $116.35
sfkjbsr457
Down — $120
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $110.52
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
13897651
Down — $116.85