Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

$461.79

Smart Money Signal

21 of 28 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares11,809

Combined PnL+$674.36

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares998

Combined PnL-$212.57

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barrister	Up	$7.8K	$7.8K	+$13.81	56% 3662-2839 (6501)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 76.3¢	$615.49	$800.1	+$184.61	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 78.5¢	$447.13	$493.75	+$46.63	56% 14669-11554 (26223)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 50.9¢	$291.39	$572.62	+$281.24	58% 38135-27322 (65457)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 71.2¢	$357.79	$396.74	+$38.95	50% 5420-5490 (10910)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 63¢	$291.49	$277.05	-$14.44	55% 15663-13037 (28700)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 73.8¢	$206.37	$218.22	+$11.85	54% 8165-6865 (15030)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 51.9¢	$219.42	$120	-$99.42	56% 8113-6259 (14372)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.9¢	$155.06	—	-$155.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.6¢	$64.36	$120	+$55.64
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 74.9¢	$182.55	$154.95	-$27.61	60% 12392-8220 (20612)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 46.8¢	$125.05	$154.14	+$29.09	64% 58688-33274 (91962)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 58.1¢	$122.24	$139.99	+$17.75	56% 13916-11031 (24947)
LI Little-bigCTR	Downavg 47.9¢	$120.15	—	-$120.15	35% 18938-35934 (54872)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 79.2¢	$97.06	$122.48	+$25.42	55% 7605-6229 (13834)
BoneOhio	Upavg 79¢	$121.5	$153.8	+$32.3	74% 102693-36455 (139148)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 80¢	$104.17	$123.25	+$19.07	55% 18044-14641 (32685)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 30.8¢	$97.45	$83.59	-$13.86	57% 12630-9701 (22331)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.7¢	$48.2	$83.59	+$35.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.8¢	$49.25	—	-$49.25
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 90.2¢	$90.62	$87.79	-$2.83	52% 90788-85318 (176106)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 72.5¢	$93.35	$96.8	+$3.45	66% 126396-65094 (191490)
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 87.7¢	$74.1	$58.36	-$15.74	55% 8787-7245 (16032)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 51.7¢	$34.94	$37.48	+$2.54	55% 45398-37789 (83187)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 58.2¢	$29.28	$50.28	+$21	64% 23991-13230 (37221)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 77.9¢	$28.78	$29.91	+$1.12	58% 60765-44349 (105114)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Downavg 34.1¢	$35.29	—	-$35.29	66% 99292-51478 (150770)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 84¢	$21	$20	-$1	55% 24022-19407 (43429)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 50.3¢	$19.5	—	-$19.5	59% 6915-4856 (11771)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$7,809.86

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$13.81

Record

56%

3662-2839 (6501)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$615.49

Value

$800.1

PnL

+$184.61

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$447.13

Value

$493.75

PnL

+$46.63

Record

56%

14669-11554 (26223)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$291.39

Value

$572.62

PnL

+$281.24

Record

58%

38135-27322 (65457)

ply-pm0

Invested

$357.79

Value

$396.74

PnL

+$38.95

Record

50%

5420-5490 (10910)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$291.49

Value

$277.05

PnL

-$14.44

Record

55%

15663-13037 (28700)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$206.37

Value

$218.22

PnL

+$11.85

Record

54%

8165-6865 (15030)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$219.42

Value

$120

PnL

-$99.42

Record

56%

8113-6259 (14372)

Both legs:

Down$155.0651.9¢-$155.06

Up$64.3653.6¢+$55.64

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$182.55

Value

$154.95

PnL

-$27.61

Record

60%

12392-8220 (20612)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$125.05

Value

$154.14

PnL

+$29.09

Record

64%

58688-33274 (91962)

GoodFallen

Invested

$122.24

Value

$139.99

PnL

+$17.75

Record

56%

13916-11031 (24947)

Little-bigCTR

Down

Invested

$120.15

Value

—

PnL

-$120.15

Record

35%

18938-35934 (54872)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$97.06

Value

$122.48

PnL

+$25.42

Record

55%

7605-6229 (13834)

BoneOhio

Invested

$121.5

Value

$153.8

PnL

+$32.3

Record

74%

102693-36455 (139148)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$104.17

Value

$123.25

PnL

+$19.07

Record

55%

18044-14641 (32685)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$97.45

Value

$83.59

PnL

-$13.86

Record

57%

12630-9701 (22331)

Both legs:

Up$48.257.7¢+$35.38

Down$49.2530.8¢-$49.25

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$90.62

Value

$87.79

PnL

-$2.83

Record

52%

90788-85318 (176106)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$93.35

Value

$96.8

PnL

+$3.45

Record

66%

126396-65094 (191490)

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$74.1

Value

$58.36

PnL

-$15.74

Record

55%

8787-7245 (16032)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$34.94

Value

$37.48

PnL

+$2.54

Record

55%

45398-37789 (83187)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$29.28

Value

$50.28

PnL

+$21

Record

64%

23991-13230 (37221)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$28.78

Value

$29.91

PnL

+$1.12

Record

58%

60765-44349 (105114)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.29

Value

—

PnL

-$35.29

Record

66%

99292-51478 (150770)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$20

PnL

-$1

Record

55%

24022-19407 (43429)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$19.5

Value

—

PnL

-$19.5

Record

59%

6915-4856 (11771)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 28 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x99fd26ac...3917e2

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793453700

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Up — $7.8K

+$13.81

uninformedfloww

Up — $800.1

+$184.61

CrouchPredictions

Up — $493.75

+$46.63

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $572.62

+$281.24

ply-pm0

Up — $396.74

+$38.95

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $277.05

-$14.44

sfkjbsr457

Up — $218.22

+$11.85

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$99.42

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $154.95

-$27.61

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $154.14

+$29.09

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